I have no idea who's going to win this November. But I'm hearing too many people tell me Obama's in trouble on too much flimsy evidence. Among my favorites--the claim that the McCain campaign thinks that "the celeb ads are working." So what? What are they supposed to say--Yeah our latest ad really flopped. If you can't tell me that it is working, and what the long-term impact will be, I'm not interested. Really man. To paraphrase Ghostface, cats need to lay back and enjoy the moment, instead pushing for the end of the story.Obama has also been defeated by racism (again). He can't connect and "close the deal" with ordinary Americans too doltish to comprehend a multicultural biography that includes what Cokie Roberts of ABC News has damned as the "foreign, exotic place" of Hawaii. As The Economist sums up the received wisdom, "lunch-pail Ohio Democrats" find Obama's ideas of change "airy-fairy" and are all asking, "Who on earth is this guy?"
It seems almost churlish to look at some actual facts. No presidential candidate was breaking the 50 percent mark in mid-August polls in 2004 or 2000. Obama's average lead of three to four points is marginally larger than both John Kerry's and Al Gore's leads then (each was winning by one point in Gallup surveys). Obama is also ahead of Ronald Reagan in mid-August 1980 (40 percent to Jimmy Carter's 46). At Pollster.com, which aggregates polls and gauges the electoral count, Obama as of Friday stood at 284 electoral votes, McCain at 169. That means McCain could win all 85 electoral votes in current toss-up states and still lose the election.
« McCain as pro-choice | Main | I generally like Chuck Todd » Frank Rich cuts through the hyperventilating17 Aug 2008 10:40 am
Seriously folks, slow down:
Comments (31)
Obama is using the Rope-A-Dope technique on McCain. Everyone gets excited (McCain, Republicans, MSM, Conservatives, etc...)right now, Obama is conserving his energy, taking the punch, and in Septemeber he will whoop McCain. The man knows how to wait for his time (Kenyan heritage), and strike when he has too. Calm Down people, Obama will win this! 
@Whitey: Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if we see a change in pace and tone in a week, when the Olympics have ended and the Democratic convention has started. The most effective way for Obama to respond to the celebrity thing, after all, is to maintain a subdued profile for the time being, when a relatively limited number of people are paying attention to the election. He just has so much more money than McCain, it seems absurd to count him out before he's even been formally nominated. And while I don't want to reduce it to that metric alone, has any presidential candidate ever had so much more cash than his opponent and still lost?
The MSM is made up of idiots who have nothing else to do but write about the campaign 24/7. This means trying to find an angle for every piece, and there's a point when it just gets easier to parrot CW of a couple of dolts like Cokie and act like lemmings. Seeing as how the conventions are coming, I'll wait to see how those play before even remotely forming a preliminary opinion on things....
McCain's still getting a lot of easy passes so far, because of his history in the Senate, his connections. If all of McCain's dirty ads couldn't push his donation totals out of the "record-breaking" 20s, while Obama still took in more than $50 million in July, Obama's not the one in trouble at all. McCain's bag of tricks will peter out, and the oft-feared "October Surprise" will undoubtedly be Obama's because he'll still have money.
I hate to say it but isn't this the old case of the when it comes to blacks? Obama why haven't you gained a ten point lead? Why haven't you convinced bigots to trust you? Why haven't you become less black? Why haven't you become more black? Why haven't you been more specific? Why haven't you been simpler? On and on and on. For him it seems only wining has become a loss. It all seems ridiculous until you take into account that this is the same country that elected GWB twice.
i am certainly not saying this election is precisely like 1980, but still: there's ronald reagan, beloved by the emerging right wing since 1964. there's jimmy carter, a very unpopular president. and yet, reagan didn't really break through until the final week of the campaign. because he won a big electoral vote victory, people tend to forget how close the race was perceived as being right up until the end....
hmm. if the media chooses to ignore Obama's advantage, i don't necessarily see that as all that damaging to his electoral prospects. Are people who are on the fence going to be less tempted to vote for someone because the media tells them the person that they have a preference for is in trouble? (even if he isn't?) If anything, I see this downplaying as helping Obama- people hear stories about their preferred candidate under-performing and feel more inclined to donate or toss in their support than if the media were to convince them that their help was less necessary, which = money + votes. Keep it coming please.
I've seen about 3 McCain bumper stickers this year. That's with a lot of travel in multiple regions of the country. I've seen hundreds of Obama stickers. And those "1-20-09" Bush's Last Day stickers are common, too. There's about as much enthusiasm out there for McCain as there is for wet farts. But he was in Vietnam!
Elections aren't won in the summer: you lay the groundwork then. Looking at Obama and McCain, I'd rather be Obama. He has a lead right now. He has positioned himself to the center. He's got the VP and convention ahead of him that he controls, and then the debates that will really be pivotal in deciding this thing. McCain, meanwhile, has kept it close. How? By solidfiying his base. This entire summer John McCain has been running to the right hoping to get them all on board so he can pivot to the center: but last night showed John McCain has irrevocably tied himself to the Right and GWB. A lot of women haven't realized he's anti-choice and wants all the liberal justices off the supreme court. Dude thinks 5 million is rich, which was a joke but he didn't answer the question, just said he won't raise taxes. Contrast that to Obama who actually put a plan on the table and defended his tax policy. Right now the celebrity ads got McCain coverage; but this election is going to be about character or ideas. The McCain team is fighting to make it about character; the debates and people's self-interest will make it about ideas. And ideologically, McCain has been tying himself to George W. Bush. That's not the way to win this election. JMHO But I think Obama's gonna surprise a lotta people. Can't disagree with those who are carping that he need to get crisper and lose the uhms. Because he does.
And more than just saving his own energy, Obama is saving his supporters'. It's tough to sustain a high level of enthusiasm for months—by the end of the primary, I was happy but needed a break. By the time he kicks it into higher gear, I'll be ready, and my checking account will be, too.
The "Obama isn't winning in landslide" articles also seem to ignore the fact that even as Obama goes up and down in polls, McCain is perpetually stuck at 40-42. That's the 30% dead-enders + the 10% McMavericks.
Karl, I think that's the narrative for whichever poor soul gets the Democratic nomination every four years. Al Giordano has coined the term "armchairmen" for the chicken littles critiquing each move in August--August! Always nice to have historical perspective on poll numbers. This summer Obama hasn't fall below 44 in daily tracking, and McCain hasn't risen above 44. The race is close (as were the last two, so no one really has any business being surprised) but not fluid. Polling before the 2 conventions doesn't mean a whole lot. Here's an interesting thought--Nate Silver says the usual post-convention bounce is 6 points, and we can roughly judge the effect of the conventions by how much they exceed or miss this mark. The Dems seem set to have a great convention, frankly--I believe the Hillary stuff will get lots of people watching, but there will be no sad and embarrassing attempt at a coup. Bill and Hill can lay their blessing upon the next generation. The Republicans, in contrast, are hiding their convention on Labor Day weekend, hoping no one will notice. (With a surprising number of paranoid sorts like Libby Dole staying home just in case someone does look.) Can they possibly get a 6 point bounce out of a secret convention?
Thank you. My confidence was a eroding in the past month until I read this.
Word. The media has been so wrong on this issue it reminds me of another Ghostface quote "buncha smart dumb n***as round here...."
Nobody ever said he had to break the 50-point mark. And over the past two days, Gallup's had Obama and McCain tied. There are reasons to be sanguine about Obama's chances, I suppose, but Rich doesn't really offer any.
Whom Obama and whom McCain picks for VP will decide the race. On that count, Obama has far more margin for error than McCain. Obama needs to A. sew up the Democratic vote and B. not look too far to the left. McCain has to A. appease the flaming right wingers in the Republican party and B. not appear to far to the right AND C. create the illusion of separation from Bush. That's tough to do. Obama can pick a general or a southern-ish running mate and piss off the Hillary crowd or he can pick Hillary and piss off Andrew Sullivan. What's McCain going to do? Romney's a Mormon so he's out - Lindsay Grahm and Charlie Crist are closet gays - so they're out. Who's left? Obama's got a lot of work to do but regardless of what the polls say, this is his race to lose. As for Cokie Roberts and the Economist, see their comments before the invasion of Iraq and judge their credibility as prophets. Hint: they suck at it.
2000. 2004. It's happening again. Between Right Wingers controlling media narratives, weak-willed reporters and their masters, GOP Diebold voting machines, and other assorted bullshit voter suppression, we may be doomed again. More money this time (although let's face it, McCain will have way more to spare) and flooding the zone with voter registration combined with a realization of the horrors of the last 8 years may get it done this time, but we shall see. They're doing it again, it worked the last two times. One is hopeful.
I agree with those who say that it's far too early to sweat this. Obama has shown himself to be a very shrewd and disciplined campaigner with a great team. Dude beat the Clintons - a non-trivial thing to do in politics. Have a little faith. He hasn't started hammering McCain yet. But it will come, probably once there is a VP candidate to do more of the attacking. Then there will be several likely lines of attack: 1) McCain has been an American hero and dedicated public servant who has served his country for over forty years, but is too out of touch with the modern world (e.g., his Czechoslovakia comments, Iraq bordering Afghanistan, etc.) to effectively address the needs of a radically changed world. 2) McCain is running for Bush's third term, and is in fact inclined to double down on Bush's most reckless and short-sighted policies. Keep showing McCain's awkward hug of Bush. Ask people if they feel better off than they did four or eight years ago, and then if they want more of the same. 3) McCain vs. McCain. He's been all over the place over the last 8 years. First as an opponent of Bush, now a sycophant. First opposing Bush's tax policy, now for extending it and even making it more regressive. First for comprehensive immigration, now against it. These ads can hurt him with the base and independents simultaneously. Win-win! Obama is going to have tons of money to spend and McCain is vulnerable. I still think this will be a close race because the Republicans did succeed in nominating the one person in their party who might have a chance because of his cachet with independents. But he's pigeonholed by having to run as a Bush-style right-wing Christianist hawk, and that will ultimately cost him with those folks. Relax everyone. Everyone except the political junkies is watching the Olympics and trying to decide which back to draft in the first round of their fantasy football league. We have a long way to go.
The overriding factor that some people skip over is that the economy is not favorable for the incumbent party. People can argue whether or not we are in recession, for Presidential politics, that distinction is irrelevent. The economy is performing poorly enough to indicate a change in party. People talk about the Bradley effect or the Wilder effect, but there is also the "Money talks, bullshit walks" effect. Independents and wobbly republicans who are facing financial stress are going to walk into the booth, think about their paycheck or home value and are going to take it out on the party in control. I think it will be similar to some of these ballot proposals out West that promote a well polled liberal idea (health care for kids, pre school for all, single payer), but when it comes down to paying the money, the voters opt to keep the money in their pockets and against the tax increase that comes along with these initiatives. Also, the intensity factor does help Obama, like others, I see very few McCain bumperstickers and I am in a conservative district. Among those I know, McCain was not in the top two or three choices in the primary, so there are conservatives who see him as a bit too liberal and appeasing of Democrats
The Republicans should definitely start to incorporate these "Why isn't Obama winning by a larger margin" themes into their campaign ads. Very Serious Announcer Voice: "John McCain is a decrepit old windbag despised by his own party base. So why is Barack Obama only leading by 3 points in Ohio?" [Cue sinister music] "Could it be because Obama grew up in a strange and exotic land called Hawaii? It's hardly even part of America. The natives run around in primitive clothing they call 'swimming suits' and bathe in the sun all day. How can you expect the hard-working white people of Ohio to connect with a so-called Hawaiian?"
Ed, you are very wrong. McCain will still get the votes of religious fundies, since Obama is pro-abortion. But the rest of us don't like him much. He is a RINO, bad for business, he favors amnesty for illegals, opposes free speech, and he's also an angry moron. To quote a conservative, "what kind of idiot wants to ban ultimate fighting, then goes to a boxing match?" The main reason to vote is to vote against Obama, not for McCain. But nobody hates Obama. Conservatives disagree with him, but hatred is what brings out the votes. As long as Michelle shuts her yap, people won't hate Obama. Plus, at least some conservatives will vote Obama just to punish the party for Bush/McCain. It's in the bag for Obama.
So this might sound odd but bear with me. Bob Dole didn't beat Clinton in 96 I don't think McCain will beat Obama in 08. I think McCain has more in common with Dole than the Republicans want to think about.
For the latest in (in this case predictable) Obama-handicapping, see Krugman's latest. It's a stinger. He zings him for not praising Clinton, William J. enough.
Can they possibly get a 6 point bounce out of a secret convention? I just hope there's a nice new Bush/McCain photo op. If that's the case, the Dems might get a 6 point bounce out of it!
sorry, but most of you are way off-base and drinking the obama kool-aide.
Hubris, Frank? I think that's what he's worried about. Obama is always called the "presumptive Democratic nominee." When you're presumptive, it's dangerous to be presumptuous, especially when you're young and relatively new on the scene. I think he's being very careful to avoid looking arrogant, even though the nomination's locked up, to avoid looking like he thinks it's his by birthright. After all, we had another Democrat who acted like that recently, and look where it got her. But once it's official -- and the convention's only a week away -- once he's no longer presumptive anything, then he'll have no reason to hold back. Then we'll see what he's made of.
steve t, yes, hubris.
Hubris, Frank? I think that's what he's worried about. Obama is always called the "presumptive Democratic nominee." When you're presumptive, it's dangerous to be presumptuous, especially when you're young and relatively new on the scene. I think he's being very careful to avoid looking arrogant, even though the nomination's locked up, to avoid looking like he thinks it's his by birthright. After all, we had another Democrat who acted like that recently, and look where it got her. But once it's official -- and the convention's only a week away -- once he's no longer presumptive anything, then he'll have no reason to hold back. Then we'll see what he's made of.
Odd. How did that repeat post happen? I certainly didn't intend it. Anyway, I don't think we really disagree. Yes, the "arrogant Obama" meme is BS, but the point isn't what he is, it's what McCain wants us to think he is. But the real fight's starting bell has not yet rung. Maybe Obama's a fool, maybe he thinks a charm defense will hold off the Repub attack. But we don't yet know. After both conventions are over, battle will truly be joined. Then we'll find out.
steve t, yes, we will see.
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I tend to think that McCain is busting out the kitchen sink a bit too early, and Obama is just letting him use up what bullets he has. It's a risky game McCain is playing, considering that he depends so much on maintaining is maverick reputation to get by. If the usually fawning media begins to question him, he gets his legs knocked out from under him.
Posted by Whitey | August 17, 2008 10:57 AM