11:38 Damn, a brother can't even get in a jog without news breaking. Sarah Palin it is.
9:53 TNC headed out for a run. I'm in beautiful Denver and haven't gotten any miles in since I've been here. Back in an hour or so. Remember--Only you can fight forest trolls. Do the right thing guys.
9:42 CNN is reporting that sources point to Palin. Mostly by process of elimination, it looks like.
9:00 No Sarah Palin, looks like. Cats are talking Joe Lieberman. God, I so hope it's him. Do it. Do it. Do it.
8:32 Now they're talking Ridge. On another note, damn those freecreditreport commercials are annoying. When did corny-ass music become a credible sales pitch? I'm so out of touch.
8:25--NBC is talking Sarah Palin. Chuck Todd says Romney and Pawlenty are out. I wanted Romney, and I thought Pawlenty was the best bet. But apparently it's neither. Damn, I really wanted to see a Romney vs. Biden debate. Biden would have decapitated him.
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"Biden would have decapitated him."
You mean, "Biden would have sonned him."?
I actually take Rush at his word when he says a pro choice VP would destroy the Republican party. My father in law (wingnut) was saying as much last night. Sooo looks like Palin, maybe Jindal the Exorcist.
Please be Sarah Palin. She has scandals out the wazoo in Alaska. She got her brother in law fired out of revenge. Joe Biden wont hurt her too bad in the debates. If it is Tom Ridge or Joe Libermann a lot of Christian Conservatives will be staying home.
"When did corny-ass music become a credible sales pitch?"
The question is...when wasn't it?
Surely you remember "Stephen L Miiiiiiles....Let's talk about it!"?
My hope if it is a pro choice pick, we might actually see a viable third party, all be it a fundamentalist Christian one... but I think that would be good for conservatism and of course, progressives.
Is there a reason everyone on the planet seems to have forgotten that Rob Portman is already in Dayton? The conservative darling?
Andrea Mitchell just sonned Scarborough for floating Colin Powell.
Amos,
I think "sonned" only works in the past-tense, maybe not. It's weird these things have rules, but you have to think about them to figure it out.
If the Christianists and social conservatives left the Republican party, it would be great for conservatism.
So how do we know it's not Palin?
Do it! Joementum!
@ Mark: None of us know who Rob Portman is. We keep thinking Natalie.
I will be truly shocked if it's Ridge. Just a couple months ago, he got called on not registering as a lobbyist when he was serving as an advisor for the Albanians. The Dems know this. "Unregistered Lobbyist" is going to be on him like an albatross if he gets the pick. It would destroy whatever's left of McCain's maverick cred.
"God, I so hope it's him. Do it. Do it."
Please, please, please. I would leap up and dance a damn jig right here in the middle of the office.
"So how do we know it's not Palin?"
MSNC is reporting that she's still in Alaska and will be unveiling the "new quarter" today.
please not a woman. dem women--low info dem women, will be up for crabs.
Me too. Lobbying aside he's also very hard of hearing. I can't imagine McCain of all people has forgotten how poorly James Stockdale came off on TV in the 1992 debates because of his hearing problems.
"Please, please, please. I would leap up and dance a damn jig right here in the middle of the office."
Now you know how I felt when I heard Obama picked the idiot blowhard Biden.
Anyone know the whereabouts of South Carolina senator Lindsey Graham?
"please not a woman. dem women--low info dem women, will be up for crabs."
Freudian slip?
I don't think he's stupid enough to pick Lieberman. I think that guy is election poison. If it's Ridge, I'd like to see someone ask him about his reason for leaving Homeland Security. At the time he said that his son (I think it was a son) was going to go to college and so he needed to go out and make more money than his government salary.
Dammit, blogosphere, aren't we supposed to be pretending to be, er, no, actually being terrified of a Lieberman nomination! It would devastate the Democratic Party! It's horrible!
My $$$ is on Liberman, why else would Rove have come out so publicly against. Its their shot at separating from Bush. Look America, even Rove hates him, he ran againt Bush etc.
Seems to be a lot of inconsistencies regarding what Palin's doing today. I think she's more likely than Lieberman. She's probably his riskiest choice but also his best hope at winning this thing.
Anyone know where the Huckster is? He would secure the Bible-beaters and sucker in some swing voters who think he's nice and folksy.
I don't agree that Dem women would defect for Palin. She's anti-choice and has about 20 minutes of experience (so it would be obvious she was an affirmative action pick); also isn't Alaska "exotic" - it's closer to Russia than the rest of the states - or maybe it's part of Canada?
Good points about Palin: Female. Younger, so could follow McCain. Governor, so executive experience. Western. And McCain's large family, including an adopted child of another race, plus Palin's large family, including a child with Downs sydrome, is an appealing picture of ourselves as a nation.
I don't know enough about her policy positions and actual governing experience to know how she helps or hurts there.
But wasn't there a scandal with her brother-in-law brewing?
One more shot with Persia: Not Lieberman! We would be defenseless against the Joementum!
Picking Palin or Lieberman would be one of those "Stop the Presses" type picks that would steal some of the thunder from last night, but they both have longer term risks. Someone like Ridge is both boring and alienating(due to his abortion stance).
While I think Romney was a bit oversold, I still thought he would have been the pick because he is liked by conservatives and fits the suit.
One other thing: Because Palin has a large "who?" factor, she would take over a share of the news programs in a way that "so, it's the Mittster" would not.
To Dan's point on risk and winning--McCain needs to take some risks to turn his respectable second into a win. In that sense Palin is a much smarter pick than the others tossed around. (I refer everyone to Douthat's blog on "not Romney, but not any of these other people....some different person" for Republican thinking.)
It's like a wealth of good choices ... for the Dems.
I'm not worried about Palin. If they pick her, they will have the double whammy of alienating the misogynists in their party (cue typical conservative complaining about "affirmative action") and .... come one, she's anti-choice. There will be a sea of women leaders denouncing her. I really don't expect she'll gain much traction with Clinton voters.
It would also be way too easy for Hillary Clinton to denounce Palin's record on choice in an ad or speech, if she was motivated to do so. Which I think Clinton would be.
Palin would be an awesome pick! Remember what Hillary said, sexism pwns racism!
Picking her sounds like they are over estimating the potential effect of disenfranchised Hillary supporters. The die hard number is insignificant at best.
Ambinder the McCain Hack has two planes onroute tied to the McCain camp headed from Alaska to Dayton.
Amusing to see how many possible Eepublican VPs are attending state fairs and the like. Presumably they calculate that it's easier to get lipstick on a real pig than to apply the same treatment to John McCain and his lame campaign.
I'd be really surprised if it's Huckabee. Supposedly McCain just effing hates the guy for some reason. Which is good, because if they got along Huckabee would be the best choice by a mile IMO.
I dunno, Breukelyne. She'll get a lot of media attention, snag a few PUMAs and keep the base relatively happy. Certainly moreso than a Morman, an Indian, a Jew, or a pro-choicer would. She's hasn'nt always toed the party line, so she adds to the "marverick" thing. Biden won't be able to be as forceful in the debates without looking like a bully. I don't think she's a game changer, but I think it's a well-played pick, if that's who he's going with.
Damn. I really wanted Mittens.
Palin's pretty much in line with McCain on oil, and the pick would underscore that as an issue--which is probably good both for mobilizing Democrats and recapturing the gas-price framing of the economony debate that was a little sidetracked by the houses debacle.
"Picking her sounds like they are over estimating the potential effect of disenfranchised Hillary supporters. The die hard number is insignificant at best."
Especially considering how the time to do that with a VP pick was before the convention.
Well, it is good to know McCain thinks Obama now has the experience to be commander in chief, since being mayor of Wasilla (population 5,500) and governor of Alaska for less than two years is enough. Or do black men need more experience than cute white women?
I would have preferred Jindal for his sharp mind and his domestic policy chops. Jindal would have been better at helping run the country (I know VPs really have little formal authority, but I could see a foreign policy guy like McCain delegating an issue like health care, and Jindal is an expert on health care policy), but Palin might be better at helping McCain get elected. She's got the reformer thing going for her, she's photogenic, she's a woman, of course, and she seems to actually like to do all the sorts of outdoorsy stuff that GOP candidates like Romney pretend to like to do to appeal to the base.
I think the only downside to Palin is the possibility that Biden will beat the crap out of her (metaphorically) and come off looking like a bully in the process.
Do not underestimate the amount of hot water young mothers who show themselves to be politically ambitious can get into. For reference see: Jane Swift. I'm not saying it is fair, or misogynistic, but it happens.
This is a pretty risky pick. She's been governor for about as long as Barack's been running for President. And she's already got an ethics investigation, which provides a great opening to rehash Heating Five.
Then again, the only thing I think McCain *can* do at this point is go for a Hail Mary. So from that perspective, it's probably his best play.
Re Jane Swift: I live in MA, and I felt her stock went up when she became acting governor while pregnant. (Her early days at Lt Gov were marred by "either she's venal or really, really naive" scandalettes.) People could see having a kid while Lt Gov and we weren't going to go to war with New Hampshire, so she was cut more slack. She wasn't considered a good bet to win by the Republicans, who got her to step aside for Mittster, but that was more to do with her never being particularly inspiring as lt or acting gov, not the kids issue. YMMV
I think this is a really smart pick. He looks much, much more gutsy than Obama. If he's going to win, he's going to have to take some serious risks, and this is certainly a good place to start. And I think it certainly will help him with women.
As an Obama supporter, I wish it had been somebody else, myself.
Did McCain not get the memo that Palin's under investigation for corruption in Alaska? She may be fresh, but it seems to me that it's even easier to tie the ticket to Bush with Palin on the ticket.
Palin abused her power to get her brother-in-law fired during a tough custody battle. Similarly, the Bush administration has frequently engaged in nepotism and corruption in its use of the courts. The Harriet Miers incident isn't a particularly different beast. As I see it, this opens up the ticket to the abuse of power attack line, one that it wouldn't have been particularly vulnerable to if it had been McCain and a cleaner candidate (Pawlenty?)
God bless you John McCain. This wasn't the worst choice you could make, but it's pretty awful.
She's the one-term governor of a state with a population less than Barack Obama's Illinois state senate district. She's served less than half a term, and is even being investigated right now for abusing the power of her office. And Barack Obama's not experienced enough?
It is to lulz.
So much for that whole "experience" thing John McCain's been running on. The entire pick reeks of political pandering, a vain attempt to win over "dissaffected Hillary supporters" that belies a total ignorance of actual women voters.
It's the sort of foolishness you see echoed on Ross's blog, where he echoes Noah Millman's hope that having a woman on the ticket will draw in those guilty white liberals. Oh, and she also neutralizes Joe Biden because if he attacks her he'll seem "ungentlemanly." Yeah, these guys really get women voters.
It's Geraldine Ferraro Mk. II. It's Dan Quayle in drag. Time for Barack and Michelle to start picking out new curtains for the oval office.
Also, I fail to see how this pick is "gutsy" so much as reckless. Palin is extremely conservative, and fits right into the standard Republican message. A pro-choice candidate would have been gutsy. It's a bit gutsier than a Pawlenty or a Mittens, but I fail to see how this upholds McCain's maverick image. What, because it's a woman and it's the Republican Party? I don't buy that one. She's a governor of one of the smallest states in the Union. Moreover, doesn't this just make it even easier for Obama to hit the Republicans over big oil?
Hmmmmm, Repubs like to say Obama got the nomination because of Affirmative Action. But in the end, who did AA benefit the most? The white woman.
Life imitating life.
Dear Obama Supporters (I am one):
You underestimate Palin at your own peril. The first hint of a sexist attack on her risks re-energizing the dissapointed Hillary supporters. Also, because she is a hunter and fisher(woman?), she has the cultural cred to pick off independents and conservative dems in Michigan, OH, PA, etc. I'm telling you, in my mind this went from a 65% of Obama winning to a 50/50 in my mind by this pick. And it's not like a one term senator with no executive experience can call someone 3 years younger than him with executive experience inexperienced to be an executive.
The choice of Sarah Palin reeks of cynicism and sexism. It's fresh meet for Clinton-Crazy PUMA's, sure, but how shallow does he think the rest of us lady Dems are? I mean, really?
You, John McCain, are truly as shallow as I thought you were.
Asparas is whistling past the graveyard.
We've got a woman married to an Eskimo who has a kid with down syndrome, and chose to love him and not abort him when she found out the results of the test. And McCain himself has an adopted Bangladeshi daughter. How's that for diversity for you? Plus she and her husband have had real jobs, the sort where you get dirty: commercial fishing, oil drilling, etc. Not like Michelle Obama's six figure diversity sinecure at the U. of Chicago's hospital. On top of all that, Palin's got a kid in the Army. Add that to McCain's two kids who are serving and you've got Biden's kid's service lapped three times.
McCain and Palin versus two blowhard lawyers, neither of whom has ever had a callus on his hands.
She's pro-life, she (very) photogenic, has a big family, is from the west, and is a woman. In short, she's got the surface bona fides that could potentially satisfy both evangelicals and enough PUMAs to hurt Obama in places like Florida and Ohio.
Of course, she could also turn out to be a flash in the pan. Still, it was smart politics for McCain to pick her - at least in the short term.
I still think it'll come down to who has the best ground and legal teams, though.
Just heard Wasserman-Shultz on MSNBC lay out the case against Palin, no experience, pro-life, beholden to big oil, corruption investigation and used that to open culture of corruption message re: ted stevens and alaska.
Between Hillary, Sebelus, Wasserman-Shultz(she is red hot and willing to throw down), McCaskill they will chew her up woman vs. woman.
I'm more than a little surprised he turned his pick into a political stunt/hail mary instead of a serious one for the future of our country.
Blue Moon makes some good points. I don't see how a good VP pick adds that much juice to a ticket, although McCain's is more important than Obama's because McCain is so old. Palin is a great choice for McCain and as an Obama supporter, worries me a bit.
But as someone who is waiting for politicians who call themselves 'conservatives' to come upon the national stage without acting like or becoming authoritarian, statist dickheads, I think we could do worse than Palin as far as the future is concerned.
Christ. Did Pawlenty let slip that he's sleeping with a Thai rent-boy and thus it would be a bad idea to pick him?
Palin governs a state with a population smaller than a third-tier city and has done so for barely two years. Up till two years ago she was mayor of a town with the population of less than 10,000. She has a degree in journalism. She makes George W and Dan Quayle look like Benjamin Disraeli.
The idea that she would be to become leader of the most powerful nation on Earth if McCain choked on a pretzel would be laughed at in any semi-respectable banana republic.
Wow.
"Just heard Wasserman-Shultz on MSNBC lay out the case against Palin, no experience..."
T-N C's colleague Jeffrey Goldberg made a good point: Palin has more executive experience than Biden or Obama, neither of whom have run any organization larger than a Senate staff (McCain ran the largest squadron in the Navy, so he had some executive experience there).
PhillyG:
But there are millions of people who feel the same way about Obama regarding readiness-- that's the thing. Like I say at least 4 times a week - senators don't DO anything. At least she's run a state, something McCain, Biden and Obama can't say.
Another perfcet example of executive decision by focus group. All the positives listed by Fred may look good on paper, in the same way Lieberman looked good on paper to Gore. That doesn't change the fact that the most important duty of the Vice President is to be able to take the reigns of the executive branch in an emergency situation. Even Biden's critics admit he can do this. Can Palin? The Democrats should, and will, relentlessly ask this question over the next two months - to great effect.
Okay, so now the Republicans will have the gull to claim that Obama doesn't have enough experience when they pick a former Miss Alaska contestant as their VP pick to an old man with a history of cancer? I'm sorry, but an VP pick to McCain had better be ready to be President day one. This is an unserious pick for political show and not for governing in serious times.
Kudos to Palin for being a governor, but she's only been doing it for a year and eight months. Obama may be somewhat lacking in experience, but he's had an opportunity to prove himself by holding his own against experienced people like Hillary, Biden, Dodd, Richardson in numerous debates and by manning an extremely well-run campaign.
Blue Moon:
I know they feel the same way about Obama - but how does this reinforce anything in McCain's message? I mean McCain just spent the better part of 6 months shouting at the top of his lungs the importance of experience to being President, hell, Hillary Clinton did the same thing too - now if you're a Republican how do you look at that ticket and say "Yup, McCain's right about experience," if you're a Clinton voter who is thus far dissuaded from voting for Obama how do you look at Palin and say "She's just like Clinton only without the experience, story, issues, and talent."
It just smacks of desperation to me.
I hate the argument that Palin's status as a woman and as a newcomer should force Biden to hold back. Given the state of sexism in our society, it's probably true that Biden has less leeway to personally attack Palin than a male opponent w/o looking like a villain. But, calling on the depth of his knowledge and experience, he can and should defeat her soundly in any policy debate. Engaging a woman in a robust policy debate is not sexist; refraining from doing so is.
This pick will get a lot of previously unconvinced pro-lifers fired up for McCain. Don't underestimate the narrative power of Sarah Palin refusing to have an abortion when her child was diagnosed with Down Syndrome.
It takes away McCain's ability to directly attack Obama on lack of experience, but I'm not sure how much it matters because that meme is already out there. Yes, McCain picked one of the greenest politicians possible to be the person to take over the presidency if he becomes incapacitated (which is more likely for him than for most presidents). I still think that a lot of people will be able to cast their ballots for him, tell themselves that it's because Obama is too inexperienced, and never even have a moment of cognitive dissonance.
Putting Biden and Palin head-to-head in a debate turns the "change" message upside down. Palin will look refreshing in comparison.
Palin is young (relatively speaking), cute, and white -- exactly the kind of person the mainstream media want to fall in love with. And they'll start now, blunting the impact of Obama's speech and the convention. *Maybe* they'll look into the ethics charges (I don't know anything about them, myself) but it's at least as likely that they'll let themselves be charmed by Palin and gloss over the whole thing.
It's probably the smartest move McCain could have made, and it makes me extremely nervous.
Blue Moon said" You underestimate Palin at your own peril. The first hint of a sexist attack on her risks re-energizing the dissapointed Hillary supporters.
This realization hit me after reading that it was official, perhaps one of the reasons is to inoculate Republicans against charges of racism. Sooner or later, some jackass on the right is going to make a sequel to "The Lost Michelle Obama Tapes" that TNC posted about recently. McCain will be called upon to condemn this, and I am sure he will. But he may parry by tossing back an allegation of sexism (real or imagined) back at democrats, forcing them to do the same.
I see this pick as high risk/medium reward. It doesn't totally remove the experience arguement, but it severely weakens it.
Watching the networks, it's amazing how little any of the commentators actually know about her. Unknowns are very scary.
Quite the counterstroke to the historic convention this week.
People talking about how this could handicap Joe Biden, please stop. The VP candidate's job on the campaign trail is to go after the other side's presidential candidate. How often does a VP candidate seriously go after another VP candidate? I'd wager a guess that it happens once: at the VP debate. What's more, nobody gives a shit about the VP debate. Lloyd Benson kicked the shit out of Dan Quayle 20 years ago, but that seemed to matter very little in the eventual outcome of the election. The Obama/Biden campaign can simply put out a fact sheet on Palin, and run out a surrogate everytime she says something dumb, and they will run little risk of being or sounding sexist.
This isn't a tough problem to overcome.
This knocked out the celebrity attack, too, so I'll give some credit for switching tactics. And I'm glad to see that one (and the liberal "McCain is too a celebrity" comeback) laid to rest.
I predict they'll stick with the attack of "but do we know him?" which was never leveled at the far more unreadable Edwards but seems to never lose traction against a black candidate.
It's too early to say how she'll come across after a few "getting to know her" weeks, but I'll echo the advice not to knock her for her gender. Dems pay way too much attention to identity politics as it is. Let Wasserman-Schultz lead the attack, get Hillary and Claire in there....I think this will work well for Dems, but it was a pretty good pick from a poor field.
Biden won't even need to risk being aggressive in the debates. He'll just need to trot out his policy chops and let her come off as a lightweight on her own.
Seems like a dumb, dumb pick the more I think about it. In my opinion Obama's inexperience is the biggest drum McCain has to beat and he just conceded that whole argument. The mayor of Indianapolis has more constituents than Palin. She's only been a governor three whole weeks longer than Saddam's been dead.
This pick will get a lot of previously unconvinced pro-lifers fired up for McCain.
Doesn't matter, they are always fired up for the Republicans since the Democratic candidate is always pro-choice. McCain could be caught sleeping with a young boy, and the hardline pro-lifers would still vote for him. To them it's the only issue that matters. The only thing McCain could have done to screw that up would have been to pick a pro-choice VP candidate.
This pick will get a lot of previously unconvinced pro-lifers fired up for McCain.
Really good point Jen R. I think this also brings the SCOTUS issue and roe v wade into the discussion and it has seemed like Dems didnt want to go there.
Listening to McCain's intro now, it makes more sense...she is a union memember wife of a union member, this pick was as much about cleaning up his I dont know how many houses I have while wearing $500 shoes as it is about Obama. Joey Biden cancells that working class bit out I think.
I'm only disappointed that its not Lieberman or Romney. But McCain isn't that dumb. Checked the box marked, "none of the above".
Doesn't matter, they are always fired up for the Republicans since the Democratic candidate is always pro-choice.
They're a difference between "not voting for the other guy" and "being fired up". I foresee *much* more fundraising, volunteering, and overall enthusiasm now.
(By the way, does anyone else find that checking the "Remember personal info?" box has no effect?)
"(By the way, does anyone else find that checking the "Remember personal info?" box has no effect?)"
Yeah, it's like that for everyone on all the Atlantic blogs for some reason.
"All the positives listed by Fred may look good on paper, in the same way Lieberman looked good on paper to Gore."
What? Lieberman basically had one thing going for him: he was a moral scold signaling Gore's break from the tawdriness of Clinton's extracurricular activities. No one was fired up about Lieberman.
As for the criticisms of how long Palin's been governor, at least she has been a governor. What's the biggest organization Obama's run? Anyone?
Referring to yourself by your three initials is 76 percent worse than doing so in the third person, which by itself merits a night in jail.
And McCain himself has an adopted Bangladeshi daughter.
Yeah, I'm curious to see if she'll ever actually appear on the campaign trail. Meghan has her own blog, though!
"Yeah, I'm curious to see if she'll ever actually appear on the campaign trail."
She already has been up on the podium with McCain, but since she is only 16, they don't let her talk to the press. Meghan is a grown woman.
"Referring to yourself by your three initials is 76 percent worse than doing so in the third person, which by itself merits a night in jail. "
Point taken. Never again.
The biggest organization the Obama campaign has run? The Obama campaign. A far larger operation than McCain has ever found himself at the head of (that includes both the Navy and the McCain campaign).
"The biggest organization the Obama campaign has run? The Obama campaign."
Sorry, David Axelrod has been running that. He specializes in African American candidates who appeal to whites. See, for example Deval Patrick, the man whose campaign for MA governor Axelrod ran.
Obama has been running his own campaign like W ran his.
As for the criticisms of how long Palin's been governor, at least she has been a governor.
Of Alaska. For about ten minutes.
Has she ever even been to Washington DC? Has she ever been a legislator? How is she going to be able to perform her duties as Chairman Pro Temp of the Senate with absolutely zero relevant experience?
Chet,
You parade your ignorance (again), so I'm going to have to "son" you.
"How is she going to be able to perform her duties as Chairman Pro Temp of the Senate with absolutely zero relevant experience?"
First, the position you are referring to is President pro tem of the Senate (short for President pro tempore), not "Chairman Pro Temp", and second, that position is filled by a sitting Senator, not by the Vice President. In most cases, the actual role of that job is delegated to junior Senators anyway. The main (and rare) role of the Vice President, in his or her position as President of the Senate, is to cast a tie-breaking vote.