McCain still pushing the celeb angle. I disagree with Eric on the race angle. It's just hard for me to buy that the mere presence of a white women in the same space as Obama would change a substantial number of votes. If the entire election were in Tennessee, maybe. But as a national strategy?
Anyway, I thought it was funny. Maybe too funny. Like so over the top as to not be taken seriously. But again, I've never been an undecided. If you are, in fact, undecided, please post and let me know what you think of these ads.
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Cute, but it's not going to win votes. Between the Paris/Brittany ad, the stream of silly negative ads, and now this dumb ad, McCain no longer looks like a serious person, and that's ground he can't afford to cede.
I think his attack strategy is dumb (though it may really be all he's got since it seems like he can't speak with ramming his foot into his mouth up to the hip). Also, according to the Gallup polls average to reduce statistical noise, it's not working.
Time to actually get substantive, John, if you're even capable of doing so. (Did he ever put up a detailed position on the topic of overall foreign policy on his web site? Nothing as of a couple weeks ago.)
These ads have worked historically, but not in the way you think.
I don't believe anyone is arguing that the racial content of these ads move 20% or more of the white voting population. They ARE arguing--and this is born out historically by the data--that these ads tend to influence people who are on the fence.
And this makes sense right? In an election like this where the distinctions are fairly stark, the "wafflers" are likely to be people who don't really follow politics a great deal and may be pushed in one direction or another by a whole host of subliminal considerations. Race has to be foremost among them here.
I can't believe that this is an actual ad produced by an actual candidate for President of the fucking United States. Jeeezus.
More please, Lester. I'm willing to be convinced. But I'd need to see more proof. It strikes me that if you're going to vote for McCain because Obama was in an ad--that McCain produced--with a white woman just seems a stretch. Wasn't that guy gonna vote for McCain anyway?
Don't Americans like celebrities? A lot? But, alas, they're both celebrities. Barack channels Bono while McCain channels Grandpa Simpson.
The problem with these arguments about subliminal messages is that you can find them in anything if you look hard enough, so if you function this way you're going to get a lot of false positives. Witness Orlando Patterson's silly op-ed about how Hillary's 3am ad was racist.
Speaking as a Jew, my people have gotten pretty good at playing this trick, and for all I know we even got there first. You can take any criticism of a Jewish person and, if you look hard enough, discover that what they're REALLY saying is that he's greedy or manipulative or some other anti-semitic trope. Similarly, you can take any criticism of a black guy and find a hidden message that he's uppity or lazy or angry or whatever.
This doesn't mean there's no racism, of course, any more than it means there's no anti-semitism. What it does mean is that once you get down to the level of parsing subliminal messages, it's just an impossible claim to prove either way, and I find that uncritically accepting such claims just rewards the kind of silly people who see racism in every single thing.
Out of touch young white guy commenting here. What if the add isn't racial at all? It seems like McCain has taken the Obama-Kennedy analogy a bit too far. It's almost like his campaign wants to portray Obama as a camelot glitz and glitter popular young guy running against your crotchety old grandfather who drinks too much jack-daniels and yells out random things.
To carry the celebrity analogy a bit farther it's like the Burgess Meredith from Grumpy old men is running against the Tom Cruise from Risky Business.
This is McCain attempting to bait Obama with an ad that's borderline, but still deniable. His goal is to keep race and "The Race Card" talk alive and well going into November. To that end, Ta-Nahisi is to be commended for not taking the bait, while Erik swallowed it right up.
Wait for them to more blatantly cross the line. They will, they're desperate.
Hi, definitely not undecided white guy commenting here.
I agree that this one is actually funny, but really bordering on farce.
If these ads are working at all, the whole point is to get some attention for the wrinkly old white guy. And, sadly enuf, that seems to be working.
But I'd be zen, it's still only August and most undecideds will not begin to pay attention until the Olympics are over.
And, as I was going to reply to Gayle over on that locked thread (great call, by the way, I could have wasted the rest of my day reading that stuff), Obama is leading by any rational reading off the polls.
As Nate at fivethirtyeight.com has shown, having a big lead at this stage is not necessarily an advantage. We need to stay MOTIVATED to keep the wrinkly old guy's finger off the trigger and the SCOTUS.
I hope you all follow my drift (stop blogging so much and GOTV).
I can't believe that this is an actual ad produced by an actual candidate for President of the fucking United States. Jeeezus.
I concur. This ad is downright petty and beneath the dignity of someone seeking the highest office in the nation.
(Disclaimer: I'm not "undecided".)
John McCain has lost his fucking mind.
I'm torn between two thoughts here. The first is a tip to Mr Coates: "They are who we thought they were." Very simple.
The second is we are being played. I think that because it lacks the voice over on all the sites I've seen it. Nor does it appear on the official McCain site. I've only seen it as Youtube.
If you can document it elsewhere let me know
I agree with dannity. Whether the ad is racist or not, somebody involved in the decision to air it has their fingers crossed that Al Sharpton/Jesse Jackson/Bob Herbert will be out there protesting it tomorrow. And then John McCain can come across as so very empathetic with those poor hard working folks who feel like they can't even cross the street any more without being called racist. And there's really nothing that Obama can do about it.
Hopefully he'll win anyways though.
When people wanted McCain to stick to one talking point for more than one day, I don't think anyone expected it to be the juvenile celebrity meme.
The Georgia situation re-enforces, in case people forget, that we have serious issues facing our country and McCain seems stuck in some name calling campaign more expected in a local city council race. Not in a presidential race.
One other thought, and this was even referenced by Trent Lott of all people: Only dogs hear dogwhistles and the whistler can easily deny he was ever whistling.
Ta-Nehisi,
The next stop in this progression is a 'CALL ME' Ad. It's so obvious - the race angle.
We all knew that the White Women were coming. After all, Fear of the Black Man is all they have to play.
Here's the deal. Political scientists have used experiments to persuasively show that whites exposed to crime stories involving black male criminals (vs. white male ones), exposed to welfare stories involving black female welfare recipients (vs. white ones), exposed to campaign ads featuring black families (vs. white ones), cause white respondents to (among other things):
*exhibit support for more punitive approaches to crime
*exhibit support for more punitive approaches to welfare
*exhibit more support for Bush (in the case of white women)
The way it works is through "priming". Whites have certain attitudes in their heads about blacks. And framing stories in certain ways make certain attitudes more prominent. Decisions are then made on the basis of those attitudes.
Here are some citations that test the effect of racially coded ads/messages on public opinion:
Mendelberg, Tali. 2001. The Race Card : Campaign Strategy, Implicit Messages, and the Norm of Equality. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.
Hutchings, Vincent L., Nicholas A. Valentino, Tasha S. Philpot, and Ismail K. White. 2004. "The Compassion Strategy." Public Opinion Quarterly 68 (4):512-41.
Gilens, Martin. 1996. ""Race Coding" And White Opposition to Welfare." American Political Science Review 90 (September):593-605.
Gilliam Jr., Franklin D., and Shanto Iyengar. 2000. "Prime Suspects: The Influence of Local Television News on the Viewing Public." American Journal of Political Science 44 (3 (Jul. 2000)):560-73.
There are more. This effect isn't seen in all cases--if you're manipulating race in experiments it's hard to get effects with black respondents. And it doesn't work for all issues. But the gender/race fusion going on here is pretty powerful, even though implicit.
Ta-Nehisi if you're interested in some of these articles shoot me a line. I can give you one and then tell you how to read the charts and what not.
The ad just looks amateurish. Like the kind you'd see run for a city council seat or possibly the state senate. I have little patience for political ads to begin with, but I couldn't last five seconds into this one.
Dino Rossi runs better ads than John McCain, which is saying something.
@Lester.
Nick Valentino was my professor at Michigan. He is smart. I approve of citing him. In case you were wondering.
"I can't believe that this is an actual ad produced by an actual candidate for President of the fucking United States. Jeeezus."
So which one of those guys was you?
Do people still have and carry around with them these antiquated ideas about "white" virtue and "black" boorishnees? I thought that those particular prejudices had been put into the dustbin along with Eugenics, Tab, and denying the Holocaust.
Seriously, maybe I am just not aware but I thought that America was past such "Birth of a Nation" style racism. Sure some people may still continue to believe such things but aren't such people at the margins of society along with those who don't believe that smoking causes lung cancer?
I think the Obama ad on McCain's celebrity was better composed, funnier, and more memorable. Lovely use of McCain's wobbling from left to right with a great reversed shot. That ad nailed McCain because it had a light touch, was funny, and pinned McCain firmly to Bush. The McCain ad strikes me as tiresome and contrived, without much in the way of subtlety. Equally, Americans generally like celebrity - unless it is obviously corrupt or vicious. That's why linking McCain to Bush and lobbyists adds bite, while McCain's vague rumor-mongering doesn't help.
Too farcical to move anyone, I would think - but then, I'm not in your undecided group.
From my own perspective - this is supposed to put someone off voting Obama? Really?
What the fuck?
This ad is all about turning out the base for McCain without hurting himself with independent voters who won't see anything but an over the top ad from McCain.
HRC won a lot of voters who were dead set against voting for a republican but wouldn't vote for a black man. The race DID become race-based and it hurt Obama at that point. This is just a way to create that same controversy that hurt Obama's poll numbers with the "racist" fight that just happened.
IMO this is a cheap way to get people to come out against Obama. It's step one to maintaining parity which was why the Obama celeb. ad was IMO just as slick: it was all McCain-Bush which reinforces those who are just against Obama to be against Bush and just stay home while also turning McCain off to Independents.
Race is definitely a major issue for the Obama campaign; but then again it is for any "first" black to go anywhere. The campaign has a great strategy: they're registering their way into a win and pulling in as many voters as they can. Race is an issue in Appalachia particularly; but overall it doesn't hurt him as much unless this race becomes all about Obama rather than all about Bush and the state of this country.
I can't say I'm not nervous. I was on pins and needles and NEVER expecting the definitive win that Obama had in Iowa. And then crushed by New Hampshire....and on and on through this death march to the white house. I'm always afraid that at the end of the day racism will be the bigger factor. That in the privacy of the voting booth people won't pull the lever. But what this campaign has done is restore my faith in the possibilities for African Americans. It's become cliche but I have so much more hope now on what can happen in this country for a black man or woman. I'm praying that more black people will step up and go for city council, start organizing in their own neighborhoods, and recognize their own political power.
But to get back to the McCain ad: this is all about race. It's not as explicit as that Ford ad, but it's the same damn thing. And it's aimed at the Northeast and South.
One other thought, and this was even referenced by Trent Lott of all people: Only dogs hear dogwhistles and the whistler can easily deny he was ever whistling.
This is about continuing the not-so-subtly inserted anti-Christ meme more than the celebrity one, hence constantly referring to him as 'The One' and the ongoing use of the botched logo. In 'The One' McCain co-opted the dropped seal and now it's steeped in his Anti-Christ framing; viewers may or may not even know that the Obama campaign invented it, not the McCain campaign.
The silly 'Celebrity' veneer on this one is a cover for imagery and terminology that invokes the darker religious meme. It's why the original Celeb ad came out so close to The One ad; its a covering from which to insinuate an attack you can't explicitly make. If the imagery stirs up discomfort in voters, that's all that's needed. People don't need to believe he's the anti-Christ; they just have to worry that he *could* be.
First thing this ad does is call him "The One". Second thing: invoke a unified world idea. Third? The Beetles (who don't forget were "Bigger than Jesus"). Throw in that seal that you've already co-opted to the meme and add some quotes about tearing up, perhaps the idea that his charisma compels people to action they might not otherwise take.
Call me crazy if you want, but I grew up in a town full of the exact sort of voters this is targeting. A lot of them have been considering Obama, but you get them spooked with end-times rhetoric and they will run to the safe option. These are otherwise reasonable people, but they'd vote Stalin if they believed the alternative was the anti-Christ. This meme is incredibly powerful against Christian voters, and not just the ones already proudly marching lockstep with Dr. Dobson.
Pro-Obama white guy here:
This ad looks obviously cheap in both its message and its production values. I have no idea who it's supposed to persuade. The sneering tone is such that no genuinely undecided person could take it seriously -- it just sounds like an inside joke between members of McCain's flock. The Paris/Britney ad was much slicker. The Obama campaign should totally ignore this one.
There is one reason why we shouldn't totally dismiss this ad as ridiculous: the raising taxes on anyone over $42,000 thing. The whole ad screams: "Hey, we're not making a mean attack! This is just parody, like Wayne's World! It's funny; relax, you humorless arugula eaters!" But then in the middle of it is this out-and-out lie, both about what Obama actually voted for and about the fact that his proposed tax plan as president gives significantly bigger tax cuts to middle-income households than McCain's does.
I think the ad is a Trojan horse. We're supposed to get caught up in discussing its tone and images because they're both so inane (and Kerry's right, if they're really lucky someone will "play the race card" and McCain will win super-extra bonus points). And meanwhile, that tax-raising thing has been repeated one more time, and insufficiently debunked one more time. Silly or not, if this ad makes the idea that Obama will raise taxes on anyone making more than $42,000 seem even a little more "true" in the eyes of the American public, it's not funny at all. It's the kind of thing that wins elections.
Ta-Nehisi: "It's just hard for me to buy that the mere presence of a white women in the same space as Obama would change a substantial number of votes."
Mere presence, agreed. Talking about his "soft eyes", no question.
Agree with Dannity. They're trying to bait him.
John McCain hosted Saturday Night Live, did a cameo in Wedding Crashers, and has made scores of appearances on Leno, Letterman, and Stewart. He's a hypocrite to whine about Obama being nothing more than a celebrity.
It's obvious to anyone paying attention that John McCain is a mentally unbalanced, knuckle-dragging neanderthal. McCain, like George W. Bush, is the anti-gravitas presidential candidate.
He offered up his trophy wife as red meat to a bunch of drunken bikers at one of their bacchanalias.
It would be a profound tragedy for the country if we elect clueless, dimwitted John McCain to the presidency.
@Mark
Bacchanalia? What are you, some kinda damned elitist? Keep your words to three syllables MAX, please.
Ta-Nehisi--I was doubtful about the appeal to wronged white womanhood in the last ad this came up in, but this one pushed me off the fence on whether or not McCain is using race. Specifically, the last 5 seconds, where they put in the girl talking about his soft eyes and the guy talking about how "hot chicks love Obama". It doesn't even fit with the rest of the ad--why else would they include these lines?
This ad will totally work, because Americans hate celebrities. Now excuse me while I go watch American idol...
Seriously, though, I think professordarkheart makes a good point. The real damage of the ad, such as it is, will be on the taxes point. Americans hate taxes (hell, in some readings the Revolution was more or less based on hatred of taxes), and they've been conditioned to believe that Democrat = high taxes, so McCain calling Obama a tax-raiser's not a bad strategy on his part. The fact that it's not true isn't really relevant - it just has to be believable.
I absolutely second Dannity and Kerry. There is a dog whistle here, and it's aimed specifically at people who might accuse McCain of race baiting (they pray it happens publicly in that black preacheresque cadence and rage = JACKPOT).
This is all just killing time until Votin' Day. Everyone's decided by now.
The irrelevant plebians are hopefully amused.
I am not an undecided either - seriously, how many undecideds are reading things like blogs at the Atlantic? - but the problem with this type of attack is that it will be seriously undone by the debates. Maybe this line of attack has traction now, but once Obama shows mastery of the issues facing the country face to face with McCain, then any value this attack had will wither quickly. Obama is nuanced and persuasive and whether you like him or not, he knows his stuff. This is the kind of attack that will make them feel good about themselves now as they hang close, but will lead to an even larger bounce for Obama coming out of the debates, when there will be nothing left to be done about it.
Meh.
Whatever this ad is going for, it's not working.
Whether a dog whistle (I doubt it in this ad) or a snarky joke or political attack or that type of self-referential humor that McCain goes for sometimes ... it just can't decide what it's doing, so it's spectacle enough in itself to just be entertaining, without a lot of political teeth to it. We've already seen what a repugnant ad run against Obama looks like, this one seems so puny compared to say, the 3-am-vote-for-Obama-and-YOUR-CHILDREN-WILL-DIIEEEE ad.
Then again, I do think Barack's got a nice smile...
I take it that the stuff about white girls finding Obama sexually attractive is the purported dog whistle here. It's possible, but the McCain campaign could have just as easily taken a similar tack against John Edwards. Still, it's hard to believe that McCain has stooped to airing drivel like this. The McCain folks are awfully brazen about using lies about Obama's policy positions and voting record in their advertisements.
Just going with my gut instinct, the feeling I get from this ad is that McCain is an asshole. This is the kind of response to a challenger an envious teenaged asshole would make, once they find out they can't kick his ass the usuall way. It's like when someone is losing at some game and they flip out and get all personal. If this kind of crap actually works with american voters I'm moving to Canada in dispair.
Just going with my gut instinct, the feeling I get from this ad is that McCain is an asshole. This is the kind of response to a challenger an envious teenaged asshole would make, once they find out they can't kick his ass the usuall way. It's like when someone is losing at some game and they flip out and get all personal. If this kind of crap actually works with american voters I'm moving to Canada in dispair.
Where's the little disclaimer at the end that says "I'm John McCain and I approved this ad"?
I think this is a hoax ad designed to get Obama supporters riled and as dannity & others said, hope that some take the bait. Instead of Swift Boaters, these guys who made this ad must be Red Carpet Sniffers.
Pretty poor production values, really schlocky. Rove better tell these guys to tighten things up a bit if they want to be on his 527 team.
I don't see much of a racial angle on this ad. It seems like it ridicules Obama voters more than it hits at Obama by portraying his people as cult like followers.
If anything, maybe it is trying to fire up right wing Christian voters by planting into their minds that there are some who are worshipping at the alter of a mortal man instead of an immortal being. But then again, maybe I have had one too many Jager's tonight and I am reading too much into these stupid ads.
Yup. I'll be disappointed with your savvy if anyone convinces you different on this, you are thinking right, the subliminal theorists are losing all sense of reality here to the point of ridiculousness. No way this new McCain team would be spending money on getting votes they already have; they have the racist vote locked up, as there is nothing Obama can do about the color of his skin. Oh, there's going to be some kind of a Bradley effect, to be sure, but it's not going to due to people worrying about the sanctity of white women because they got a subliminal message from McCain's ads, that kind of racism is a bit more complex.
Sure but it's just that Grandpa Simpson types prefer the type of celebrities where your average guy becomes a war hero, rather than rock stars with female groupies. You know, think along the lines of Jimmy Stewart or Gary Cooper movie roles where he goes through hell and comes back a hero, but still humble and self-deprecating but with more wisdom and a sense of humor and maybe, like a "maverick" sensibility? Humility and self-deprecation: some like it in a celeb, go figure.
Funny just so happens there's a lot of Grandpa Simpson types in states like, um, Florida. And they vote, absentee from the nursing home if necessary.
JT Chicago, I believe this was released as a web-only video; the "approved this message" only needs to show up in spots that run on TV.
"I can't believe that this is an actual ad produced by an actual candidate for President of the fucking United States. Jeeezus.
I concur. This ad is downright petty and beneath the dignity of someone seeking the highest office in the nation"
I'm going to echo this. This is most certainly beneath the dignity of a presidential election. That was my immediate and very strong gut impression.
And, for the record, this white guy doesn't buy the "racial" angle at all. I'm going to do a little projection and say that a good 99% of white people aren't going to even notice this "angle", if there is anything there to notice. (Can't really speak for the out-and-out racists, though, so...)
Jeez, are you people really this afraid?
Personally, I can't stand either of these guys, but I'm hoping for gridlock.
And, I can't believe that anybody here is seriously concerned about the dignity of the presidency. Have we been watching the same parade of scumbags in that office?
I don't think this ad is trying to appeal to racism at all. It's just playing off the (legitimate) idea that Obama's all personality and no substance. And, that much of his support is made up of stupid sheep following the crowd in support of somebody who's flashy and dreamy, but doesn't have a record in national politics.
It seems to be effective because it looks like it's generating a lot of worry in supporters who watch it.
Jeez, are you people really this afraid?
Personally, I can't stand either of these guys, but I'm hoping for gridlock.
And, I can't believe that anybody here is seriously concerned about the dignity of the presidency. Have we been watching the same parade of scumbags in that office?
I don't think this ad is trying to appeal to racism at all. It's just playing off the (legitimate) idea that Obama's all personality and no substance. And, that much of his support is made up of stupid sheep following the crowd in support of somebody who's flashy and dreamy, but doesn't have a record in national politics.
It seems to be effective because it looks like it's generating a lot of worry in supporters who watch it.
This is the best ad I've seen all day! I'm definitely voting for the guy they're all talking about.
Here's the thing... the McCain brain trust is trying to turn Obama's celebrity into a negative, right? But they're posting these ads on YouTube... where a Beyonce slip-and-fall gets 4 million views.
Wrong medium for the message.
You know, I don't think defining him as "The Other" (via celebrity elitism) is actually the point of the attack-- I think they're attacking his base of support, the sense of movement and enthusiasm. They're attacking him as a vehicle for hope.
I think it's reasonably successful.
Here's something to consider RE: miscegenation.
So Barack's got these really heart-warming ads showing his white mother and white grandparents. For that population of voters for whom explicit or subliminal fears of miscegenation could dissuade them from voting for Obama, don't Barack's own ads raise the miscegenation issue more directly than anything McCain's run so far?
Imgaine an add run by a Democrat that shows this type of contempt for the other side's supporters. I agree with cw's comment above that what this series of adds demonstrates most of all is that John McCain is a dick.
Im undecided and independent (always been registered as such).
I think while they may be funny, they are childish to the point that they are discouraging.
Just ask yourself this - "How can a serious candidate for President of the United States, particularly during this very important time of security and economic uneasiness, waste valuable time and money on (and put his name on) such juvenile tripe?"
Should not I question that judgement? This belongs in a race for senior class president, not for the leader of our nation and the world against the extremist threats of modern day.
@Riise
I was at Michigan from 87-00 (BA, PhD). And Nick Valentino is a good friend. I approve you claiming him as your professor.
In case you were wondering.
I agree with you Ta-Nehisi. The Celeb ad was not racist either. I'm black and there are things that you can point to that are outright insulting, like 'Obama/Osama is there a difference?' signs. But this is not one of them. People need to lay off calling everything racist. It's annoying.
i am constantly amazed when apparently bright people ignore what has been going on historically and politically for the last 40 years.
the white women in the ad did not get there by accident or happenstance.
just like that seemingly nude blonde in the harold ford "call me" ad was not there by coincidence.
they are simply appealing to the same instincts in a more or less subtle way.
but the idea that the ad was simply meant to be humorous, or funny, without the racial implications is stunningly naive.
these people have been making a living doing this same crap over the last generation.
they are professionals at it.
the fact that they have signaled that they are prepared to do anything to win, and that this type of ad would surface should tell anyone all they need to know.
wake up.