This topic crops up once a month it seems. And so we have a furious debate, again, over how much racism will cost Obama in November. Hmm, well it'll probably cost him something, but this seems to me to be a giant unknowable. I also agree that there are some transperency issues here.
But there iis something else here also--Obama, as a black man, has to have already considered all of this and just put it out of his mind. Most black folks can't afford to sit around and calculate how much racism is actually affecting their lives--it would be like a running back going out and thinking, on every play, about how hard he was going to get hit. We have to live. So the bottom line for me, and for a lot of black Obama supporters is simple--the kid has to win. He just has to do it.
Frankly, I'm tired of hearing about white racists. I don't want Obama out there playing to them, but at the same time I don't want the rest of us living in fear of them. Put plainly--fuck a racist. I will not spend days worrying over some knucklehead in Ohio who's convinced himself that I'm the reason he got laiid off and his kids are failing out of school. That dude is gonna do, what racists do--something stupid. The question is what will the rest of us do?
The Beautiful Struggle: A Father, Two Sons, and an Unlikely Road to Manhood 
Copyright © 2009 by The Atlantic Monthly Group. All rights reserved.
Yes, only about 15% of White Republicans described Black people as “determined” — but it certainly seems possible that those being polled are generally misanthropic, and would describe White people the same way.
This is not to say that there’s not bias against Black people. I think certainly there is more and subtler racism than most people think. But this study doesn’t reveal it. There doesn’t seem to be any control here, asking about White people, or people in general. If the same 85% of Republicans who wouldn’t describe Black people as determined also wouldn’t describe White people that way, then we may have cynics, not racists.
Or am I wrong? Can some science/statistics person help me out here?
The racial vote is largely only interesting if it takes the form of a Bradley effect. Then we don't really no where the race is. To the degree that the racial vote is already figured into the polling data that is available then it is not really any different than the no-flag pin vote.
And my suspicion is that the Republicans (and to a degree Clinton before them) did a good job of giving the racists a non-racial rationalization for their votes, that the Bradley effect is unlikely.
If the racists have already convinced themselves that they are not voting for Obama because he is a secret muslim marxist corrupt Chicago politician elitist, then they have already been counted as for McCain.
Nope, you're right Benjamin. You don't get any sense of context from the study.
Did you know that Rush Limbaugh has accused Obama of "racist-baiting"? Hee hee.
Here's some excellent discussion of the so-called "Bradley" (or "Wilder") effect:
The always excellent 538.com.
Mr. Coates' colleague Mark Ambinder.
Nut graf:
Obama (and Plouffe, Axelrod, et. al.) are well aware of race and voting tendencies. They knew they couldn't win Appalachia, and their internal polling matched the primary results very closely (closer than the public polls, who breathlessly pondered racial influences throughout the primaries).
Racists will not vote for Obama. And we don't need them to: we got the electoral votes we need, fuck the racists.
Excellent post and attitude, imho. Why change tactics to please the haters? Why fret, worry, and fear because of ignorant, prejudiced people? Life's too short, we have too much good work to do to dwell on that.
Hey Ta-Nehisi
Once again, Nate Silver does the knowledge: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/allocating-undecideds.html
So, based on primary data (I know you love data) Obama may underperform in certain states (Ohio being one of them) he will probably overperform in others, like Virginia.
But yeah, fuck a racist indeed
the "obama would be be at 87.8847% if he weren't black" thing is a waste of thought and time. he is black, or half-black, half-white, bi-racial, tri-racial, or an 'octaroon.' but, he is a so called "black" man in america. why do people feel compelled to do the 'what if...'scenarios? if some people are going to vote for obama or not vote for him solely on the basis of the color of his skin they are fucking dimwits.
under the dimwit umbrella are the sub-groups of racists, ignoramuses, dolts, dullards, dunces, fools, village idiots, suburban idiots, exurban idiots, illiterates, morons, nitwits, nimrods, wingnuts, numbskulls, simpletons, wise-asses jack offs, and quarter-wits, to name just a few.
the color of skin. can you imagine that people would vote or not vote for someone on that basis alone? where are the socio-anthropologists when you need them?
trying to know the unknowable is the jurisdiction of the gods, not man.
If you read the accompanying article on the methodology they claim to have figured out that Obama would be 6 points further ahead but for racism. Considering the tremendous closeness of the last two elections, I think it calls the whole study into question. Does anyone really think if it were Edwards and not Obama we'd be looking at a landslide?
Yes, I think Obama will be damaged fatally by the anti-black vote. So be it.
I really don't get the point of this study. They seem to have determined that some people are willing to admit racial stereotypes (about everyone) to pollsters--woop de dang doodle. We knew that. And yet, rather than use this to undercut those who say there is no racism, they want to try and demonstrate that Obama is secretly losing the election.
This wasn't a Bradley effect--no reason to think that the polls are not accurate. (Nod to exceptions from 538, see JG's link.) It just seems to be an attempt to set off a bunch of chicken littles "oh noes we had best not nominate a black until we have determined that a black can win, which we can't do until a black wins.... oh noes we are going to lose, I shall sit home and pout out the rest of the election."
Obama wasn't supposed to win the primaries. He wasn't supposed to win Iowa, land of white people who would never vote for a black. Signs the race would be close: the last 2 elections were close; the Rs went with McCain who is independent- and crossoverDem-bait; and unnamed Dem v unnamed Rep always outperforms specific Dem v specific Rep, an illustration that the Rs know how to win elections. Yet we're constantly asked to devolve into a tizzy that Obama isn't ahead 80-20. I think that must indicate a press desperate to report on something horseracey and not finding the required horserace in actual election developments.
"Does anyone really think if it were Edwards and not Obama we'd be looking at a landslide?"
Disregarding his baby drama, yes, I do.
The best revenge is that racists are largely suffering from economic decline and social marginalization: they have no future. Their kids move away, except for the most burdensome ones. Their lives get worse and worse. It's almost too much punishment for a thought crime, but I'm not going to lose any sleep over it.
Right on, TNC. So, there are racists out there, Andrew put it best on Bill Maher's show on Friday, "if you think there are racists out there who will yank this election away, go out and get 10 friends to vote." Boom. That's how we're gonna win.
The Hidden racist Vote is still active, but less so than in the past 4 years. White people will have to decide between avoiding an economical crisis and voting for the black guy or going into an economical/financial and social crisis and voting for the old confused white guy! Crisis focus the mind!
"... Obama, as a black man, has to have already considered all of this and just put it out of his mind. ..."
But Obama as a politician can't put it out of his mind if he wants to win. He or his advisors will be thinking about how to reduce McCain's margin with racist voters. Just as McCain or his advisors will be thinking about how to increase it. And vice versa for black voters. In a close election you can't afford to ignore any major voting blocs.
I feel you, Ta-Nehisi.
I can't get obsessed with American racists cos there is real work to do to make sure Obama gets elected despite them. Every single time I read about a racist who won't vote for him or another truly diabolical McPalin move, I just feel more determined to work my ass off for Obama--canvassing, registering voters, calling folks, fundraising, giving.
I have never felt so politically motivated in my entire 38 years. This is do or die for me. The racists and mcpaliners cannot win. Not this time. This is my country too and I want it back.
I will be one of the happy ones as the results roll in on the night of November 4th. There is no other option.
racism a problem?
yeah, a little bit of one. not a decisive issue, though. i think recent elections have shown that black candidates can achieve despite that latent racist vote that will always be there.
i'm much, much more concerned about voter suppression and crooked electronic voting machines.
if obama doesn't win, despite favorable polling numbers going into the election, THAT will be the reason, not hidden racism.
Sure you can. Just as McCain is ignoring liberal "elites" (i.e., reasonable people), African Americans, and, apparently, Florida Jews (who turn out to be less than pleased with Gov. Palin's connections to "Jews for Jesus," for some reason), Obama can ignore the Rush Limbaugh listening, born-again, Revelations awaiting, xenophobic racist voters. McCain can have every single one of them AND IT WILL NOT WIN HIM THE ELECTION.
It's all about electoral votes. Screw the southern racists and the Christianist nut-jobs. There aren't enough of them in the swing states to be "fatal" to the Obama electoral math.
"Racist-baiting" is one of the all-time great stupid phrases... my wife shot wine (elitist) out of her nose when I relayed it to her.
What's really fascinating to me is the level of self-deception among some whites. I have several in-laws in places like Ohio and Tennessee who have given us the most transparent, contorted, BS about why they can't vote for Barack even though they are Dems.
We're still working on them.... but not "worrying" about them.
BB
Yes, Frankie D, I am VERY WORRIED about voter suppression shenanigans & the like. Does anyone know what massive plan the campaign and various related groups have in place re this issue? I'm sure there's a plan, but we might have to step it up a bit. The story about the evildoers (aka republicans) trying to disenfranchise folks going into foreclosure in Michigan was just the tip of that iceberg, bet.
See here and here to feel a little more confident about this.
He's on it.
Stacey,
Did you also think Gore and Kerry would win.
""Does anyone really think if it were Edwards and not Obama we'd be looking at a landslide?"
Disregarding his baby drama, yes, I do. "
If it were Edwards instead of Obama I'd stay home.
Deborah,
"He wasn't supposed to win Iowa, land of white people who would never vote for a black."
If you're still trotting this bit of conventional wisdom out, it means you don't get the real dynamic. White people who live in places with virtually no blacks have better opinions of blacks than whites who live in diverse areas, for reasons that should be obvious after a moment's consideration.
Ta-Nehisi: "Fuck a racist" took me right back to sitting on the wall in front of the Towers. I haven't heard "Fuck a [person/place/thing of disrepute]" in ages.
Also, I think the fact that Fournier (probably gleefully) wrote the AP story on the study says a lot about its importance, or lack thereof.
Kerry would have been 6% better off if he were more comfortable in his own skin, rather than trying to imagine what needed to be to be the perfect presidential candidate.
Better a candidate who has the experience and the guts to realized that he need not pander to some people!
i'd feel a lot more comfortable about the efforts at fighting voter suppression and bad voting machines if the national party talked about it and made a big issue of it.
it baffles me why every democrat - from al gore to john kerry and every other democrat who's been screwed by rigged voting - does not scream long and loud about this issue.
one of the best ways to prevent this type of thing from happening over and over again is to expose it, by constantly talking about it. the reluctance of democratic politicians to confront this issue is one of the great mysteries of the last 8 years.
simply hiring lawyers and filing a lawsuit doesn't do much good. kerry supposedly had plenty of lawyers in ohio, ready to plead his cause and for whatever reason he made them stand down in the face of real questions about the integrity of the vote.
they need to take more proactive steps. obama and every national politician needs to make explicit and regular statements about this problem so that if it does happen again, it does not look as though they are simply whining about a loss.
the more i think about it, the more this thought comes to mind:
i think that the "bradley effect" and the possibility of a hidden racist vote is being put out there by republicans to prepare the country for a huge disparity in the polls, the exit polls (the real ones before they fix them), and a mccain upset win.
call me paranoid, but i have every expectation that they will try to steal another election. if they lose control of the justice department, lots of people might be looking at future prosecutions and prison time. this is very, very serious stuff.
being able to argue that a "hidden racist vote", rather than vote rigging and electronic machine chicanery, caused the unexpected mccain win would go over very well with the media. and probably derail any serious examination of exactly what happened.
again, call me paranoid, but i don't think this issue just started bubbling up, innocently, and because the media and republicans are just oh so concerned.
As an Obama supporter in Florida and active in various programs (GOTV, precinct walking, etc.) I can say that we rarely, if ever, even discuss the racist vote. We are actively focused on registering new voters, putting volunteers to work, etc. There is still much to do and to waste time discussing whether racists will impact the election is just not something we have time for.
Last Friday a group of us did a sign-waving event on a major intersection in Tampa, FL for about 2 hours. During that time I would guess the responses were about 10-15:1 that were positive. Out of the negative responses we received, there were only a small number that were considered inappropriate or possibly racist. We received a handful of 'f*** you' and a few one-fingered salutes but, then again, we might have received those responses if we had been suporting a white candidate.
We don't have our heads in the sand. We know there are racists out there and I have come across a few, who assure me that "my guy" won't serve because he will be "taken care of." But there are so many people, of all ages, color, etc. that are excited about Obama and the number of people who were genuinely happy at seeing us with our signs was a boost to our morale as much as it was to theirs.
"I will not spend days worrying over some knucklehead in Ohio who's convinced himself that I'm the reason he got laiid off and his kids are failing out of school."
I agree and all but it isn't nice of you to single my Uncle Russ out like that.
Honestly, who fucking cares.
Speaking for my white brethren, they aren't afraid of a black president quite as much as they are afraid of any kind of change - woman, Jewish, someone who likes to wear hats, you name it. They won't see things differently until the change happens and then realize it's not so bad. I don't vote for Obama for black americans (y'all can do that for yourself), I vote for Obama for white americans who are afraid of every fucking little thing that shows up. Part of me secretly wishes Obama was gay and a Muslim just to clear up as much stupid shit as possible.
I mean, that's really the problem with appalachia - not that Obama is black necessarily, but that he's different. They just don't do different in the hills. There's really no point trying to win them over. That's really what that 'small town values' piece on the Daily Show during the RNC convention was all about. Nobody could articulate what small town values were, but what they are is simple: 'Are you like me?' No, then you're a threat.
"If you're still trotting this bit of conventional wisdom out, it means you don't get the real dynamic. White people who live in places with virtually no blacks have better opinions of blacks than whites who live in diverse areas, for reasons that should be obvious after a moment's consideration."
Looking past the racism, cynicism, and pomposity that is embedded in the words above, the statement itself is not factually accurate. I know whose words I’m quoting but I’ll give this a shot anyway.
In the primaries, polls and the voting tallies did show that Obama did well in states with very few black people. Polls and voting tallies also showed that Obama did well in states with the largest concentration of black people. Obama did the worst in state with sizable but still limited numbers of black people.
The reasoning given at the time seems quite reasonable to me. States with few black people allowed Obama to present himself to white people who feel secure enough in American society to vote for him. These people may never have spoken more than two words to a black person, that much is true and thusly they don’t fear Obama's candidacy. But states with the largest numbers of black people also allowed Obama to present himself to white people who feel secure enough in American society to vote for him. These people have lived amongst blacks their entire lives, if they aren’t hard-core racists who probably would vote Republican anyway; they have already successfully dealt with issues of race in their own minds.
It was those states like Pennsylvania and Ohio, states that have sizable but still limited numbers of black people that he did worst in. Here white people have to interact with black people but only to limited degrees. It’s this middle-of-the-road posistion that runs over an Obama candidacy, at least in the primaries where a more desirable Democratic alternative was available. These are the white people, who may be more progressive in other ways but still fear the possibility of a “black takeover”. They have racist attitudes that might be inflamed by the presence of blacks in numbers enough that they have local power, politically speaking. But the black population is not high enough that it forces such whites to either realize blacks are really no different than them in terms of their desires for America…or pushes them into the arms of the not-necessarily-racist but very-comfortable-with-racism GOP.
I thought the same thing when I saw "fuck a racist"...
Aint heard that in a while!
Nuada, you're wasting your time with Fred (but not with the rest of us). He has trotted out that same line in several other threads. I threw my 2 cents in a couple days ago...I like your take on this as well.
"I will not spend days worrying over some knucklehead in Ohio who's convinced himself that I'm the reason he got laiid off and his kids are failing out of school."
But that dude could determine the future of a lot of people's children.
"I will not spend days worrying over some knucklehead in Ohio who's convinced himself that I'm the reason he got laid off and his kids are failing out of school."
I agree with you completely, Ta-Nehisi. Neither do I care to argue with people who are somehow convinced that Democrats are Communists, or that Creationism is science. These people are unmovable by facts. Let us instead concentrate our efforts on convincing the convincable. Thinking people are the current that moves you where you need to go; these others are just rocks in the stream.
I'm tired of listening to all this white racist talk. What about the black racists? Yes, there is such a thing. If 90% of blacks are voting for Obama it has to do more with something other than his views on issues.
The racist vote you should be writing about is the black racist vote. Many african americans are democrats, but never have 96% of them voted for one candidate. Indeed, black conservatives are being pressured into voting for Obama. "Uncle Tom," "Sell-Out," "Whitey" are just some terms being used by the black community against any black voting for McCain. The black conservative DJ from Ohio is getting death threats from other blacks.
Identity politics are clearly in play in the african american commmunity. Racism is also at play whereing black conservatives are having to choose between inclusion in their own community or exclusion.
This strategy was used by the white racists against white citizens that tried to vote Republican in the 1940's and 50's. The term "n-lover" was used against any white that participated in the civil rights movement. The progressive Republican whites were ostracized much like black conservatives are being ostracized currently.