I'm too young darlin, and your too old, but
That don't mean that you got no soul...
--The Ohio Players
What continues to stand out for me about this Palin pick is it's essentially passive-reactive nature. McCain's biggest concerns seem to have been killing Obama's convention bounce, coming up with a counter to Joe Biden and generating some "heat" around the pick. Contrast that with Obama's criteria--no drama, someone he's comfortable with, someone who will be a capable, and independent, adviser. What we are seeing is one strategy based on reacting to external forces and another based on acting according to internal forces. As in life, the trouble with making moves according to forces beyond your control is that those forces shift. They're also subject to your misunderstanding. Obama chose a VP that he felt--rightly or wrongly--would be good for him. McCain picked one whom he felt would be well-received,
In fairness, despite all these "Everything Is Good For McCain" stories, the fact is that Obama can afford an aggressive strategy. In reality his "working class white people problem" is no worse than any other recent Democrat's, and the PUMA deal is now being exposed as an internet mirage. Obama has a relatively excited base, and a country looking for any reason to dump the GOP. Those factors have greased the machine--the social networking, the voter registration, the organizing--making it much easier to be aggressive.
Meanwhile McCain is dealing with a base that truly mistrusts him. Whereas Obama has no real history of beef with NOW, Planned Parenthood and Emily's List, McCain's problems with the power-brokers of his party are legendary. It's true that many women (up until now) may have thought McCain to be pro-choice. But the other part of that meme is that many conservatives don't see McCain as warrior in the anti-abortion fight.
When you're outgunned, outmanned and on unfavorable terrain, you start employing tactics that aren't under your control. You depend on cable news to carry your message to states you can't afford to advertise in. You pick a VP--not according to your needs--but according to desires of a base that doesn't like you and a media that will turn on you as soon as the narrative shifts. (Think on that--for all the talk about PUMA, Obama's base was secure enough that he didn't have to pick Clinton. It's McCain who's been forced to play to the base with a VP pick) And you announce that pick---not after she's been carefully vetted--but according to your desire to stomp on some mythical, irrelevant "convention bounce."
I was reading this really well-reported Times story today on the vetting process and was stunned by this section toward the end:
That is incredible to me. Basically they put making a lot of noise above insuring that they're VP didn't do them harm. Again, maybe this is what you do when you're running from behind. In that sense, I guess you can't fault them. But if they wanted the noise, they're certainly getting it now.A number of Republicans said the McCain campaign had to some degree tied its hands in its effort to keep the selection process so secret.
"If you really want it to be a surprise, the circle of people that you're going to allow to know about it is going to be small, and that's just the nature of it," said Dan Bartlett, a former counselor to President Bush and an adviser in both of his presidential campaigns.
Former McCain strategists disagreed on whether it would have been useful for Ms. Palin's name to have been more publicly floated before her selection so that issues like the trooper investigation and her daughter's pregnancy might have already been aired and not seemed so new at the time of her announcement.
"Had the story been written about the state trooper three months ago, nobody would care about it anymore," said Dan Schnur, a former McCain aide who now directs the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics at the University of Southern California. "It's a risk. No matter how great the candidate, it's a significant risk to put someone on the ticket" who hasn't been publicly scrutinized.
"They obviously felt it was worth the risk to rev up the base and potentially reach out to Clinton supporters," Mr. Schnur said.
But Howard Opinsky, another McCain veteran, said calling attention to Ms. Palin's possible candidacy during the search process would have undermined the impact of her eventual selection.
"Had her name been played out in the press for months and months, she wouldn't have been seen as so bold," Mr. Opinsky said. "You either get freshness and you have to live with what you get in your vetting or you lose the freshness."
The Beautiful Struggle: A Father, Two Sons, and an Unlikely Road to Manhood 
The thought that Troopergate might have disappeared as a story by now if it was floated months ago may be true, but it depresses me.
In many ways, this sums up what a McCain administration would look like: overreactive with no clear sense of purpose. Think about it: everything major McCain does appears in some way "reactive." While there is value in responding to circumstances, you can only sufficiently respond to them if you have some idea of what you want to do instead of just creating a series of disconnected moments. For example "We are all Georigans" is entirely reactive and in no way fits into a worldview that would encompass a selection of Palin. Additionally, McCain's "maverick" nature was mostly an example of his personal vendetta against Bush following the 2000 election. This, also, is reactive. There is no consistent vision that seems to drive McCain, and both the process of the Palin pick and the results of it reflect this.
McCain drew from the deck (http://everything2.com/index.pl?node_id=503253) and rather then getting the Moon or Star, he drew the Void.
In order to be a maverick contrarian, you have to first figure out what everyone else is doing and then decide to do the opposite. I think that is the problem with being a "reformer" -- harder to say what you are for than to say what you are against.
I think McCain decided that he was probably going to lose anyone, so he reached into the Boise State playbook by running trick plays. I think that makes Palin the Statue of Liberty.
Oooo, Splotto, I'm going to follow the direction of your thread:
On the 20-sided die of politics, McCain just rolled a "1". (I've decided I'm not going to comment on anything unless I can tie it to the AD&D rules, as I remember them.)
1)Dumb + Dumb = Dumb!
2)Dumber, and Dumbest are the product of 1.
3)McCain & Co. is like running on your behind!
McCain's campaign is and has been a study of trivia in hot pursuit of more trivia. Folks are just tired of this stuff.
Being a Maverick all the time is not a good thing. Sometime you have to be -and usually in real time decision where have to react quickly, but given the time he had and the stakes this shows pure bad judgement.
John McCain is one lazy ass. He comes from a state where he never has to fight for re-election. Besides military, he hand picks issues that are highly visible that don't represent a legislative platform philosophy.
He's shown no initiative to become knowledgeable on the economy or diplomacy. Can't be bothered to learn the Google. Can't be bothered to memorize his own campaign proposals. So when he has his VP picked for him, why think he'll take the rigorous task of vetting her?
Is it really possible they thought Palin would bring in Hillary voters? A pro-lifer no matter the circumstances? At this point, McCain has gotten so ridiculous, even MSM won't be able to prop him up.
This is where I begin to feel some confusion.
If Palin is such an awful choice, isn't that a good thing? I mean, hurray! Obama is a lock now! Hip hip!
HURRAY!
Right?
I mean, much of the complaints about Palin that I've seen reminds me of the people complaining about Bush being on Vacation all the time.
Dude. You *WANT* him in there? It's not like he vetoes stuff anyway. Every bill that passes by default is a bill that doesn't have a signing statement. He should spend *MORE* time in Texas clearing brush!
And then these friends of mine who are supporters of Single-Payer Health Care and increased Federal Scholarships to Community Colleges and god knows what look at me and say, with a straight face, that their tax dollars are paying for that vacation.
But I digress. Isn't how awful Palin is a good thing?
Basically they put making a lot of noise above insuring that they're VP didn't do them harm.
I see that the Yglesias grammar/spelling curse still haunts these corridors.
[Does a curse haunt? Stalk? Perhaps our poetic host can help.]
When you're outgunned, outmanned and on unfavorable terrain, you start employing tactics that aren't under your control.
On uncertain ground, use subterfuge. On desperate ground, attack. -Sun Tzu
I predict the next 3 days of prime-time convention will be a concerted attack on Obama with nary a word about the actual Republican ticket.
Had her name been played out in the press for months and months, she wouldn't have been seen as so bold.
Can this be interpreted in any way other than a desire to win the news cycle trumping all other considerations? The only calculation is her short term Wowza! effect, and the chance at a good 24 hours led them to make sure they weren't appearing to vet her by not vetting her? That's, like, the lamest 20-20 hindsight excuse ever. At the end of next week there should be a lamest Palin defense contest. (Speaking of which, don't even think of appointing them as white spokespeople.)
Is it really possible they thought Palin would bring in Hillary voters? A pro-lifer no matter the circumstances?
It sounds nuts. But in light of the (now-excised) Hillary and Ferraro(?!!) tributes in her first speeches, I think that's what they were aiming for.
Presumably they have pollsters who've told them the fired-up social conservatives love the pick, and the moderate women are jumping ship.
@Sam: Page back a few days. TNC brought up grammar blog and it was roundly rejected--use e-mail if you must. And you missed it's/its, anyhow--which is where these things inevitably lead. Blogging is different from long form, edited over many days writing, and typos come with the territory.
@Jaybird: "But I digress. Isn't how awful Palin is a good thing?" Only if we can be entirely sure she won't be elected.
Great analysis Mr. Coates.
As others have said, the maverick/anti candidate stance becomes a big problem when one is asked to be a leader. If there's no real core to his policy heart, then he's left to stand alone (fiddling with his ring while looking at his VP's posterior).
Now we will really see how much genius there is in Team Rove. If they can win with this candidate, well, you can say we're all ...
I think McCain decided that he was probably going to lose anyone, so he reached into the Boise State playbook by running trick plays. I think that makes Palin the Statue of Liberty.
Nah -- with all her foreign policy experience, she's a fumblerooski.
Monstertron, I don't think it's rolling a "1." When you roll a 1 it's bad luck. This is more like going against a Level 23 Mage when you're a Level 2 bard armed with a rock. Sure, you might hit a natural 20, but what are the odds?
I nominate "the Palin pick is like going against a Level 23 Mage when you're a Level 2 bard armed with a rock" as best analogy for the Palin pick to date.
TNC -- this is good stuff.
John showed us his temperment and judgement ability. None. Hutchinson, Snow, Dole, etc. All more than capable, remarkable republican women. Instead, he picked fluff. He lost my republican woman vote.
Here's how I would describe the Palin pick:
* It slightly reduces the chance that McCain will get elected *right now*. That doesn't preclude future developments from turning the pick into a good one.
* It greatly increases the level of catastrophe that could be incurred by an elected McCain presidency.
Frankly, given everything, I'd rather a "safer" pick for McCain, even if it improves his chances of being elected...
Deleted for ranting and truly excessive caps.
Deleted again. Please don't feed the trolls.
indy4palin: Are you seriously trying to put this palin v obama experienc argument forward?
Obama has the judgment. Mccain can have all the years of "experience" in the world, but at the end of the day, he's made dumb choice after dumb choice.
He doesn't even know the timeline of what happened during the "surge," which is the only issue he can hide behind given his stupid decisions and comments for years.
Palin doesn't even know what the VP does. She's an average soccer mom, who has devient teenagers and a disable infant to deal with. Obama went and met with many foreign leaders, and showed his leadership and knowledge capabilities.
Deleted. And you will know them by their excessive use of caps lock...
This is where McCain's rep as a maverick hurts him. If he got credit for being the basically doctranaire Conservative he is (in reality the only thing he has gone against them on is campaign finance reform) he could get away with Ridge, Rice or even Lieberman. But becasue he has crafted an image as being a moderate the fact that he has a 100% pro life voting record gets him no benefit of the doubt with the base. Bush for example could pick a pro choice running mate and get away with a wink to the social conservatives. The ironic thing is that I suspect in their actual views Bush is more moderate on social issues (abortion, Gay Righs, etc) than McCain.
It's becoming more and more clear that Palin will become a liability.
BRING BACK ROMNEY !
Before it's to late !
Heidi,
Please produce a single quote from any mainstream blogger stating that Palin having a child was a mistake.
People,
It's too soon to tell whether or not this pick is a dud. After all, Palin's speech at the convention could be a success. So lets wait and see.
@Jaybird:
To simply get the GOP out of the executive office, yeah, I would say the Palin pick and W spending time clearing brush is a good thing.
Personally though, I'd prefer that both Democrats and Republicans take the process of electing officials a great deal more seriously and refrain from choosing candidates and issues simply to pander to the masses. It's not-so-subtle manipulation of the public and it demeans us as a people.
In McCain's case, picking Palin is a desperate move to appeal to disenfranchised Clinton supporters and "family values" voters who really don't understand the meaning of the phrase.
Instead, he should have looked for and picked someone who complements his shortcomings as the potential leader of our country. That would be something we could respect.
In Obama's case of not picking Clinton, I believe that demonstrates a decision to not simply patronize a potentially divisive party. Instead, it shows that he is looking for someone to help him lead us. Biden seems to fit that bill.
Bottom line message to all politicians, stop slinging mud and stop treating the American people like morons. Respect one another as potential leaders and earnestly strive to cooperate to advance the quality of life for the people who elected you.
The sad fact is that it IS a mistake for 17 year olds to have babies these day's. Unless they have rich well connected parents the current economy will drag them down. Health care professionals say that many of the girls that this happens to (in an age of easy birth control) are looking for attention.
mccain is passive-aggressive, self-destructive; the puma thing was a republican mole op that sucked in a few people who lost their temper and then realized they were being used; the alaskan secessionist group is the real palin problem; mccain will be a krispy kritter by early october as he'll blow his top for listening to the wingdings on palin and do something very bizarre. a well-known senator who knows mccain well once told me that mccain 'scared him.' he's far more dangerous than bush, which is very difficult for me imagine.
adin
Her speech at the convention isn't going to make the fact that she doesn't have the requisite experience materialize. Her speech isn't going to make her ready on Day One to be President. Her speech isn't going to take away the fact that she wants to abolish a woman's right to choose. Her speech isn't going to take away the fact that she was/is a member of a group (AIP) that is seriously unpatriotic. Her speech isn't going to take away the fact that she's lying to the American people already.
I'm sorry but there is the possibility that Sara Palin is going to be the next VPOTUS and that scares the hell out of me and makes me angry as hell.
Be well, CF
I think Ta-Nehisi is giving too much credit to Obama for the pick of Biden. Is it really clear that his pick was not reactive? That is, is it clear that Obama was not reacting to McCain's attacks that he lacks experience and knowledge of /judgement regarding foreign affairs?
Both VP picks seem reactive to me.
No one has noticed the truly important issue here. Governor Palin has an enormous flag lapel pin. Where's Senator McCain's?
>> end sarcasm