I'm going to go out on a limb here and do something I try really hard to never do, make a prediction. Sarah Palin is the nail in the McCain campaign's coffin. No Vice-Presidential nominee--not Vice-President--can be this much drama. Constantly defending old girl's record, having to expend resources to shut down investigations in Alaska, and having to actively shield her from reporters has to exact a price. At the very least it knocks Joe Biden's gaffes right off the radar.
We talked some a few weeks back about the problems of running a media-centered strategy. I believed then, and believe now, that McCain's "win the news-cycle" strategy is playing with fire in a house of straw. I know there is a school of thought that prizes "drama," "heat," and "sizzle" as assets for organizations trying to compete. Those people should be fired and banished to soup kitchens. Invariably they work in media ("journalists." clucking heads, PR people etc.) and thus their ideology is self-serving. Palinpalooza is case in point. For weeks we heard this ridiculous line of argument that Palin brought the same "excitement" and "energy" to the table as Obama, thus equalizing the race. That is exactly the sort of fatal underestimation that is going to get John McCain murked in November.
Obama isn't Obama because he is more "exciting" or had me more "heat" or "energy." He's Obama because his handlers had a deft understanding of caucus rules, because they understood the promise of the Dean/Trippi internet strategy, because they understood the ground game. Fuck all the rhetorical flourishes, all the talk of "exotic" lineage, all Ivy League pedigree, all the hoary meditation on the impact of a black president. It's all bullshit. If Obama doesn't hang eleven straight on Team Clinton in February then we'd all be talking about the dream of Susan B. Anthony. If Hillary Clinton's people understood the rules the way Obama's people did, then McCain would be running ads attacking The Restoration.
The point is that Palin brings "excitement" and "energy" but nothing else. It's all hot-sauce but no catfish. And now the jig is up. I've been pretty harsh in my criticism of the press. But some of these cats are, in the words of Bunk, good police. And even those who aren't, at least, like to look like it. McCain is basically backing these dudes into the corner and daring them to do their job. Bad idea, kid. Very. Bad. Idea.
UPDATE: Thanks for the corrections, guys.
« Millen Done | Main | A new approach to fatherhood and poverty » Sooner or later we'll all see who the prophet is24 Sep 2008 11:00 am Comments (53)
Strictly speaking I think it's "case in point." 
That Campbell Brown video you linked to is inspired, because it destroys whatever weak claim McCain had to being the champion of women once Hillary Clinton left the race. She's right--it is sexist to use Palin as a symbol and nothing else. The whole argument of feminism is not that women need to be given a place at the top--it's that they need to be treated the same as the men at the top. And we'll know we've reached equality when a woman who is as incompetent as George W. Bush is close enough to being President that the Supreme Court can make it happen.
You asked for it: "case and points" should read "case in point". "In point" is an old adjectival (dating back to the 16th century) meaning "appropriate" or "pertinent", so the phrase means "a particularly good example."
Unlike Chance Palin, Obama is not just hot sauce, there is actually meat on the bone.
permission to steal "It's all hot-sauce but no catfish."?
Best post I've read anywhere all morning.
Thanks for cheering me up too. Palinpalooza made me smile.
This piece is a perfect example of the power of your prose -- eloquent, precise, and frank. I just have to take a moment to appreciate the courage and vulnerability that give such strength to your public voice. Thank you.
Palin is the embodiment of Republicanism as it exists today, theocratic, secretive and anti-intellectual. McCain was a pick away from that mould but he lacked support from the base, Palin fixed that. However she will drive away moderates and independents. This was obvious from her convention speech.
More Bunk words please.
Somebody get a body bag. All hot sauce - no catfish!! Fiyaaaaaaaaaaah. If you're a politician, even when they diss you, the press is your friend. If you're running a campaign, they're the last people you should be trying to check, because they can make you look however they want you to look. Even though Obama has taken his shots, he understands this.
"murked" more than makes up for "case and points." T-NC: a 'case on point!
Those people should be fired and banished to soup kitchens. Hey man, soup kitchens deserve better than these numbnuts
As much as I'm on record for despising Palin, I beg to differ. Ironically, Palin helped McCain. Those people that are for Palin are for her no matter what. Everyone else realizes that, sorry but its oddly appropriate, "You can put lipstick (Palin) on a pig (McCain), but its still a pig." I've concluded that McCain is just not smart enough to be president. Even if you take Palin out of the equation, his campaign makes no sense. He has completely stepped on every message his campaign developed: 'experience to lead', 'country first', 'message dujour'. He's all over the place on the economy. He has no credibility with the change message. He's selling status quo as change in a change election and people have caught on to that. Everyone including his own supporters are often left scratching their heads: 'What is he thinking?'. That's not leadership. That's confusion!
I think you're selling both Sen. Obama and Gov. Palin short, Ta-Nehisi. Barack Obama's speeches ("rhetoric" and all) give a coherent message and inspire vast legions of surprisingly dedicated believers. And Sarah Palin's do as well. The overwhelming response to Gov. Palin among the theocratic, born-again, end-times-believing, nutjob demographic has been ecstatic joy. This kind of thing matters tremendously, especially since the lauded ground game is so essential. Of course, Obama's speeches and policies attract far more people in the key electoral states than Palin's do (and Obama actually writes his own speeches, mostly, but that's beside the point here). Thankfully there a lot more people who are "fired up" by Obama (i.e., reasonable yet idealistic people) than those entranced by Palin (i.e., whack jobs). Also: Charisma, man. Charisma counts. That's the "sizzle." How can you attract followers and henchmen if you don't have a high CHA?
Great post...it has inspired me in that I feel that there are people out there who see the truth.
Ghostface quaility commentary. In the words of Cool Breeze "that's 10 points right there" and you worked a "Wire" reference and the word "Murked". Excellent.
I live in Colorado Springs... here is my take. Out of the three kinds of Republican Folk with whom I find myself acquainted (Social Conservatives, Fiscal Conservatives, and Hawkish/Defense Conservatives), the Hawks were the only ones who were semi-pleased with McCain. The SoCons hated him and the FisCons were making noises about "the wilderness". The addition of Palin has done a fairly good job of bringing both the SoCons and FisCons back into the fold. Palin has the whole special needs baby thing to appeal to the pro-lifers (fun fact: even though McCain has, like, a 99.999% pro-life voting record, a ton of people still think that he's pro-choice... this makes him appeal more to swing-voters who are pro-choice while, at the same time, makes him someone that Social Conservatives won't support. Appearance is everything!) and she has the whole "Mountain West" thing going on to appeal to Fiscons/Small Government types. Restated more susinctly: Palin helps to tie up the Mountain West states and hammers down the South with its Single Issue Values Voters. She may be a nail. I don't think that she is a coffin nail.
Palin was probably the right call at the time. Down by a couple of touchdowns, late in the fourth quarter, a "3 yards and a cloud of dust" pick like Romney or Pawlenty would have doomed the McCain campaign to a slow, walking death. It's easy to second guess Team McCain, but the likelihood was always that the Republicans would lose.
"Also: Charisma, man. Charisma counts. That's the "sizzle." How can you attract followers and henchmen if you don't have a high CHA?" Yeah, both Palin and Obama have high CHA, but Palin's Lawful Evil. Obama's Neutral Good. Alignment matters.
My father (in his 70s, former MC officer, affluent, mostly votes repub.) was firmly in the McCain camp...until the Palin nomination. Now he's voting for Obama. Bet he's not the only one. Here's my prediction: McCain will win in a busted election (losing the pop but taking the college, 2000 redux, whatever,) then die shortly after taking office, leaving Palin in charge. Her presidency will be such a joke, and the democrats will be so inept in responding to the joke that that a genuine seem will open up for a third party, or even multiple parties. (Don't laugh; a friend just announced that, after years as a repub, he's running on the Independence ticket, and he'll probably win.)
Palin's net approval rating is now negative, having slid there from positive over the past 4 weeks. Polls on the question of "Does Sarah Palin make you more likely or less likely to vote for John McCain" have also slid into negative territory. That is, as a net over the country, she is hurting McCain by making people less likely to vote for him. Maybe she's helping him raise funds, and turn out more conservative voters, but that's playing defense. Playing defense while losing, in fact.
Palin helps to tie up the Mountain West states and hammers down the South with its Single Issue Values Voters. Where do you get this idea from? Obama has NM locked up, will probably win CO, and has a fighting chance in NV. Most of the other MST states (except maybe Montana) were McCain's with or without Palin. Same with the South: VA, NC, and FL are far from locked down, and McCain was likely to win the rest of the South with or without Palin. Unfortunately, with a winner-take-all, Electoral College system, you don't get any extra points for running up the score in Idaho. For Palin to have benefited McCain, she would have had to flip a state or two. But I can't think of a single state McCain stands to win, that he would have lost had he picked someone other than Palin (in fairness, same goes for Obama-Biden, but Obama didn't pick Biden to spice up the ticket, obv.).
@Jaybird: Back in the last week of August I thought Palin would be a good mountain west pick. But to my eye they haven't run her on that at all, beyond shooting moose. She doesn't sound capable on the rare occasions she talks about energy. She was not a fiscal conservative in a way that seems at all relevant to the other 49 states, and as mayor she was the opposite--I saw the potential, but what are your fiscon friends seeing that carried the deal? She is no Schweitzer or Freudenthal. And TNC, good point about Biden's gaffes not making the radar. But I think that's the financial crisis overshadowing them--Biden talks about the financial crisis, which is the big story, and Palin doesn't talk about that or anything else lest she appear ignorant and ill-informed. Until everyone feels economically secure, or he makes a truly spectacular one, it won't break through. Of the 3 this week, the ad critique was a good move they should have let stand, the Afghan one was not a gaffe, and the clean coal one was a gaffe--but not, let's face it, anything on the trillion dollars bailout.
SGEW writes: "Barack Obama's speeches ("rhetoric" and all) give a coherent message and inspire vast legions of surprisingly dedicated believers. And Sarah Palin's do as well. The overwhelming response to Gov. Palin among the theocratic, born-again, end-times-believing, nutjob demographic has been ecstatic joy." Palin doesn't have "speeches." She has the one speech, with minor variations. And it's sort of a sucky speech, and she looks more than a little ri-fucking-diculous repeating that Bridge to Nowhere lie wherever she goes. Jaybird wrote: "I live in Colorado Springs... here is my take. Out of the three kinds of Republican Folk with whom I find myself acquainted (Social Conservatives, Fiscal Conservatives, and Hawkish/Defense Conservatives), the Hawks were the only ones who were semi-pleased with McCain. The SoCons hated him and the FisCons were making noises about "the wilderness". The addition of Palin has done a fairly good job of bringing both the SoCons and FisCons back into the fold." If you live in Colorado Springs you're surrounded by CrazyCons, and I suggest that your perspective is skewed by too much exposure to such people. Palin's lead balloon has fallen to Earth with a big thud. Three years from now John McCain will be in a nursing home and he'll cry every time he hears her name.
hope you're right.
I'm not even asking permission. I'm swiping your "It's all hot-sauce but no catfish" line. @Deborah:
Ta-Neshi I treally appreciate your dig at the Clintons. The RESTORATION. Everyone knows we live in a Republic> Don't you?
eta: I missed the FDR one. But again, that's the thing McCain used to have--talk to the press all the time, show you know stuff, and a "doh" moment will slide by. Plus, his gaffe does not at all impact what should be done now--this wasn't randomly ranting about firing somebody, anybody, as a first response. If the financial thing and the McCain/Palin cold-block of the press weren't dominating, then I think there would be a push to cover any Biden gaffes so it wouldn't seem they were piling on Palin's gaffes. (Statistically, given the number in her few interviews and non-scripted responses, I think full-Palin access would lead to a gaffe-deluge.) So long as either one of those dominates, Biden would have to unilaterally declare war on someone (Spain?) to break through. Or single-handedly solve the economic issues.
Kudos to Campbell Brown for calling out the McCain campaign on their purdah-like cloistering of Sarah Palin. I never thought much of her but she has been impressing me the past couple of weeks. At least there are a few journlists doing their jobs.
you are absolutely correct about the amazing attempt to put palin and obama on the same level.
why did you have to ruin a perfectly good post by bringing in a reference from The Wire? Now I have to spend the rest of the day thinking how much I miss the show. Thanks.
Palin's Lawful Evil. Obama's Neutral Good. Balderdash! Palin is obviously Chaotic Evil (I mean, look at her personal history fer cryin' out loud!) while Obama is Lawful Good (he follows the rules, yo). Cheney is the LE one. He doesn't get caught.
""Also: Charisma, man. Charisma counts. That's the "sizzle." How can you attract followers and henchmen if you don't have a high CHA?" Yeah, both Palin and Obama have high CHA, but Palin's Lawful Evil. Obama's Neutral Good. Alignment matters." I'm more concerned about WIS than CHA at this point. And I think McCain's folks may have rolled a 1 on their Sense Motive vs. The Press.
I think there is some truth to your statement about Obama not being Obama without the caucus strategy but you also have to say that had Obama not killed on the Jefferson-Jackson Dinner speech he wouldn't have had to worry about the February caucus strategy.
"His handlers"? Please, at least say "he and his staff". I don't want a President who is "handled", I want one who accepts advice, seeks out opposing opinions, but makes decisions.
LMJ, sure... I'm surrounded by CrazyCons. That said, I *WAS* surrounded by CrazyCons who didn't like McCain and said stuff like "maybe some time in the wilderness would help". Now I'm surrounded by CrazyCons who talk about winning the election. Perhaps this isn't indicative of anything. But maybe it is. The CrazyCons (aka "the base") is now energized in a way that it was not a mere month ago. Maybe it's because I'm in a cocoon but statements made that explain that stuff is in the bag strike me as Creative Visualization rather than dispassionate assessment of data. But, as I said, maybe it's because I'm in a cocoon.
I think everyone is giving McCain way too much credit for strategizing the Palin pick. Here's my take. Palin, all along, was a bone thrown to the fundie loons. McCain probably included her in the so-called vetting process because his folks had to tell Dobson et al that their constituents were being included, respected, etc. All along, McCain was really trying to decide among people like Lieberman, Ridge, possibly Pawlenty, and maybe Mitt. But then, at the last minute, the fundie loons flipped the script. They told the McCain folks that they controlled the Convention, and that if McCain tried to nominate a pro-choicer they'd sabotage the Convention. A floor fight. A walkout. Voting against McCain's pick. He'd be humiliated on national t.v., and be considered the worst GOP nominee in history. So McCain caved, and picked who Dobson et al wanted: Palin, their Manchurian Candidate. And once that decision was forced on them, the McCain folks figured out a rap to give the press and public -- she's a reformer! she's tough and independent! she's McCain's soul-mate! she'll help with women and independents! -- and hurriedly hid her from the press and vetted her for real, desperately trying to stay one step ahead of the media's investigations into her lies, her corruption, her incompetence and ignorance. They never wanted Palin, and, in fact, I'm pretty sure the entire Palin campaign at this point consists of putting lipstick on the pig of having been forced to pick her by a bunch of millenarian, fundamentalist, homophobic, racist, misogynistic lunatics.
"The base" consists of 30% (or thereabouts)of the voters for either party. Catering only to them doesn't really work all that well. The middle 40% gets nervous when it seems like the loons are taking too much control.
The millenarian, fundamentalist, homophobic, racist, misogynistic lunatics I work with like her, for the record.
I'm sure they do like her. The fact that they would have probably started a GOP civil war to keep Tom Ridge off the ticket and insisted on Palin is evidence of their lunacy.
Ghetto Slogan should be: "Obama 08 - Fuck The Dumb Shit." ^_^
Sarah Palin is from a small town in Alaska.
If Palin is Chaotic Evil, where does that leave McCain? Simply Chaotic? And if we are going to play with "Wasilla", I'd like to point out that it could be rewritten as La Isla W. Dubya Island seems about right as the home base of the Palinbeast to me.
Re: They told the McCain folks that they controlled the Convention, and that if McCain tried to nominate a pro-choicer they'd sabotage the Convention. There are plenty of other pro-Life GOP politicians McCain could have picked. Romney and Pawlenty both fit the bill.
Nas Is Like is a classic.
Yo, TNC - I've always been a politics fiend and I've been a fan of this blog for a minute. But after this post, I had to tell all my friends about you. "Nas Is Like" is one of my favorite hip-hop songs of all time, and I've always loved that quote. Much Love.
All hot sauce but no catfish! L O L Classic!
TNC I prefer my analogy of "McCain married a stripper"-- but I like yours-- it is certainly more PC. But feel free to use it in R rated settings If there are any wonkette posters out there-- feel free to share.
You nail Obama's core strength -- he gives a good speech, certainly, but the crucial point is that he is organized, focused, and disciplined. His staff has followed suit. Michelle Obama's snippish comment "we don't do late" was illustrative -- and for the most part, they don't. So too was Barack Obama's "I'd gladly compare my return on investment in Iowa to Mitt Romney's."
**I'm more concerned about WIS than CHA at this point. And I think McCain's folks may have rolled a 1 on their Sense Motive vs. The Press.** Frankly, if I rolled McCain as an NPC, I'd have to re-roll, because he'd just be unplayable with his current stats.
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I sure hope you're right about the press. It looks like they're doing their job, but there is still plenty of time for them to jump back on the tire swing.
And any time you can bring up a quote from The Bunk, you know it's a good post. God I miss that show.
Posted by david | September 24, 2008 11:08 AM