Michael Crowley thinks Colin Powell could tip the election. I tend to think that Powell's gravitas isn't what it was in the 90s. An endorsement would certainly help the recipient, but I wonder how much it would tip the polls. Maybe Barack has this was stashed away somewhere. One can hope.
Anyone who thinks Powell is going to put his ass on the line this time around just hasn't watched his long career of only doing the safest possible thing. Sorry, but that's the Powell Doctrine - only fight when there is no possible risk.
Hey!
Sorry this is so ridiculously off topic but I love ur name, I'v started calling my niece ta nehisi, coz it sounds so unbearably cute...what does it mean? u can totally delete this but I'd still love to know. Coptic?
I've got to reluctantly (as someone who served as a junior officer in the military while Powell was the top dog, and who WAS always a huge admirer of his) agree with morzer.
Maybe he broke the powell doctrine that one time, when he got up and supported the bush iraq theories (which, for me personally -- don't take away my liberal card anyone -- took me from "what the fuck, are these guys serious?" mode on the iraq war to a --temporary -- "oh maybe there's something to this"). Yeah, he's the only one who I "trusted" and therefore the only who I feel betrayed by.
Ain't no way he sticks his neck out again. And he should. I mean it seems obvious from his statements that he'd fall on the obama side (at least it seems obvious to me), and the crossing the aisle types are what's needed now to even keep obama IN the race.
Powell's first prominent role was helping to cover up the My Lai massacre. His last was helping to start a disastrous war on false pretenses. The latter seems to have shamed him deeply, and if he wants to make amends, endorsing Obama would be a good place to start.
Morzer good point--the Powell doctrine as applied to political life.
If Powell went all in about how his realist dreams of sensible foreign policy were trashed by Bush et al and McCain's echoing of Bush sentiments made him genuinely fear for the direction of the country and he went all in on "McCain is dangerous, Obama is a realist, we need someone with a grasp of reality in the White House" then it might make a difference. A quickie endorsement won't.
Powell is a war criminal. He was a war criminal in Vietnam when he participated in covering up American troop atrocities against Vietnamese civilians; and he is a war criminal now due to the role he played in helping the Bushies illegally invade Iraq. I hope to one day see him, Bush, Cheny and Rumsfeld and their cronies before the International Criminal Court.
I just don't see Powell making much of an impact either way. He has cashed in his credibility with much of his former admirers (myself included) by making that stupid WMD speech at the UN, and especially for standing idly by while Boy George and his thugs began the torture program. If he were to endorse McBush it would simply be more of the same bullshit.
And, it would only make the news until McCain releases his next Wille Horton ad du jour. "Lipstick on a pig" anybody?
A Powell endorsement would do nothing for Obama. Associates of the McCain campaign would not even have to insinuate that this was merely one black man endorsing another for the endorsement to be taken that way by most undecided white folks, let alone McCain backers. And if that were not the case, then McCain associates would paint Powell as disgruntled, etc, and so forth.
That Powell's luster is severely tarnished in the view of so many is another story.
But if Powell endorsed McCain, that would help McCain win a few votes, and Obama would have little to counter it.
Imagine if you will a sarcastic Palin chiding Powell for supporting race over principle; it sends chills down my spine. I sure would not bet on Powell becoming vocal at this point.
I agree with Deborah. He could shake up the noodling "independents & undecideds" with such a statement and endorsement & if he actively campaigned alongside Obama for the duration of the campaign.
For the left and right, it probably wouldn't mean a thing.
Senator Obama (and Axelrod) better have more than that in their October arsenal if they want to destroy the Rove-McCain campaign.
Do you think Dem women should forego lipstick for the next 60 days since the Rove-McCain people think they can be the only ones to use lipstick?
Would a drop in lipstick sales destroy our economy? Oh wait ...
morzer nails it.
powell would never risk ... anything.
the only marginally courageous thing he's ever done was his convention remarks on affirmative action.
other than that, i've never seen him do anything but cover his behind.
what a waste of a career.
now, if he did come out with a strong endorsement and commit to campaign for obama in places like virginia and new hampshire and colorado, i think he could swing the election to obama.
but pigs would fly - sorry about that reference - before powell would step out and do something that daring.
I've been wondering the same thing, about a Powell endorsement. Morzer up top is probably correct-Powell hasn't shown a tremendous ability to step up when it really counts. Hell, maybe he supports McCain.
But man would be sweet if Powell made a dramatic endorsement for Obama with a speech.
Count me with hurls amidst the many who thought in 2002 "If Powell is saying this, it must be true. He wouldn't lie to me." Tarnished, but I think he still has credibility.
A powerful joint Powell-Hagel endorsement might play well. But it seems an outside shot--let's work with the people we have. And if the media would keep on the "oh spare me" eyerolling at the silly vapors the Republicans claim to be having that would be nice. Also to report the straight-up bridge to nowhere lie as a lie, and not "on the one hand, on the other hand."
Powell is, IMHO, a coward and a careerist yes man. However, I think he still gets major props among the 45 and older crowd, and *would* seriously damage McCain if eh weighed in for BO.
Let's see. Republicans hate Powell because he didn't serve as an ideologue, and the Democrats pretend to hate him (they pretend to want troops home) because of his UN speech. Which makes him irrelevant.
I don't know what it is about liberals, who seem to think Colin Powell is secretly on their side. His entire political career he's acted like a total doofus, and given liberals the shaft and still they hang on, thinking he'll eventually do the right thing.
So here's a hint: if you are waiting for Colin Powell to do the right thing, prepare for a long fucking wait, because there is not *one* thing he's ever done that would lead you to believe he'll ever do the right thing.
And, btw, Michael Crowley has the insight of Trig Palin...
"Highly placed sources said a handful of top advisers signed off on how the CIA would interrogate top al Qaeda suspects -- whether they would be slapped, pushed, deprived of sleep or subjected to simulated drowning, called waterboarding.
The high-level discussions about these "enhanced interrogation techniques" were so detailed, these sources said, some of the interrogation sessions were almost choreographed -- down to the number of times CIA agents could use a specific tactic.
The advisers were members of the National Security Council's Principals Committee, a select group of senior officials who met frequently to advise President Bush on issues of national security policy.
At the time, the Principals Committee included Vice President Cheney, former National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and Secretary of State Colin Powell, as well as CIA Director George Tenet and Attorney General John Ashcroft." http://abcnews.go.com/print?id=4583256
I just don't understand why so many pundits think a Powell endorsement would be a big deal (although, arguably, playing to the pundits is always a good strategy). Powell's "brand" has been seriously damaged over the last several years, partisan Republicans have blamed him for every foreign policy disaster of the Bush Administration, and the McCain campaign would almost certainly spin any such endorsement as an act of racial solidarity rather than reflecting a sincere belief by Powell that Obama was the better candidate.
I think the big thing about a Powell endorsement wouldn't be the boost, it would be the change in the storyline in a collective OMG WTF sort of way that would curb the media obsession with everything Palin.
Nate Silver posited that having the Palin announcement the day after Obama's acceptance speech made it feel like the latter was given a month after the former, rather than just the previous night. I think a Powell endorsement would give Obama about a week in terms narrative framing.
If Powell comes to believe that he's sorry to have shilled for a disastrous war out of misplaced loyalty, then endorsing Obama will help liberals feel vindicated and maybe give Obama a little bump at the margin. But only if he really means it and can pull it off convincingly.
Personally, I already feel vindicated. My fear is that Powell will come across like another Scott McClellan: a partisan rat who's desperately fleeing the sinking ship of the Bush Adminstration to salvage his own reputation.
That would likely do more harm than good. So if Powell isn't truly passionate and utterly convincing, he should just STFU.
Tho it would be discounted as a political future because Gen. Powell is a Black man, his endorsement of Sen. Obama would still be a big plus because after all whatever u think he did with it Gen. Powell has been the National Security Advisor, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Sec. of State as well as the son of Black immigrents to the USA who became what we all hope our immigrant sons and daughters will beome. I worked with Sec. Powell and whether he formally endorses Sen. Obama or not, I'd bet money he's voting for him.
That is interesting. Smerconish seems like a careerist dick with no real principles - he's been moving left for at least the past year because he's seen the writing on the wall - but yes, the Osama-at-large issue deserves attention.
Dumbya has admitted that he doesn't care much about capturing bin Laden. Repiglicans are such obedient fools that this doesn't even bother them. But then most of the victims were New York residents, and the GOP regulars don't actually care about such people all that much.
Here's a piece no one cared about. Meh, whatever, probably the most enjoyable article I did during my stint at TIME. Premiered a month before I got laid-off. The nail in the coffin? Ya think?
Here's me going after Al. I didn't so much have a problem with him, as I had a problem with media acting like this dude was the go-to guy for everything black.
This was my first real story at time. I was writing for the Business section, a real change of direction for me. At any rate, it's about Wal-Mart's attempts to colonize the inner-city. As much as I enjoyed this piece, I mostly enjoyed going out to Chicago, which is a beautiful, beautiful city.
This a piece I did about the cops just outside our nation capitol, in Prince George's County, a few years back. I wanted to offer a counter to the dumb, conventional wisdom that if you paint your police force black, you could eradicate police brutality. In fact, Prince George's--one of the richest, blackest counties in the country--also had one of the most brutal police force's in the country.
The Beautiful Struggle: A Father, Two Sons, and an Unlikely Road to Manhood 
Anyone who thinks Powell is going to put his ass on the line this time around just hasn't watched his long career of only doing the safest possible thing. Sorry, but that's the Powell Doctrine - only fight when there is no possible risk.
Hey!
Sorry this is so ridiculously off topic but I love ur name, I'v started calling my niece ta nehisi, coz it sounds so unbearably cute...what does it mean? u can totally delete this but I'd still love to know. Coptic?
Maybe Barack has this was stashed away somewhere. One can hope.
Actually, I hope this doesn't happen. Obama ought to win this election on his own merits.
Ta-Nehisi,
I've got to reluctantly (as someone who served as a junior officer in the military while Powell was the top dog, and who WAS always a huge admirer of his) agree with morzer.
Maybe he broke the powell doctrine that one time, when he got up and supported the bush iraq theories (which, for me personally -- don't take away my liberal card anyone -- took me from "what the fuck, are these guys serious?" mode on the iraq war to a --temporary -- "oh maybe there's something to this"). Yeah, he's the only one who I "trusted" and therefore the only who I feel betrayed by.
Ain't no way he sticks his neck out again. And he should. I mean it seems obvious from his statements that he'd fall on the obama side (at least it seems obvious to me), and the crossing the aisle types are what's needed now to even keep obama IN the race.
Powell's first prominent role was helping to cover up the My Lai massacre. His last was helping to start a disastrous war on false pretenses. The latter seems to have shamed him deeply, and if he wants to make amends, endorsing Obama would be a good place to start.
Morzer good point--the Powell doctrine as applied to political life.
If Powell went all in about how his realist dreams of sensible foreign policy were trashed by Bush et al and McCain's echoing of Bush sentiments made him genuinely fear for the direction of the country and he went all in on "McCain is dangerous, Obama is a realist, we need someone with a grasp of reality in the White House" then it might make a difference. A quickie endorsement won't.
Powell is a war criminal. He was a war criminal in Vietnam when he participated in covering up American troop atrocities against Vietnamese civilians; and he is a war criminal now due to the role he played in helping the Bushies illegally invade Iraq. I hope to one day see him, Bush, Cheny and Rumsfeld and their cronies before the International Criminal Court.
Not that I think that will happen.
Powell's still busy trying to wash the blood off his hands. That's one spot that ain't gonna come out.
I just don't see Powell making much of an impact either way. He has cashed in his credibility with much of his former admirers (myself included) by making that stupid WMD speech at the UN, and especially for standing idly by while Boy George and his thugs began the torture program. If he were to endorse McBush it would simply be more of the same bullshit.
And, it would only make the news until McCain releases his next Wille Horton ad du jour. "Lipstick on a pig" anybody?
A Powell endorsement would do nothing for Obama. Associates of the McCain campaign would not even have to insinuate that this was merely one black man endorsing another for the endorsement to be taken that way by most undecided white folks, let alone McCain backers. And if that were not the case, then McCain associates would paint Powell as disgruntled, etc, and so forth.
That Powell's luster is severely tarnished in the view of so many is another story.
But if Powell endorsed McCain, that would help McCain win a few votes, and Obama would have little to counter it.
Imagine if you will a sarcastic Palin chiding Powell for supporting race over principle; it sends chills down my spine. I sure would not bet on Powell becoming vocal at this point.
I agree with Deborah. He could shake up the noodling "independents & undecideds" with such a statement and endorsement & if he actively campaigned alongside Obama for the duration of the campaign.
For the left and right, it probably wouldn't mean a thing.
Senator Obama (and Axelrod) better have more than that in their October arsenal if they want to destroy the Rove-McCain campaign.
Do you think Dem women should forego lipstick for the next 60 days since the Rove-McCain people think they can be the only ones to use lipstick?
Would a drop in lipstick sales destroy our economy? Oh wait ...
I think Ta-Nehisi means Nubia, if I remember reading that right.
As for the topic at hand - what about a Powell-Hagel joint endorsement.
morzer nails it.
powell would never risk ... anything.
the only marginally courageous thing he's ever done was his convention remarks on affirmative action.
other than that, i've never seen him do anything but cover his behind.
what a waste of a career.
now, if he did come out with a strong endorsement and commit to campaign for obama in places like virginia and new hampshire and colorado, i think he could swing the election to obama.
but pigs would fly - sorry about that reference - before powell would step out and do something that daring.
I've been wondering the same thing, about a Powell endorsement. Morzer up top is probably correct-Powell hasn't shown a tremendous ability to step up when it really counts. Hell, maybe he supports McCain.
But man would be sweet if Powell made a dramatic endorsement for Obama with a speech.
Count me with hurls amidst the many who thought in 2002 "If Powell is saying this, it must be true. He wouldn't lie to me." Tarnished, but I think he still has credibility.
A powerful joint Powell-Hagel endorsement might play well. But it seems an outside shot--let's work with the people we have. And if the media would keep on the "oh spare me" eyerolling at the silly vapors the Republicans claim to be having that would be nice. Also to report the straight-up bridge to nowhere lie as a lie, and not "on the one hand, on the other hand."
Powell is, IMHO, a coward and a careerist yes man. However, I think he still gets major props among the 45 and older crowd, and *would* seriously damage McCain if eh weighed in for BO.
Let's see. Republicans hate Powell because he didn't serve as an ideologue, and the Democrats pretend to hate him (they pretend to want troops home) because of his UN speech. Which makes him irrelevant.
I don't know what it is about liberals, who seem to think Colin Powell is secretly on their side. His entire political career he's acted like a total doofus, and given liberals the shaft and still they hang on, thinking he'll eventually do the right thing.
So here's a hint: if you are waiting for Colin Powell to do the right thing, prepare for a long fucking wait, because there is not *one* thing he's ever done that would lead you to believe he'll ever do the right thing.
And, btw, Michael Crowley has the insight of Trig Palin...
Colin POwell is a war criminal.
who wants to be endorsed by a war criminal?
"Highly placed sources said a handful of top advisers signed off on how the CIA would interrogate top al Qaeda suspects -- whether they would be slapped, pushed, deprived of sleep or subjected to simulated drowning, called waterboarding.
The high-level discussions about these "enhanced interrogation techniques" were so detailed, these sources said, some of the interrogation sessions were almost choreographed -- down to the number of times CIA agents could use a specific tactic.
The advisers were members of the National Security Council's Principals Committee, a select group of senior officials who met frequently to advise President Bush on issues of national security policy.
At the time, the Principals Committee included Vice President Cheney, former National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and Secretary of State Colin Powell, as well as CIA Director George Tenet and Attorney General John Ashcroft."
http://abcnews.go.com/print?id=4583256
I just don't understand why so many pundits think a Powell endorsement would be a big deal (although, arguably, playing to the pundits is always a good strategy). Powell's "brand" has been seriously damaged over the last several years, partisan Republicans have blamed him for every foreign policy disaster of the Bush Administration, and the McCain campaign would almost certainly spin any such endorsement as an act of racial solidarity rather than reflecting a sincere belief by Powell that Obama was the better candidate.
I personally think a well delivered endorsement would offer Obama a big boost.
If you google Ta-Nehisi Coates you will see that he is a man, originally from Baltimore. He has a son who is in elementary school.
I think the big thing about a Powell endorsement wouldn't be the boost, it would be the change in the storyline in a collective OMG WTF sort of way that would curb the media obsession with everything Palin.
Nate Silver posited that having the Palin announcement the day after Obama's acceptance speech made it feel like the latter was given a month after the former, rather than just the previous night. I think a Powell endorsement would give Obama about a week in terms narrative framing.
If Powell comes to believe that he's sorry to have shilled for a disastrous war out of misplaced loyalty, then endorsing Obama will help liberals feel vindicated and maybe give Obama a little bump at the margin. But only if he really means it and can pull it off convincingly.
Personally, I already feel vindicated. My fear is that Powell will come across like another Scott McClellan: a partisan rat who's desperately fleeing the sinking ship of the Bush Adminstration to salvage his own reputation.
That would likely do more harm than good. So if Powell isn't truly passionate and utterly convincing, he should just STFU.
Interesting question -- Powell's endorsement would likely come in much the way Kennedy's came -- as a result of a serious mis-step or gaffe.
I tend to read Powell as being loyal to the Bush clan, and particularly GHWB. His loyalties to the Republican party seem somewhat less clear.
Tho it would be discounted as a political future because Gen. Powell is a Black man, his endorsement of Sen. Obama would still be a big plus because after all whatever u think he did with it Gen. Powell has been the National Security Advisor, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Sec. of State as well as the son of Black immigrents to the USA who became what we all hope our immigrant sons and daughters will beome. I worked with Sec. Powell and whether he formally endorses Sen. Obama or not, I'd bet money he's voting for him.
Not on the scale of Colin Powell but an interesting possibility from Smerconish:
http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2008/09/11/hunting_binladen/index.html
Unless of course, Rove is having bin Laden thawed out for delivery on Halloween.
That is interesting. Smerconish seems like a careerist dick with no real principles - he's been moving left for at least the past year because he's seen the writing on the wall - but yes, the Osama-at-large issue deserves attention.
Dumbya has admitted that he doesn't care much about capturing bin Laden. Repiglicans are such obedient fools that this doesn't even bother them. But then most of the victims were New York residents, and the GOP regulars don't actually care about such people all that much.