It's really looking close. I can't see Barry doing it. That said, there would be something poetic about Obama beating McCain in Arizona 45 years after the March. I remain skeptical, though.
I wouldn't bet the new kitten on it, but I love that they're making a serious push in those states and not falling back on holding the traditional biggies. It brings in the nation-wide "we did this!" feel.
Barack will win Tucson and Pima County easily. He'll be close or maybe win Phoenix proper but lose the burbs by a margin. Anyhow, the point is we already had a city-wide MLK holiday here in Tucson when the voters in suburban Phoenix (usually the Midwest's cast-off Republican gray-hairs) rejected the statewide holiday in the early 90's. I remember Chris Rock's "niglet" sketch on SNL but he got his facts wrong about Tucson. I guess I'm really just trying to lobby for Barack to make an appearance in southern Arizona if he decides to swing through.
Obama's close enough to psyche McCain into doing an event in AZ on Monday night instead of in one of the other eight or nine states he's trying desperately to hold onto. That alone = win.
From my scientific bumper sticker poll that I conduct during rush hour- Obama is ahead 5-2 every day on average in Tucson. I'm with Big Sneezy, Obama should come visit Southern AZ, we'd give him a good sized crowd.
It also works in the long-term war, letting Arizona Democrats get up Wednesday either saying "Obama won here" or "Obama came within an inch against our own incumbent Senator." Either way, they get to go forward fired up.
(Sure wish the Obama people thought Kentucky was worth a fraction of the same attention as a long term investment....)
Yeah, I think one of the reasons to head-fake towards AZ is that McCain is going to feel a lot of heat there: If he loses the national election, he's still a senator with state credibility. But if he loses AZ, his entire political existence looks questionable. I'm sure there's a GOP comer in Arizona who wouldn't think twice about a primary challenge, and McCain probably wants to go out on his own terms.
I wanted to add a few points to this, and extend the sports metaphor to basketball.
1. The McCain campaign is trying to spin a close race through various media outlets. If the base senses that they're going to get creamed at the polls, they won't show up. That's why you get Drudge crying wolf about poll outliers and Ambinder's latest "leaks" from McCain's internal polling. Actions - like an advertising buy in your opponent's home state - speak louder than words.
2. The democrats have a disproportionate number of nervous nellies. They have the effect of sapping morale from others. All the crowing about rigged election machines and stricken voter rolls gets quieted by the confidence inherent in the advertising buy.
I want to use a basketball metaphor here; the slam dunk, frowned upon in the early years and even banned in the NCAA for over a decade. The thing is, for all the whinging about showboating through the years, the slam dunk has tactical advantages that extend beyond its high rate of success. Posterizing an opponent isn't the nicest thing to do, but it works.
Hello Mr. Coates,
First time poster, long time reader. Just wanted to commend you on your witty post title...made me want to listen to some PE. Keep up the brilliant work sir.
Simpler explanation. You put up ads in Arizona, your donors laugh at loud, you hit 'em up for money on Friday, and they send you three times what the ads cost just because they love the game. The e-mail reached me two minutes ago, and I'm going to bite.
I think it's a long shot but doable that Barry takes AZ. I live in Phoenix and there's just not a lot of enthusiasm for McCain here.
I see way more Obama bumper stickers than McCain. Also, I called the Obama HQ to see about helping out on election day and if they needed drivers to get people to the polls. The the woman laughed and said they had more than enough people doing that, but that there were still some limited shifts available for calling to GOTV on Election Day.
Here's a piece no one cared about. Meh, whatever, probably the most enjoyable article I did during my stint at TIME. Premiered a month before I got laid-off. The nail in the coffin? Ya think?
Here's me going after Al. I didn't so much have a problem with him, as I had a problem with media acting like this dude was the go-to guy for everything black.
This was my first real story at time. I was writing for the Business section, a real change of direction for me. At any rate, it's about Wal-Mart's attempts to colonize the inner-city. As much as I enjoyed this piece, I mostly enjoyed going out to Chicago, which is a beautiful, beautiful city.
This a piece I did about the cops just outside our nation capitol, in Prince George's County, a few years back. I wanted to offer a counter to the dumb, conventional wisdom that if you paint your police force black, you could eradicate police brutality. In fact, Prince George's--one of the richest, blackest counties in the country--also had one of the most brutal police force's in the country.
The Beautiful Struggle: A Father, Two Sons, and an Unlikely Road to Manhood 
I wouldn't bet the new kitten on it, but I love that they're making a serious push in those states and not falling back on holding the traditional biggies. It brings in the nation-wide "we did this!" feel.
it's basically obama saying "eff-you and the horse you came in on."
John McCain has been this electoral season's Jerry Glanville - an incompetent leader and an epic douchebag. This is Obama's Sam Wyche moment.
Barack will win Tucson and Pima County easily. He'll be close or maybe win Phoenix proper but lose the burbs by a margin. Anyhow, the point is we already had a city-wide MLK holiday here in Tucson when the voters in suburban Phoenix (usually the Midwest's cast-off Republican gray-hairs) rejected the statewide holiday in the early 90's. I remember Chris Rock's "niglet" sketch on SNL but he got his facts wrong about Tucson. I guess I'm really just trying to lobby for Barack to make an appearance in southern Arizona if he decides to swing through.
Obama's close enough to psyche McCain into doing an event in AZ on Monday night instead of in one of the other eight or nine states he's trying desperately to hold onto. That alone = win.
K,
Good point.
strategy and tactics eh. That quote will haunt McCain.
From my scientific bumper sticker poll that I conduct during rush hour- Obama is ahead 5-2 every day on average in Tucson. I'm with Big Sneezy, Obama should come visit Southern AZ, we'd give him a good sized crowd.
K's right about the psychology for this week.
It also works in the long-term war, letting Arizona Democrats get up Wednesday either saying "Obama won here" or "Obama came within an inch against our own incumbent Senator." Either way, they get to go forward fired up.
(Sure wish the Obama people thought Kentucky was worth a fraction of the same attention as a long term investment....)
Either way, maybe a close finish in Arizona will convince McCain to retire after the election. He's a dinosaur. Time to crawl off and fossilize.
Yeah, I think one of the reasons to head-fake towards AZ is that McCain is going to feel a lot of heat there: If he loses the national election, he's still a senator with state credibility. But if he loses AZ, his entire political existence looks questionable. I'm sure there's a GOP comer in Arizona who wouldn't think twice about a primary challenge, and McCain probably wants to go out on his own terms.
I wanted to add a few points to this, and extend the sports metaphor to basketball.
1. The McCain campaign is trying to spin a close race through various media outlets. If the base senses that they're going to get creamed at the polls, they won't show up. That's why you get Drudge crying wolf about poll outliers and Ambinder's latest "leaks" from McCain's internal polling. Actions - like an advertising buy in your opponent's home state - speak louder than words.
2. The democrats have a disproportionate number of nervous nellies. They have the effect of sapping morale from others. All the crowing about rigged election machines and stricken voter rolls gets quieted by the confidence inherent in the advertising buy.
I want to use a basketball metaphor here; the slam dunk, frowned upon in the early years and even banned in the NCAA for over a decade. The thing is, for all the whinging about showboating through the years, the slam dunk has tactical advantages that extend beyond its high rate of success. Posterizing an opponent isn't the nicest thing to do, but it works.
Hello Mr. Coates,
First time poster, long time reader. Just wanted to commend you on your witty post title...made me want to listen to some PE. Keep up the brilliant work sir.
Simpler explanation. You put up ads in Arizona, your donors laugh at loud, you hit 'em up for money on Friday, and they send you three times what the ads cost just because they love the game. The e-mail reached me two minutes ago, and I'm going to bite.
sporcupine, that was a brilliant move on their part (typical!), and i almost bit too... but my last precious few duckets are going to prop 8...
If Obama does take Arizona, it'll be a damned shame that William Rehnquist didn't live to see it.
I think it's a long shot but doable that Barry takes AZ. I live in Phoenix and there's just not a lot of enthusiasm for McCain here.
I see way more Obama bumper stickers than McCain. Also, I called the Obama HQ to see about helping out on election day and if they needed drivers to get people to the polls. The the woman laughed and said they had more than enough people doing that, but that there were still some limited shifts available for calling to GOTV on Election Day.
Team Obama is no joke.