For whatever reason, I've never watched the entire Joe the Plumber tape. I should have. It really says a lot about Obama as a politician. I don't think John McCain could have handled that situation. I'm almost certain Sarah Palin couldn't do it. Barack looks him in the eye, is respectful but direct, and makes his point. This is the difference between true toughness and bluster. Watch the tape--it's why Obama is winning. It doesn't matter that Joe isn't voting for Obama. Other people are watching--people hear that "Joe the Plumber" crack from McCain, but unlike in the past they can go see the tape.. That's what the McCain guys never get--there are other people watching these exchanges besides their fans.
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In a way YouTube is for public political discourse is like what happened with film studies with the arrival of VHS. Before that, the only people who had the access needed to really study film were folks who could pony up for film school. After VHS our cinematic culture became available to anyone with an inclination to school themselves.
I first saw Joe at a pro-Obama blog for exactly this reason--he comes off well.
Things the McCain camp doesn't get:
a) The YouTube
b) Class warfare isn't working
c) You should vet these people
d) Tito the Builder and Vito the Bricklayer are getting embarrassing, as though we're living in Bob the Builder World, or Fisher Price Little People Village.
As a bald guy, I, for one, welcome Joe. He's given me a ready-made Halloween costume.
That's actually the first time I've heard the "spread the wealth around" in context, and Obama's meaning is wildly different from the way it's been spun. He means literally that when more people are making more money and doing better, all businesses do better. No wonder that comment never got any traction the way the McCain campaign wanted it to.
The whole thing is 2 minutes. An eternity in terms of commercials. But I wonder if the story have had more punch whether the Obama campaign should have make one commercial with the whole exchange.
Joe looks like a skinny Michael Chiklis. Coates strikes me as a fan of The Shield, given his props for The Wire. I love the former show and believe this blog could use a thread about it.
Upon seeing the tape I thought it should have been an ad for Obama. No kidding.
And no way could McCain have handled an analogous situation. Or George Bush, Jr. Or Saint Dutch Reagan for that matter. No way, now how would those dudes' handlers let them come close to that happening.
He was clearly a plant (whether by the McCain campaign or a self-made one trying to generate a soundbite), he walked in full of bluster and nervous energy, and Obama just dissected him with facts and policy. Obama totally disarmed this guy. You can hear the nervous energy in his voice that screams "I'm going to get him with this smart-ass line of questioning".
Schmidt or JTP, whoever set this up, was just not prepared for someone to respond to his hostile manner with a calm and thorough explanation of the Obama tax policy. I suspect this was a Schmidt manuever. I say this because the set-up would have only worked if Obama responds as a McCain would, by being either dismissive or ornery. That is just not how Barack rolls.
Ali: Has anyone seen Joe and Schmidt in the same room together? Maybe Schmidt has been wearing a fat suit and pasty-face makeup all this time.
Here's the way I see it: Obama had a conversation with Joe. McCain used Joe as a gimmick.
That really tells you everything you need to know about the two candidates.
"Other people are watching"
that's the important thing. what i've learned over the years having completely unimportant arguments over the internet is that, most times, you're doing it for the crowd. it's not about convincing the other guy, it's about doing it in a fashion that leads the lurkers to say, "hey, that guy is right."
Nah, he wasn't a plant. And I think you can make an argument that now isn't the time to raise anyone's taxes, particularly, yes, the taxes of small businessmen. But there's nothing remotely socialist about raising the top rate by three points.
The thing is, no one cares about Joe the plumber. He's perceived - rightly or wrongly - as part of another stunt in a McCain campaign riddled with them.
ed-
Yeah, exactly. It's pretty hard to imagine (well, not really) the McCain strategists watching this and thinking "Bingo! We got him!"
Yes this was a plus for Obama. Joe is part of the white working class group that Obama a "problem" with. In fact, he's perfect. He's racist. Sammy Davis Jr. Puhhhleaze! He votes against his economic interest. He would get a bigger tax cut under Obama.
It gave Obama another chance, just like the Wright episode, to step up to the plate and show what real leadership is: facing reality. He looked the guy in the eye and made an honest case for his tax plan. He treated Joe like an adult. He didnt look him in the eye and lie to him. That's the really difference here.
Obama is prolly thanking McCain for this opportunity. With opponents like that who needs allies. All those people in his Joe the Plumber ads get a bigger tax cut under Obama. John here's the gun just go over there and shoot yourself in the foot for me. Thanks!
I'm a little disappointed with this race I really thought it was going to be a 2008 Patriots-Giants matchup, but actually its turning out to be a 2001 Ravens-Giants blow out.
It's amazing, the only thing they could harp on was the very last line of that excellent response. Too bad.
Nothing to do with this post, but I am really digging your schedule matching up with mine while you are in the Bay. When you are out east I feel like I am three hours behind all the time and constantly playing catch up.
I first saw this clip before the debate and this Joe guy becoming a campaign prop and I thought "THIS is why I am voting for Barack." Because he was calm, clear, convincing, and CORRECT in the face of this guy's bluster - and by the end of the clip you can see Joe's even a little bit convinced despite himself.
Who does't want such a president?
I love that clip. I watched that after the debate, and thought yeah, that should be a commercial (I think he did a better job explaining the tax policy there than in the debate itself). The thing about Obama is that even though I already have a huge amount of respect for the guy I keep getting re-impressed all over again, with his basic decency, his cogency, his relationship with Michelle (watch them talking about their status as "style icons" http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/22/the-obamas-discuss-dressi_n_137009.html). And yeah I am very impressed and pleased with his toughness, especially (hate to say it, but its true) compared to Al Gore & John Kerry.
Did you see the video of me asking McCain why he wants to tax my Cadillac health insurance? That's a trick question, because the video doesn't exist, because that would never happen, because I'd never be admitted to a McCain rally!
Even if I were, and I somehow managed to shake his hand and ask the question on video, the cameraperson and I would no doubt have the snot kicked out of us by an angry mob, if not by the Secret Service itself.
mccain used to be like obama. he was amazing @ townhalls.
I love the exchange and the way he handled Joe, but I do think there's a better way to explain the policy in general than to use the "spread the wealth around" notion.
This can be explained, really, as a matter of fairness. A lot of folks/businesses making more than 250k do not pay the 36% rate. There are many loopholes, many exceptions, that simply aren't available to folks making a lot less. People in the higher brackets end up paying a much lower effective rate.
So Obama wants to close as many loopholes as he can, but he won't be able to get them all. So we increase the rates a bit on those that have access to more of the breaks. I think if a guy like Joe could be told that in part what we're trying to do is get to the point where most people are paying the same *effective rate*, that is, if it's explained as a matter of principle/fairness, it might go over better.
At one point Biden was using this kind of language, trying to make it a matter of fairness. Maybe it wasn't getting any traction, I don't know, but I think it's something they could go back to.
"Obama had a conversation with Joe. McCain used Joe as a gimmick."
Exactly. Obama believes in his policies so he's naturally comfortable talking about the rewards and potential constraints. McCain on the other hand sold his political soul to the far right conservative wing, so he's stuck defending positions he doesn't believe in; It's better for him to change the subject.
So TNC,
Off topic, but how do you like the Bay Area? Or as Sarah Palin would call it, "Not Real America."
Have you gone to Zachary's Pizza in Berkeley yet? Best pizza in the Bay. Maybe you can go have lunch with Brad DeLong.
Is it just me...or next time Palin touts herself as having more "executive experience" than Obama, should someone point out that, um...so did Bush?
-Reymond
"There are many loopholes, many exceptions, that simply aren't available to folks making a lot less. People in the higher brackets end up paying a much lower effective rate."
Yeah, that's why they have the Alternative Minimum Tax.
You know, I watched the full-length video for the first time this evening on "Countdown." I was so taken with it that I damn near blogged about it myself. As usual, TNC articulated it much better.
Obama handled himself superbly, off-script and low-key but with nuance and kindness. It was a clutch performance - like ed said, it damn near could have been an Obama ad. Joe learned a little something, even if he and McCain and Palin don't want to admit it.
In some ways, you could argue that "Joe" approached him a little too aggressively (should we not be worried that someone, possibly a plant was able to approach him that easily?). But Barack was in no way put off by this bit of political gamesmanship. And for all his bluster, Joe really didn't have much in the way of a response. He did all his shit-talking after the fact, without the facts.
The longer version of their confrontation, for lack of a better word, even shows how Obama works up to the "spread the wealth" comment. Obama makes the important point that, under his plan, "Joe" would have been able to build the capital to buy the plumbing business through years of middle-class tax cuts and that his business would do much better if his customers have the money to pay for his services - helped, of course, by those same tax cuts.
Just a classic moment. Something that McCain or Palin couldn't even hope to duplicate, even if they scripted it.
I saw the clip before the debate and, like everyone else here, thought it showed Barack Obama at his best. Obama even said, "you might not vote for me but I'm still going to fight for you" and Joe couldn't help but be receptive.
Obama could do worse than to put a couple minutes of that exchange in his prime-time special on the 30th. Not to push back against the awesome momentum that McCain has gotten from the Joe the plumber bullet points (obviously no such momentum has materialized), but because the whole exchange encapsulates what Obama's about. Obama was on to the guy as hostile from near the get-go, but he still answered him respectfully and forthrightly.
Wait, so you were all impressed by that? Who puts off plumbing work because they're pinched? It's plumbing - if your toilet's stopped, you're going into credit card debt if need be to get that toilet fixed. Besides, it's not like the tax cut he's offering people is so big that it would dramatically increase the numbers of people willing to get their plumbing done. He's trying to make it sound like this itty-bitty tax cut is going to be a boon to Joe's business here. The real point to make is that Joe's only going to have to pay the higher rate on the income over 250, so assuming he makes 280K, which is the top of the range Joe said he might make, that's only a $900.00 tax increase. Not the end of the world for someone making 280 grand.
Big Bald Joe should shut the fuck up and angle for a gig as Mr Clean.
the guys is a pro.
Douthat, your colleague, thinks Biden's remarks (gaffe) about Obama being challenged by the bad guys after being elected should be a serious problem for Obama. Yet time and again Obama has demonstrated he isn't easily rattled and has the intellect to think on his feet.
Douthat doesn't follow up his comments about Obama with any thoughts about how Obama would meet the challenge. And he doesn't give his thoughts as to what would happen if Palin became President or how her ability to handle a challenge would compare to Obama's. And McCain-hell he'd just nuke 'em-even Colin Powell says he doesn't have the temperament to be President.
Asher, people put off all sorts of things when they don't have the money up front. Just 'cause you haven't doesn't mean it doesn't happen. Obama's tax cut may not be huge but it's larger than McCain's so that helps. It's doesn't have to be a direct boon to Joe's "business" by the way. It can indirectly help a plumber by people spending money with other businesses that in turn hire "Joe". You are thinking way too narrowly.
TNC, thanks for posting this. I hadn't taken the time to listen to the exchange either and now that I have I find it incredible that McCain & co. seized on it in the way they have, especially now since most of what JtP said was false.
I hear John McCain talking and I'm mostly bewildered. The guy's got the mindset of a Senator, reform of govt., earmarks and turf wars. His vision for where he wants to take the country is so myopic it's not even like I disagree with it, I just find it rather off topic and irrelevant, like so much of his Campaign.
12 More days...make it stop already!
Re: And I think you can make an argument that now isn't the time to raise anyone's taxes, particularly, yes, the taxes of small businessmen.
Very few small business owners make anywhere near 250K a year. Most earn a decent middle classs income - say around 60K. The business may make money at that level, but we are talking about the owner's income, not the buisness's. They are two completely different things.
As for the argument against raising taxes, in 1993 we didn't kill ourselves with a small tax inrease on a small number of our citizens, and Obama is talking about nothing larger than that. You wouldn't want a big across-the-board tax increase, but a return to the tax regime of the 90s should not be harmful since we've been there and know it's safe.
It is $250,000 in PROFIT, not $250,000 in REVENUE that will be subject to tax (actually Joe's wage plus business profit, if this is a subchapter-S corporation). There is a huge difference between the two.
People in the higher brackets end up paying a much lower effective rate.
This is just so much campus lefty anti-commerce anti-success BS.
Everyone's "effective" income tax rate is lower than their top rate.
For the life of me, I can NOT understand why the Obama Campaign has not converted this to a commerical. Yes, it's 2 minutes, but they can afford it.
McCain's campaign spends so much time trying to turn Obama's considerable strength into weaknesses. Big crowds means he's a celebrity rather than a great leader. Well thought-out and presented opinions makes him an eloquent speaker rather than an analytic politician. And now, reversing a tax cut for the wealthy, deceptively labeled temporary makes him a socialist. It's so tiring.
The right answer to the Obama's tax policy is that when looked at from an effective tax rate of all taxes, it is brings the poor closer in line with the wealthy. But the really right reason is that it's better economic stimulus.
On the economic front: plumbing is great because it can't be outsourced. But people put off optional stuff--a new bathroom, replacing that inefficient old water heater, work on new construction.
Joe is fictional because you can't find real people making $40,000 a year who, offered a chance to make $280,000, but informed that their taxes could be $900 more than if they earned that under Bush, would say "Forget it, I'll keep the job I've got now. Who wants $280,000 if the taxes on it go up?" (Do these hypothetical people take the $250,000 job, which doesn't have the increase yet? Would they take $240,000?)
To dkan's point about how weird it is that they seized on this exchange: "We reject your reality and substitute our own!" Expect to hear it a lot.
I really wish everyone would take a step back for a second on the candidates tax 'proposals' and remember that they are just that...'proposals' what makes everyone think that mccain or obama's proposals will make it out of congress?
My problem with the whole Joe the Plumber thing is not Obama's answer (it fits in with who Obama is) but with little tidbits like "I now know about Ohio plumbing law and differences between commercial licensing requirements and residential licensing requirements" and "huh, it looks like Joe has a tax lien" and "huh, hospital bills".
It's not that Obama is a bad person or Joe is a racist.
It's that it looks like if one asks a(n admittedly hostile) question of Obama, there are people out there who will do oppo research on you.
That, frankly, freaks my shit.
But, of course, hey, you have to laugh at this sort of thing, I take life too seriously, I probably am who you thought I was, etc.
It's that it looks like if one asks a(n admittedly hostile) question of Obama, there are people out there who will do oppo research on you.
No, I don't think so. If you'll recall nobody knew or cared who this guy was after he'd talked with Obama.
It was only after the third debate became the All Joe, All the Time - TV for Plumbers Channel, largely thanks to John McCain, that people started digging in to see if any of the anecdotes McCain was giving about Joe were actually true. (McCain has a little problem with anecdotes that didn't actually happen, remember.)
McCain made him famous, because McCain has no idea how to connect with lower-class voters except by appealing to their racism and saying "Joe the plumber" over and over again. What else would you expect from a guy with one house for every day of the week?
Deborah: "Joe is fictional because you can't find real people making $40,000 a year who, offered a chance to make $280,000, but informed that their taxes could be $900 more than if they earned that under Bush, would say "Forget it, I'll keep the job I've got now. Who wants $280,000 if the taxes on it go up?"
Deborah, FAIL. Joe wasn't "offered a chance" to make $280,000. He has the opportunity to BUY a business with a $280k/year revenue stream.
You seem to look at the choice like "woohoo, $280k/year, I'll keep my current job at less money."
Joe is comparing the NPV of the projected revenue stream from the business to the purchase price. If that value drops below the purchase price, he will keep his money. I don't know if $900/year puts him into that territory (1), but you can be sure he does.
Maybe he will buy the business anyway (just for independence), maybe not. But it's ridiculous to make emotional arguments that no one will be deterred from investment if the tax increases makes their marginally profitable investment into a marginally lossy one.
(1) Is Obama's tax increase indexed to inflation? If not, then it's probably more like $900/year the first year, and more each year as the price of plumbing inflates. You might not be thinking about this, but business owners are.
"It's that it looks like if one asks a(n admittedly hostile) question of Obama, there are people out there who will do oppo research on you."
1-You ambush a Presidential candidate while he's on the stump.
2-He takes 2 minutes to answer you. You are now on tape for 2 minutes
3-McCain mentions you 15 times at a national debate
4-You attract national media attention - SURPRISE!
Obama was the least actor in that chain, it's unfair to taint him as being somehow retaliatory. Consider the amount of scrutiny ANYONE associated with him recieves - arguably Obama has been the worst thing ever to happen to Bill Ayers and Jeremiah Wright. If you choose to stand in that spotlight, as Joe did, take reponsiblity for it.
I wasn't blaming Obama for the oppo done on Joe.
I wasn't blaming McCain for the oppo done on Joe.
I was saying that the fact that Joe had oppo done on him WAS WRONG.
All he did, *ALL HE DID*, was ask a question of a guy running for president. That's it.
And now I know about his financial situation.
That freaks my shit.
For those of you who think that having your shit freaked amounts to an attack on Obama, I'll ask you what you'd think if Jose' the Carpenter asked McCain a question about health care and we found out that Jose' had paperwork problems with regards to his eligibility to be employed in this country.
Would that situation freak your shit?
If not, why not?
@Asher
People need plumbers for more than emergencies -- kitchen or bath remodels?
The myth of trickle-down economics rests on the belief that the rich will somehow stop or slow their spending if taxed too greatly. The very definition of rich is not having to give a second thought to how you spend your cash, not having to prioritize spending.
Middle class folks do need to prioritize, and if they're pinched will be less likely to choose elective home repairs. I know McCain is trying to make up the difference with his multiple houses and all...
I was saying that the fact that Joe had oppo done on him WAS WRONG.
It was more wrong when they did it to that Frost kid. Joe's an adult, and he hasn't exactly tried to shrink from the scrutiny.
If you think there should be a law against the media looking into completely public information I'm curious to know how that would work, and how such a law wouldn't simply roll back efforts at public transparency. I mean, how are you going to keep the media from finding out about Joe's unlicensed businesses without making all business licenses unavailable to the public? And why would that be better?
Oh, Jesus' sainted hockey mom on a pogo stick. And that's the Obama answer that Joe then turned around and characterized as a "tap dance" in the vein of Sammy Davis Jr.? And the McCain campaign is now basing its entire closing pitch on him?
Every day there's a brand new layer of stupid in the GOP. It's beginning to look like it's stupid all the way down.
Yes, I had exactly the same reaction. McCain really doesn't like to be challenged (Des Moines Register, anyone?); Obama is secure enough to accept the fact that people are going to disagree with him, and to deal with it graciously.
"If you think there should be a law against the media looking into completely public information I'm curious to know how that would work, and how such a law wouldn't simply roll back efforts at public transparency."
I did not mention law.
I mentioned shit being freaked.
Did the hypothetical situation I gave about Jose' freak your shit at all?
Or did you think "hey, first amendment covers freedom of the press, right?"
I seem to remember the First Amendment also mentioning petitioning the government for redress of grievances... which, I would hope, would cover asking a presidential candidate a(n admittedly hostile) question without being treated punitively for it. I mean, if "freedom of speech" didn't cover that.
Instead of answering my question, though, feel free to ask me whether the law you don't know if I'm suggesting would be a civil or criminal law. You could follow up that question with asking me if I really thought that prison would be appropriate. Follow that up with asking me what kind of person I'd have to be to think prison would be appropriate.
Jaybird,
If Joe had simply asked Obama a question at a rally his 15 minutes would have long been over. The fault for all the scrutiny squarely lies on McCain. He is the one who has turned this guy into a major focus of his campaign. And lets be real Joe bears some blame too, he didn't need to start appearing on Good Mrning America, CBS News and so on, that was his choice.
Asher,
Fixing toilets and so on is a pretty small potatos thing for plumbers. The big money is for the kind of stuff that people have total discretion over. Adding that extra bathroom in the basement, remodeling the kitchen and so on, exactly the kind of stuff people stop doing when the economy is bad.
You guys keep thinking that I'm talking about "blame".
I wish that I were a better communicator.
I do too, Jaybird. If anything, your shit should be freaked that just by asking a simple question of a Presidential candidate, his opponent could turn you into the new focal point of his campaign. Your shit should not be freaked for any other reason. You are silly.
Jaybird,
I get you. I think it is freaky that you can unwittingly find yourself in the spotlight for asking a question of either candidate that isn't fawning. This is true largely because it feeds our lazy media with something out of the ordinary, so they all latch onto it.
I think that some of the defensiveness you are seeing is Obama supporters reacting to all of the right wing outrage circling out there about how people jumped on Joe because he questioned "The One". So when you state the following:
It's that it looks like if one asks a(n admittedly hostile) question of Obama, there are people out there who will do oppo research on you.
it feels like an attack. If you had dropped "Obama" and inserted "a presidential candidate", I suspect that you would have gotten a different response.
I will note that the points on this being McCain's doing are accurate. Joe probably never expected that he would be raked over the coals for asking a question. McCain had to know that a media frenzy would ensue from inserting Joe into the middle of that debate. If they didn't clear it with him first and warn him of what was coming, they did him a geave disservice.
One last point is that Joe certainly enjoyed all the media attention and adulation that came his way at first. It wasn't until they started turning up dirt that he became suddenly less enamoured of his 15 minutes of fame. The Daily Show pointed out how crazy it was pretty succinctly here.
The lesson you should take away:
Do not ask questions of your would-be leaders.
Jaybird,
You're still wrong. Put it this way, lots of people have asked Obama and McCain questions at rallys and basically Joe is the only one whose life has been gone over with a fine tooth comb. What is different? Um gee could it be that McCain was an ass hole who turned the guy into a campaign prop? Then to make it worse the guy started relishing his moment in the spotlight and went on any news show that would ask him?
Although Obama handles the question well, he asked Joe if the REVENUE would be greater than $250K. Mistake! If the revenue is $250K on a plumbing busines the PROFIT would be maybe $50K and Joe would get a big tax cut under Obama.
If PROFIT is 250K than Joe is buying a $1 million-plus operation and his bitching about taxes would have hit the wrong note.
Very few small business generate 250K of profit per owner. Hell, my business isn't so small (50 employees, mostly engineers and skilled technicians, revenues of several million) and it is a good year that I take $250K home. I'm a long way from mom & pop running a convenience store or a Subway franchise and I am on the cup in Obama's plan.
So if I am a small business owner and I make 250,001 a year I am considered "big business" and get penalized while someone who is "less successful" or not as "enterprising"...does not....Awesome.....makes perfect sense to me!!!
You people are clueless.
Yes, lisa Huff, you will get "penalized" to the tune of an increase from 36% to 39% on the $1 you make over $250K.
Somebody's clueless in this exchange, you got that right.
Hold on there, John Protevi:
I'm confused... the way I pay income taxes now is this: My earnings put me in a particular income tax bracket. All of my wages are then taxed at that rate.
Are you saying that under teleprompter jesus's plan, there will be different income tax rates on different segments of a person's income? Was not aware of that having been done before, or for that matter that being a part of captain Uh's plan.
Please provide a reference for your assertions, your statements make no sense.
Joe the unlicensed kidney etc., you are indeed confused: you're missing the difference between the marginal tax rate and the average tax rate.
Normally I'd say you should do your own research, but here's a site you can visit:
http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/MarginalTaxRates.html
"Who puts off plumbing work because they're pinched? It's plumbing - if your toilet's stopped, you're going into credit card debt if need be to get that toilet fixed."
Well, if you're my dad (not a plumber himself), you rip out the toilet and spend a week fixing it yourself, during which period you shit at the local hot dog place (with whose owners, fortunately, you are on good terms).