Correct me if I'm wrong, but is there a single shred of evidence in this story? A poll? Anything? How is this not a GOP press release? How is it not journalism as stenography?
Exactly and even worse its a pitiful attempt by the MSM to keep us all up until 1AM on Tuesday so their ad revenue party can be extended a little longer. What shite.
Well, let's see: The story uses only McCain sources and doesn't bother with fact checking or providing any sort of reality-based context. I'm guessing she rides shot-gun on the Straight Talk Express.
Here's the most recent poll that shows tightening:
The George Washington University Battleground Poll gives Obama and running mate Joe Biden 47 percent, with 46 percent for McCain and running mate Sarah Palin in "toss-up" states and 4 percent undecided.
MikeCee writes: "Exactly and even worse its a pitiful attempt by the MSM to keep us all up until 1AM on Tuesday so their ad revenue party can be extended a little longer."
1 AM? I plan to stay up until at least 4, and I'll be wearing cleats and jumping up and down on the shattered corpses of Repiglicans all over the country. I've been waiting for this for too long not to savor it.
I think some of this spin is being put out there to help buoy the spirits of their own candidate. McCain is at his best and most energetic when he's lettin' rip in a good scrap. If his people can convince him that he's still in it it keeps him from phoning it in these last few days.
Of course, it's also the sort of thing that pushes nervous Obama supporters to redouble their efforts as well. Still, nothing ventured, nothing gained, yeah?
Nate Silver and company over at fivethirtyeight.com tell a very different story of the ground game. The thing that jumps out at me in this story, that rings of complete fabrication, is this claim: "'We've been able to really expand, year after year, using our technology,' DuHaime said, adding the campaign has made 24 million targeted voter contacts to date and aims to make 17 million more before Election Day." So they think that in the next 5 days, they'll increase their "targeted voter contacts" by almost 71%?? With what? Robocalls? Spam?
Considering the "toss-up" states are now Georgia, Arizona, Montana, and North Dakota, I'm pretty sure I'm fine with that result.
That's been one of the small pleasures of the campaign: the weekly "battleground polls" by whoever it is that does those. Starting out with Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, and New Mexico. Now it's Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Indiana, and Missouri. McCain can't lose a single one and he's often behind in every single one of those. At this point he literally has no plasuible map to victory. And he's campaigning in Maine and Arizona to wrap things up.
Look, in 230 years of presidential elections, 100% of white voters voted for the white guy. In the last 130 years, 100% of black voters voted for the white guy.
My highly sophisticated election models show that the white guy has a 100% chance of winning.
Hell, even NPR feels obligated to talk about "this very close race" and the tendency of undecideds (who are apparently old) to break for McCain (also old) en masse. I'm not really faulting anyone in the McCain camp for talking a good game this week; the media could stand to be less breathless in their reading of the press releases, though.
Ah, screw it. As far as I'm concerned a 12 point Obama win will be too close. I want a 17 point blowout that will end with McCain crying bloody tears as he damns the voters as "traitors who hurt him worse than the fuckin' Vietnamese ever did." I want Cindy to be found stumbling around in a narcotic haze with two Turkish sailors and her clothes on backwards. Make that four Turkish sailors. I want Todd Palin to be arrested for punching out an NPR reporter, and for a packet of black tar heroin to be found in his pocket as he's being booked. I want Sarah Palin to blame the loss on "those Satanic Jew-bastard atheist commie pricks!"
Am I asking too much? May I add that I'd also like to see Dick Cheney busted for trafficking in snuff films?
That's definitely worth wanting, but I have a feeling we'll have to settle for four points overall, Georgia going into a run-off, and Obama inviting McCain over for cucumber sandwiches and a chat about Gatsby.
Sporcupine ruins my dream: "I have a feeling we'll have to settle for four points overall, Georgia going into a run-off, and Obama inviting McCain over for cucumber sandwiches and a chat about Gatsby."
Okay, okay. But can we at least spike McCain's sandwiches with acid and Ex-Lax so he spends the night on the pot hallucinating?
The story has no evidence, but by carefully cherry-picking the polling data, and exggaerating it, the GOP can invent a "McCain surge" that just as mythical and microscopic as the "Bush boom".
McCain has come up slightly in the polls, because some of the GOP-leaning undecideds are opting for him, as was expected. He's whittled down Obama's lead in PA to just under 10 points (and if his nuclear blitz in the state hadn't had any effect, it would be truly remarkable-- but at this rate he'd need till Thanksgiving to pull even with Obama). McCain has also managed to halt his downward spiral in IN, MT, and ND, and he's staying competitive in MO, NC and FL (though OH has starting to break Obama's way this week). That's it for good news for McCain.
Bad News? Well, there's GA, AZ (!), Obama's solidified support in VA, NV and CO...
And what is with McCain out stumping with Joe the Plumber? As if selecting Palin wasn't enough of a clusterfuck, he's telling his supporters that "when" he wins, he is going to take Joe the Plumber to Washington with him. Is he shitting me? Joe the Plumber? Who now has an agent and is looking for a book deal and to cut a country western album???
Hilzoy wrote, a couple of months ago, that she wondered what McCain would feel like on the day after Election Day when he wakes up and realizes how much he has lost. And McCain seems intent on losing more day after day up until the last possible moment.
But I've never understood why any journalist talks to any of these guys during the campaign. You want to do a post-mortem analysis of the campaign once it's over and talk to the guys in the trenches who made it happen? Fine, write that story. But what is John McCain's campaign manager supposed to say at this stage? It would be irresponsible of him to NOT spin gold of the straw this campaign has become. He doesn't have a choice. So none of these interviews ever actually generate real news--they are just ways for the MSM to fill oceans of broadcast time and print space inexpensively.
As an Obama supporter, what I fear is that the Republicans have been trying to find a way to steal this election. After all, that is the Rovian technique that got Bush elected twice. Two years ago, I predicted that McCain would win the Republican Primary and people laughed at me, because he was so far down in the polls. But I said, never underestimate the Republicans to pull unforeseen punches to get their man elected. (And when McCain was "silenced" four years ago over his report of the Swift Boat Veterans and suddenly appeared on the Bush campaign I just knew that the Repubs had cut a major deal with him.)
Well, for the same reason, I fear that the Repubs are now calling is "close" because they plan to steal the election again and, God forbid it should happen, they can always say "see, you can't trust all the polls and we were predicting a win." Between malfunctioning Diebold machines, voter intimidation, maybe even graft in the offices where the votes are counted, there could be a lot of trickery going on. In the event where they can't prevent an Obama win, well, then they will scream voter fraud by the Democrats. They've already been saying that on Fox News, claiming that there may be "as many of 1,000,000 fraudulent votes." (And we know who they'd be referring to, right?) Don't let this happen. Be vigilant and don't give up. McC and his "Pal" will not concede gracefully the way Gore and Kerry did, you can be sure of that.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but is there a single shred of evidence in this story? A poll? Anything? How is this not a GOP press release? How is it not journalism as stenography?
Sounds exactly like Colin's Powell's presentation to the U.N., and the subsequent reaction in the U.S. press.
Re: But I said, never underestimate the Republicans to pull unforeseen punches to get their man elected.
How was McCain the Republican's man any more than Romney or any other primary contender this year? Recall that a good deal of the GOP base, from James Dobson to Rush Limbaugh to the Naional Review was decidedly cool to him.
And while I agree that the GOP is not above some dirty tricks (they drfinitely try their best with vote suppression), that only works in very cliose elections-- and maybe not even very well there. Case in point: the massive GOP losses in 2006, including some exquisitely close Seante races.
I got a hoot out of the scope of historical context cited by Rick Davis: "since John McCain won the primary." That was, like, less than six months ago. Am I supposed to be impressed?
DrMike said "McC and his "Pal" will not concede gracefully the way Gore and Kerry did, you can be sure of that."
Not to defend McCain and Palin, but there was nothing graceful about Gore's concession. He ripped this country apart in the name of personal ambition. Both sides are equally capable of putting country second.
And if you think the Bushies have been grooming McCain as W's successor for the last eight years, then you're very much mistaken. The plan since 2000 was for Jeb to continue the dynasty. Still is. Republican field for 2012 (so far): Palin, Huckabee, Romney -- and Jeb.
The Republicans don't have a secret deal with the God of Elections, and although Rove is an Immortal Toad, all he does nowadays is shill for a discredited news/entertainment organization viewed only by oatmeal-brained whiteys that is run by an rotting Australian.
DrJoe writes: "Not to defend McCain and Palin, but there was nothing graceful about Gore's concession. He ripped this country apart in the name of personal ambition."
Now there's a neutral observation.
"The plan since 2000 was for Jeb to continue the dynasty. Still is. Republican field for 2012 (so far): Palin, Huckabee, Romney -- and Jeb."
How about if all of you "planners" let the voters decide?
As for that roster of GOP hacks/dummies/scum you just rolled out - why not just put a cowboy hat on a 200 pound sack of cowshit and watch the base go wild over it? They've shown they'll do that over and over again.
Finally John King has to concede here is no way for MacShame to win, no way he's turning blue to red, and no way that any of his insipidly lame stories about Obama's aunt, Obama's pastor or Obama's use of the word "vindicated" will sway anybody at this point. For God's sakes, millions of people have already voted! It's too late to bring up new material when the lights are flicked off in the club and the patrons have long since exited.The campaigns having The Fat Lady is unwrapping one final bon bon before singing Goodnight Irene.
McCain's campaign staff has displayed less thoughtful or artful planning than the drunkest sorority girl at a frat house on a Saturday night. The networks keep trying to insist that it's not over but every analyst with an IQ over 90 admits that it is.
Meanwhile, Mad TV may be rivaling SNL lately. Thier unraveled Condi Rice as a secret G who rips off her wig to reveal cornrows and throwing up signs had me rolling tonight...
Here's a piece no one cared about. Meh, whatever, probably the most enjoyable article I did during my stint at TIME. Premiered a month before I got laid-off. The nail in the coffin? Ya think?
Here's me going after Al. I didn't so much have a problem with him, as I had a problem with media acting like this dude was the go-to guy for everything black.
This was my first real story at time. I was writing for the Business section, a real change of direction for me. At any rate, it's about Wal-Mart's attempts to colonize the inner-city. As much as I enjoyed this piece, I mostly enjoyed going out to Chicago, which is a beautiful, beautiful city.
This a piece I did about the cops just outside our nation capitol, in Prince George's County, a few years back. I wanted to offer a counter to the dumb, conventional wisdom that if you paint your police force black, you could eradicate police brutality. In fact, Prince George's--one of the richest, blackest counties in the country--also had one of the most brutal police force's in the country.
The Beautiful Struggle: A Father, Two Sons, and an Unlikely Road to Manhood 
Wishful Republican thinking?
Really, though, is it any less truthful than any of a number of GOP storylines and campaign ads this electoral season?
Please, let them spin the comeback out of thin air. I think it will prevent Obama supporters from getting complacent.
Exactly and even worse its a pitiful attempt by the MSM to keep us all up until 1AM on Tuesday so their ad revenue party can be extended a little longer. What shite.
Well, let's see: The story uses only McCain sources and doesn't bother with fact checking or providing any sort of reality-based context. I'm guessing she rides shot-gun on the Straight Talk Express.
pfft. I guess it sells the papers, but more to the point it keeps the Obama backers locked in.
You know the worst thing about this story? It provoked me to send Obama another fifty bucks!
Here's the most recent poll that shows tightening:
The George Washington University Battleground Poll gives Obama and running mate Joe Biden 47 percent, with 46 percent for McCain and running mate Sarah Palin in "toss-up" states and 4 percent undecided.
I can't find what states they're talking about, or the breakdown of the sample. http://www.tarrance.com/bg.cfm
RCP includes GWU in their national polling average, which is currently at +6.4 Obama.
TNC,
I stopped paying attention to the polls a few days ago when you guaranteed an Obama victory. I suggest everyone do the same.
The press covered Dennis Kucinich's UFO siting, and I think this is the same kind of story.
If you want wonderfully concrete, nondelusional data on the McCain operation, check the eyewitness accounts and magnificent photos at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/big-empty.html
Oh, give the guy a break: the election is Tuesday, his candidate is toast and it's his JOB to act like it's close.
And it's not really the media's job to dis him for it, cuz if that was okay, the press would have elected Clinton two years ago.
MikeCee writes: "Exactly and even worse its a pitiful attempt by the MSM to keep us all up until 1AM on Tuesday so their ad revenue party can be extended a little longer."
1 AM? I plan to stay up until at least 4, and I'll be wearing cleats and jumping up and down on the shattered corpses of Repiglicans all over the country. I've been waiting for this for too long not to savor it.
I think some of this spin is being put out there to help buoy the spirits of their own candidate. McCain is at his best and most energetic when he's lettin' rip in a good scrap. If his people can convince him that he's still in it it keeps him from phoning it in these last few days.
Of course, it's also the sort of thing that pushes nervous Obama supporters to redouble their efforts as well. Still, nothing ventured, nothing gained, yeah?
Nate Silver and company over at fivethirtyeight.com tell a very different story of the ground game. The thing that jumps out at me in this story, that rings of complete fabrication, is this claim: "'We've been able to really expand, year after year, using our technology,' DuHaime said, adding the campaign has made 24 million targeted voter contacts to date and aims to make 17 million more before Election Day." So they think that in the next 5 days, they'll increase their "targeted voter contacts" by almost 71%?? With what? Robocalls? Spam?
Wow! More robocalls!!! That'll do the trick! This is surely good news for John McCain!
Tessa,
Considering the "toss-up" states are now Georgia, Arizona, Montana, and North Dakota, I'm pretty sure I'm fine with that result.
That's been one of the small pleasures of the campaign: the weekly "battleground polls" by whoever it is that does those. Starting out with Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, and New Mexico. Now it's Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Indiana, and Missouri. McCain can't lose a single one and he's often behind in every single one of those. At this point he literally has no plasuible map to victory. And he's campaigning in Maine and Arizona to wrap things up.
Look, in 230 years of presidential elections, 100% of white voters voted for the white guy. In the last 130 years, 100% of black voters voted for the white guy.
My highly sophisticated election models show that the white guy has a 100% chance of winning.
Hell, even NPR feels obligated to talk about "this very close race" and the tendency of undecideds (who are apparently old) to break for McCain (also old) en masse. I'm not really faulting anyone in the McCain camp for talking a good game this week; the media could stand to be less breathless in their reading of the press releases, though.
Ah, screw it. As far as I'm concerned a 12 point Obama win will be too close. I want a 17 point blowout that will end with McCain crying bloody tears as he damns the voters as "traitors who hurt him worse than the fuckin' Vietnamese ever did." I want Cindy to be found stumbling around in a narcotic haze with two Turkish sailors and her clothes on backwards. Make that four Turkish sailors. I want Todd Palin to be arrested for punching out an NPR reporter, and for a packet of black tar heroin to be found in his pocket as he's being booked. I want Sarah Palin to blame the loss on "those Satanic Jew-bastard atheist commie pricks!"
Am I asking too much? May I add that I'd also like to see Dick Cheney busted for trafficking in snuff films?
MoeLarryAndJesus,
That's definitely worth wanting, but I have a feeling we'll have to settle for four points overall, Georgia going into a run-off, and Obama inviting McCain over for cucumber sandwiches and a chat about Gatsby.
Sporcupine ruins my dream: "I have a feeling we'll have to settle for four points overall, Georgia going into a run-off, and Obama inviting McCain over for cucumber sandwiches and a chat about Gatsby."
Okay, okay. But can we at least spike McCain's sandwiches with acid and Ex-Lax so he spends the night on the pot hallucinating?
Throw me a bone.
MoeLarryAndJesus: Longtime lurker on these blogs. I just want to say that I love you.
Anna tells me: "I just want to say that I love you."
Sometimes, Anna, a banana is just a banana.
The story has no evidence, but by carefully cherry-picking the polling data, and exggaerating it, the GOP can invent a "McCain surge" that just as mythical and microscopic as the "Bush boom".
McCain has come up slightly in the polls, because some of the GOP-leaning undecideds are opting for him, as was expected. He's whittled down Obama's lead in PA to just under 10 points (and if his nuclear blitz in the state hadn't had any effect, it would be truly remarkable-- but at this rate he'd need till Thanksgiving to pull even with Obama). McCain has also managed to halt his downward spiral in IN, MT, and ND, and he's staying competitive in MO, NC and FL (though OH has starting to break Obama's way this week). That's it for good news for McCain.
Bad News? Well, there's GA, AZ (!), Obama's solidified support in VA, NV and CO...
And what is with McCain out stumping with Joe the Plumber? As if selecting Palin wasn't enough of a clusterfuck, he's telling his supporters that "when" he wins, he is going to take Joe the Plumber to Washington with him. Is he shitting me? Joe the Plumber? Who now has an agent and is looking for a book deal and to cut a country western album???
Hilzoy wrote, a couple of months ago, that she wondered what McCain would feel like on the day after Election Day when he wakes up and realizes how much he has lost. And McCain seems intent on losing more day after day up until the last possible moment.
Amazing.
I suppose the Republicans are saying this sort of stuff to get their people out to vote so the damage they sustain in the Congress is minimized.
But I've never understood why any journalist talks to any of these guys during the campaign. You want to do a post-mortem analysis of the campaign once it's over and talk to the guys in the trenches who made it happen? Fine, write that story. But what is John McCain's campaign manager supposed to say at this stage? It would be irresponsible of him to NOT spin gold of the straw this campaign has become. He doesn't have a choice. So none of these interviews ever actually generate real news--they are just ways for the MSM to fill oceans of broadcast time and print space inexpensively.
As an Obama supporter, what I fear is that the Republicans have been trying to find a way to steal this election. After all, that is the Rovian technique that got Bush elected twice. Two years ago, I predicted that McCain would win the Republican Primary and people laughed at me, because he was so far down in the polls. But I said, never underestimate the Republicans to pull unforeseen punches to get their man elected. (And when McCain was "silenced" four years ago over his report of the Swift Boat Veterans and suddenly appeared on the Bush campaign I just knew that the Repubs had cut a major deal with him.)
Well, for the same reason, I fear that the Repubs are now calling is "close" because they plan to steal the election again and, God forbid it should happen, they can always say "see, you can't trust all the polls and we were predicting a win." Between malfunctioning Diebold machines, voter intimidation, maybe even graft in the offices where the votes are counted, there could be a lot of trickery going on. In the event where they can't prevent an Obama win, well, then they will scream voter fraud by the Democrats. They've already been saying that on Fox News, claiming that there may be "as many of 1,000,000 fraudulent votes." (And we know who they'd be referring to, right?) Don't let this happen. Be vigilant and don't give up. McC and his "Pal" will not concede gracefully the way Gore and Kerry did, you can be sure of that.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but is there a single shred of evidence in this story? A poll? Anything? How is this not a GOP press release? How is it not journalism as stenography?
Sounds exactly like Colin's Powell's presentation to the U.N., and the subsequent reaction in the U.S. press.
Re: But I said, never underestimate the Republicans to pull unforeseen punches to get their man elected.
How was McCain the Republican's man any more than Romney or any other primary contender this year? Recall that a good deal of the GOP base, from James Dobson to Rush Limbaugh to the Naional Review was decidedly cool to him.
And while I agree that the GOP is not above some dirty tricks (they drfinitely try their best with vote suppression), that only works in very cliose elections-- and maybe not even very well there. Case in point: the massive GOP losses in 2006, including some exquisitely close Seante races.
I got a hoot out of the scope of historical context cited by Rick Davis: "since John McCain won the primary." That was, like, less than six months ago. Am I supposed to be impressed?
DrMike said "McC and his "Pal" will not concede gracefully the way Gore and Kerry did, you can be sure of that."
Not to defend McCain and Palin, but there was nothing graceful about Gore's concession. He ripped this country apart in the name of personal ambition. Both sides are equally capable of putting country second.
And if you think the Bushies have been grooming McCain as W's successor for the last eight years, then you're very much mistaken. The plan since 2000 was for Jeb to continue the dynasty. Still is. Republican field for 2012 (so far): Palin, Huckabee, Romney -- and Jeb.
The Republicans don't have a secret deal with the God of Elections, and although Rove is an Immortal Toad, all he does nowadays is shill for a discredited news/entertainment organization viewed only by oatmeal-brained whiteys that is run by an rotting Australian.
DrJoe writes: "Not to defend McCain and Palin, but there was nothing graceful about Gore's concession. He ripped this country apart in the name of personal ambition."
Now there's a neutral observation.
"The plan since 2000 was for Jeb to continue the dynasty. Still is. Republican field for 2012 (so far): Palin, Huckabee, Romney -- and Jeb."
How about if all of you "planners" let the voters decide?
As for that roster of GOP hacks/dummies/scum you just rolled out - why not just put a cowboy hat on a 200 pound sack of cowshit and watch the base go wild over it? They've shown they'll do that over and over again.
Finally John King has to concede here is no way for MacShame to win, no way he's turning blue to red, and no way that any of his insipidly lame stories about Obama's aunt, Obama's pastor or Obama's use of the word "vindicated" will sway anybody at this point. For God's sakes, millions of people have already voted! It's too late to bring up new material when the lights are flicked off in the club and the patrons have long since exited.The campaigns having The Fat Lady is unwrapping one final bon bon before singing Goodnight Irene.
McCain's campaign staff has displayed less thoughtful or artful planning than the drunkest sorority girl at a frat house on a Saturday night. The networks keep trying to insist that it's not over but every analyst with an IQ over 90 admits that it is.
Meanwhile, Mad TV may be rivaling SNL lately. Thier unraveled Condi Rice as a secret G who rips off her wig to reveal cornrows and throwing up signs had me rolling tonight...