« A thug for them dead-enders thugging for me | Main | I add a mutherfucker so you ig'nant voters hear me » Obama and the "Bradley effect"12 Oct 2008 08:51 am One of the things that's shocked a lot of people is Obama, and his campaign's, unwillingness to talk about how many votes he may lose because of racism. The CW is that any talk about racism loses Obama even more votes. But there's another--arguably more important--reason not to spend much time dwelling on racism--it's a bad way to compete. No great football player sits around worrying about the refs and the crowd-noise. Here is thing--Barack has been a black man working in a white world for a long time. Anyone who has done that successfully knows that the quickest path to high blood pressure is to spend your days worrying about the whims of "white racists." If you think that white racism is a dire threat to your ambitions, then you just need to go home--right now. Time spent worrying about some fools who you can't control, is time away from improving your chosen craft. Moreover, you have to believe in the humanity of white people. You can't think they are automatons reflexively ruled by racist impulses. Barack Obama doesn't talk about racism's effect on his campaign because it's pointless, and from a competitive standpoint, it's a distraction. It would be like a boxer going into a match preoccupied with the judges. Comments (28)Comments on this entry have been closed. |
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Whereas talking about how your opponent plays the "race card" at the first opportunity and pledging that you will not let racism into the campaign is a big winner. I remember a number of bloggers who argued exactly that, back in the day when McCain was pulling even with Obama.
It might work at the margins, too, if some people are naturally inclined into buying those sorts of theories, and they don't have other problems to worry about. Unfortunately, when you have crises and genuine problems to face, that tends to sober you up and get you to think real quick.
Bring it, TNC. This is the line I tell other women all the time-- they can only be kept down by men if they allow themselves to be. Women allow themselves to be taken advantage of b/c they don't have enough faith in themselves to demand good treatment.
This is one reason why I love Michelle Obama. It is hard to imagine her allowing anyone to treat her or her girls badly. She is a strong role model for our young women. Her relationship with her husband is also a strong message for young men to understand how a real man treats women and others around him.
Totally agree, and well said. Specifically in terms of the Bradley effect, this also fits in with Obama and his campaign's attitude towards not obsessing about polls in general.
Obama and the Dem leadership know that the GOP's standard programs of voter disenfranchisement are going to be out in full force this election.
Voter roll purges, voting machine "fixes", polling place nonsense means that Obama needs to have a 10pt lead to come out 2pts ahead.
I have a Libertarian friend (really an authoritarian Republican, but he likes the Lib label) who thinks Obama has no chance because of the Bradley effect, no matter what the polls say. So has been a frequent topic of discussion around here.
I actually think the percentage of voters who cannot pull the lever for Obama for racial reasons is higher than what my friend estimates. My guess is pretty much the 27% Bush diehard number. But what he cannot see is that this group wouldn't vote for Obama for many other reasons. The Venn diagram is chock full of overlaps. The number of true Democrats who will not vote for Obama is vanishingly small and that is the number that matters most.
I agree that most uncommitted voters are low information voters, and that some percentage will not vote for Obama. But the color of Obama's skin is not exactly a surprise at this point to even the lowest information voter. Nor is his funny sounding name. I think the racial dividing line was established long ago.
What I think is clearly happening now is decisions are being made on the differences in how each side has conducted the campaign and that is a big winner for Obama. I think the ugliness we have all seen in the videos has had a very big effect.
Barack has been a black man working in a white world for a long time.
I think Barack being bi-racial gives him a unique perspective. But this is rarely mentioned by anyone. White racists see him as a black man, yes, so he's had some or most of the same experiences as other black men. But he's also had to deal with "not being black enough" and other nonsense from the black community.
The point is, Barack's unique experiences as a bi-racial man make him an almost expert on race...he knows where those arguments end up, and avoids them. He's also able to elevate the conversation of race and racism to a new place. I don't know very many people who could have given the speech on race that he did, for example.
It would be difficult for Obama to bring this subject up, if it is done without the proper nuance, it could be distorted by some as "He thinks white people are racists".
By not bringing it up, perhaps he is sending a subconcious message that states he has faith that people are better than that and he trusts them.
There really is a fine line there, to carry on with the ref analogy, sometimes working the refs helps to get a call here and there. But sometimes it goes over the top and gets you tossed from the game, or demoralizes and distracts the team because they go in thinking they can't win.
TNC, check this.
Pegler?
My gawd but these people are stupid.
Do we believe that Palin reads Pegler?
I have a hard time believing she can read at all.
Someone wrote that for her.
To me the single most amazing thing about Obama is that he has now faced the full force of both the Clinton/DLC and now entire GOP attack machines and the best both of their oppo research squads could find in his entire life was having coffee with a guy who blew up a statue 40 years ago.
Let that sink in for a second. Imagine if John Edwards (or Hilary for that matter) had won the nomination. Is this guy a straight arrow or what?
This is partly why so much of the talk radio pogrom against him is based so heavily in this notion that his entire life/career is one huge secret or masterfully crafted artifice to hide some deep dark MarxoCommieIslamoACoRNegroTerrorist secret. Its simply inconceivable that he is basically a mildly liberal politician, nothing more, nothing less. How could he be so normal? Or dare I say banal.
And should he win, this will form the basis of the opposition to him from the right, like the Clintons, he will be perceived as illegitimate from the beginning and Ayers and ACORN will be the foundation for a blizzard of Neo-Bircher, Vince Foster/Black Helicopter fantasies about his supposed perfidy.
Its almost like a President Obama would drastically expand broad swaths of executive power for dubious "national security" reasons and begin a system of illegal surveillance and torture which are not subject to review by congress or the courts. Scary...
"I think Barack being bi-racial gives him a unique perspective. But this is rarely mentioned by anyone. White racists see him as a black man, yes, so he's had some or most of the same experiences as other black men. But he's also had to deal with "not being black enough" and other nonsense from the black community."
Meh, with great respect, I'd suggest a false equivalence here. "Not being black enough" will never keep you from getting a job. It doesn't increase your likelihood of getting sent to prison on a weak drug charge either. What you're describing is an in-group dynamic that isn't particularly racial. The most obvious parallel is John Kerry being derided as "French." It's ignorant, no doubt, but it doesn't match the fury and power of white racism.
Here's another thing--you only know Barack Obama is biracial because he tells you that. This goes for black people and white people. If I took an anonymous survey--before Barack got famous--and asked people who was biracial, Barack Obama or Harold Ford, I think the smart money is on Ford.
Slightly off-topic, I really admire that he doesn't tout his biraciality as some sort of reason to vote for him, anymore than he touts being black. It's a fact of his life and it informs, because he's a smart cat--not the other way around. I've met plenty of ignorant-ass black people--biracial, and otherwise.
@DougEFresh
>By not bringing it up, perhaps he is sending a subconcious message that states he has faith that people are better than that and he trusts them.
I think this is a big point. It seems like a big part of Obama's rhetoric is optimistic stuff about how great normal Americans are. To complain about racism to the press would undermine that rhetoric by implicating any white people who didn't notice the racism. Or something like that.
It would be difficult for Obama to bring this subject up, if it is done without the proper nuance, it could be distorted by some as "He thinks white people are racists".
In fact, you can see people doing that with people who do bring the subject up. It happens all the time in blog comments.
@Ta-Nehisi
Well I failed miserably in my attempt to suppress the response I knew would come by writing "I think Barack's bi-racial background gives him a unique perspective".
I totally understand that Barack's skin color means he is going to be treated as a black man, regardless of being bi-racial. And I wasn't trying to draw an equivalance between that and the accusations of him not "being black enough." That wasn't really the right example I suppose.
I was simply trying to say that as a bi-racial man, he has contended with a wider scope of issues dealing with race and racism. This gives him, I think, a broader perspective; a unique perspective. And I think this point gets lost in a lot of peripheral discussions. But I suppose you're saying it's not relevant when the fact remains he's viewed as a black man. Point taken.
BTW...I agree with your last paragraph entirely. Hopefully my comments didn't suggest the contrary.
To me the single most amazing thing about Obama is that he has now faced the full force of both the Clinton/DLC and now entire GOP attack machines and the best both of their oppo research squads could find in his entire life was having coffee with a guy who blew up a statue 40 years ago.
Let that sink in for a second. Imagine if John Edwards (or Hilary for that matter) had won the nomination. Is this guy a straight arrow or what?
This is hilarious, but true.
Nobody Black is surprised by this. I know I'm not.
Black folks can't have the skeletons of White folks.
John McCain dumps wife number 1 and discards her in the worst way, and nothing is said about it.
If Michelle Obama was Mrs. Obama #2 , it would have been a story run round the clock on cable news, pointing out the ' character flaws' of Barack Obama.
Cindy McCain is a thief, a junkie and a man-stealing ho.
If Michelle Obama had been just ONE of these, it would have been played in an endless loop.
Barack and Michelle Obama know what the deal is...Coates is right on that. If you're successful in maneuvering in the White Professional World, and you're Black, you have a skill set that is unmatched.
Thus is the paradox...
YES, Barack Obama IS this way..
Because, being Black, he couldn't be any other way and become successful.
Very true, Rikyrah, Barack would not have gotten past the Illinois state legislature if he and Michelle had the same baggage as the McCains.
In fact, there are very few Democrats who could have McCain's character issues and make it to the presidential nomination level.
Think we'll ever hear from John Edwards again?
Palin represents her 'hood and a lot of people hate her. Is it because she's racist? No it's because they believe that she represents racist people. It is impossible for many Obama supporters to respect Palin, because it is impossible for them to respect the people Palin represents, not because they have any proof whatsoever that Palin's people are racist, but because they simply refuse to acknowledge them with any respect.
Palin and Obama are proxies for people who hate each other. But you cannot blame Palin or Obama for that.
For all Obama's talk about 'we are the world' the searing disrespect of Palin and her peeps is as ugly as it gets. And you know it.
Rikyrah,
It doesn't surprise me either, I meant it more as an ironic comment on how utterly devoid of reality this Ayers/ACORN/terrorist shit really is. If he were even 1/10th the radical or dishonest cipher they claim he is, they would something much juicier. They got nothing, and they know it.
Take this troopergate business, now in all fairness, what Palin did is hardly the worst thing you could do with government power, and probably picayune by Alaskan standards, but she definitely abused the power of her office. Imagine if a bipartisan panel just concluded that Obama, as a State Sen. used his position to influence state business for a personal reason--like a spouse's family drama--game over, it would be huge news in light of all this talk about "can we really TRUST Obama?" nonsense.
None of these double-standards are surprising in the least, it just goes a long way to show that Obama started with like 5 fouls on him, and has yet to make an unforced error or really let any of the hits fade him--to use a mixed sports metaphor. I think this fact is a testament to that skill set you mentioned.
CV? You mean CW, right? Just making sure I'm not missing any new acronyms out there.
CParis hit on the most important factors.
yes, there will be a small percentage of white folks who will lie about voting for a black candidate. and when they get in the voting booth they will just not be able to do it.
racism wins out.
but that will be a small percentage. imho. obama may lose 1-2 percentage points.
i think the racists who are not going to vote for him because of the color of his skin are already accounted for in the polls.
maybe i'm naive, but i just don't think that most folks would lie at this point. in fact, i would argue that you would have seen it in a much more pronounced way in the primaries, where there would be much more pressure on dems to NOT manifest racist behavior. nowadays, most republicans just don't care if they behave in a racist fashion - though they hate being called out on it - and i'd bet that most independants who'd be motivated by racist sentiments have already declared their true choice and have already gone over to mccain. on the other hand, being outwardly racist and manifesting racist behavior, as a democrat, is definitely uncool. and someone might very well lie about their true intentions, in order to avoid being stigmatized among their democratic peers.
that may have been what happened in new hampshire, where polls were heavily in obama's favor, and then hillary narrowly won. i don't recall seeing that type of gap - between the polls and the results - in any other contest.
what is a much more serious problem and what may actually derail him is the massive voter suppression effort that is going on and that will continue through election day.
i cannot understand why democrats do not focus on this issue and scream about it long and hard.
republicans have an historic record of voter suppression, and being silent about it, as democrats, does nothing to prevent it from happening in the future.
no, complaining about voters' racism is not a good idea and i don't think it really is that huge of an issue this election.
talking openly about voter suppression is an entirely different matter and the campaign, through its surrogates, should be discussing it each and every day.
Frankie, you are right. Turnout will be off the charts and that helps the Democrats. But voter suppression is the biggest problem they are facing. In fact, voter suppression really is the only unknown at this point. If every/almost every vote counts, Obama wins.
@Tessa
You know what? I'd say his biraciality matters because he's reflective. In other words, Barack is apt to find the meaning in their and to use it to, as you suggest, bridge the gap. I didn't mean to come down hard on that. I think maybe more important than how the white world sees you, is actually having white people in your family. Like, being raised by white grandparents has to give you a different view of things.
A lot of us have white folks in our families--but most of it is way way in the past. We never got to ask questions. Barack--and other biracial black folks--really get to be in the sort of intimate contact with whites and blacks that only family can offer.
Mr. Coates,
Not to be a jerk or anything. A CV is a resume. CW is conventional wisdom. That being said, I've really enjoyed the blog since you've shown up on Atlantic. Keep up the good work!
@Ta-Nehisi:
Well said, and what I should have said at the beginning...
that's why you're the blogger and I a mere commentor ;)
I agree that the best road for the Obamas to take is to dismiss the effects of racism, but to work your ass off to get every single vote to counteract those effects at the same time. Venus and Serena Williams win championships not just because they are excellent tennis players, but because they are so above everyone else that they can counteract the effects of unfair calls and the "invisible" discrimination that goes on behind the scenes. And yet, they are so relaxed about it...they fight like hell for it, and then they drop it and go design some clothes or go back to school, like it wasn't such a big deal to begin with. I love it.
On the other hand, the Obamas are right...it has been a couple of decades since the Bradley effect, and the world has changed, and the Democratic nomination was proof of that. Of course, it's not just dems voting in this election, so it changes the dynamic...but it's a good indicator. At the end of the day, no one knows what role race will play in this election until it actually happens, but you can look to other areas of life to guess...some analysts say 6 points is the race-effect, I say play it safe and make it 10, and I'm betting Obama is. But I think part of getting those votes is staying above the racial talk, I think it ultimately gets him more votes than if he was trying to play himself off as a victim. He can leave it to other people to discuss those issues, and basically have it both ways. I didn't understand before the importance of "looking and behaving presidential", but I'm beginning to get now how imperative it is that he not get any mud on him. When you look at him now he just SEEMS like a president.
As an AA/Hispanic female with almost 30 years spent at the highest levels of corporate and Republican organizations (including 2 pres.admins.) believe me when I tell you that worrying about the other guy's racism is a non-starter. Yes, I was usually the only Black person in the room (tho' this worried one of my bosses, Barbara Bush, who said so at the time to Ebony magazine and she didn't get that talking point from me.) but the best way to fix that was to try get other people of color hired. Astonishingly enough, this was easier to do in Republican organizations than in the big entertainment industry companies I worked for.
"I think Barack being bi-racial gives him a unique perspective. But this is rarely mentioned by anyone. White racists see him as a black man, yes, so he's had some or most of the same experiences as other black men. But he's also had to deal with "not being black enough" and other nonsense from the black community."
I'm a little late to this party, but I contend that "not being black enough" or being marginal to the black community in other ways isn't unique to biracial folks. Depending on which corner of black America you're from and what you're trying to accomplish in life, many of us have had to contend with "getting it from both sides."
@consuela:
I'm sort of regretting making that statement because it's not really supportive of my larger point.
Regardless, I think that someone who is biracial has a unique inner dialogue as they contend with issues of race, including instances when "they get it from both sides". A biracial man may process a particular experience of racism differently, and in more complex terms than others do. And I think these complexities, these unique experiences, enable someone who is biracial to shed a particularly enlightened view that can be of value to the rest of us.
Moreover, you have to believe in the humanity of white people. You can't think they are automatons reflexively ruled by racist impulses.
What has always really upset me is when people call Barack Obama anti-American. Because I really believe, more than any other candidate I can think of, his campaign has been a huge bet on the fundamental decency and intelligence of a majority of Americans.
It's a decision to be the big man and trust that a nation will see it and accept it.
And I think they have.
It was a terrible mistake for John McCain to make the choice so stark. He doesn't believe we're decent or smart. He thinks being an American is what you look like or where you grew up. It's sad and it's wrong.