I love stories like this. Here's a pretty cool piece from Politico that gives some ground level data on a few crucial counties in big swing states. The cool thing is that instead of offering this view from a million feet in the sky we get the stats on a much more micro-level. Go check it out. The writer, Alexander Burns, did work.
UPDATE: Meanwhile McCain has finally settled on a national strategy. It's Joe The Plumber. Nothing else. Just Joe the Plumber.
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this is still too close for comfort.
remember, they only want to get it close enough so they can steal it.
that is what all of this BS about acorn and voting fraud is all about.
they are laying the groundwork to steal the election.
obama and the campaign is settling into a defensive crouch far too soon and it's going to cause the race to tighten.
the best thing they've done, however is to avoid concentrating on one state, like kerry did with ohio and gore with florida.
in order to steal it now, mccain is going to have to manage to corrupt the elections in several swing states, which may be near impossible. so many states are in play and could possibly put obama over the top that it will be tough for the republicans to work their mischief.
Joe the Plumber's not the worst strategy in the world because it synthesizes the three legs of the McCain strategy nicely.
1. Barack Obama is going to raise your taxes. Even if he actually won't.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/17/22135/055/365/633244
2. Regular guys (read: white) don't trust that Sammy Davis shuffling democrat, so you shouldn't either.
3. Joe the Plumber is the victim of the great liberal media horde, which is naturally at the command of Obama the Black who commands them from his Isengard-like tower in Hyde Park.
Frankie, I love your posts. I mean that with no sarcasm, and with great respect. You represent a certain skeptical voice that I think us African-Americans have heard all our lives. I mostly disagree with you. But I think skepticism is good.
Keep in mind, folks:
Obama is not Al Gore. Obama is not John Kerry.
Dude is far sharper, especially politically, then either of 'them put together.
He doesn't appear to be in a "defensive crouch" to me; Joe the Plumber's bonafides are being questioned. The whole ACORN-is-corrupt meme is being challenged on several fronts. Whether the MSM will ask the right questions, or parrot RNC talking points remains to be seen--but Obama ain't rolling over on this one.
Regarding Joe the Plumber: His lack of licensure and union apprenticeship (which means he really ought not be layin' pipe in Ohio) is not gonna win him points with the rust-belt union crowd--many of whom may not like black people much, but like perceived "scabs" far less.
frankied's skepticism is smart and on point.
But, EngineerScotty is correct too.
It's a lot easier to cheat in one state, than 6. And, especially more difficult if you don't control the governmental voting apparatus.
read the 'from the ground' reports on fivethirtyeight.com.....Obama might lose this, but he'll never be able to say that he didn't put forth one hell of an effort.
Slightly OT, but the Chicago Tribune, which has never endorsed a Democrat in its 161-year history--that's right, the paper's been around longer than the Republican Party but has never endorsed a Democrat (a few Whigs, maybe?)--is endorsing Obama.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/chi-chicago-tribune-endorsement,0,3472892,print.story
Granted, this is Barack's (adopted) hometown rag, so this may be just a case of supporting the local guy over supporting the party you normally do, but still.
It's a big deal.
yep, t-nc,
a proud skeptic i am. no doubt.
practicing law tends to exacerbate that tendency also.
that lyric from marvin gaye's tune, "i heard it through the grapevine" runs on a loop in my brain:
"believe half of what you see,
some or none of what you hear..."
joe the plumber is classic republican nonsense.
almost nothing he says or claims to be is true.
but, for republicans, that DOES NOT MATTER!
the reality, the truth, does not matter!
what matters is the false narrative that they want to create around a fraud like joe the plumber.
the same dynamic is at play with sarah palin.
my biggest complaint about dems is that they do not hit high, hanging curveballs like that completely out of the park and destroy nonsense like that, immediately.
like with acorn. it's taken dems, what?...a week or so, to respond to the ridiculous claims about acorn and ties to obama.
at the first report about alleged voter registration fraud, they should have trotted out david iglesiua and reminded everyone, "US attorneys' scandal..." and dared anyone to talk about investigations.
what is so easy with democratic responses and comebacks is this: all they have to do is tell the truth!
they just need to do it a bit quicker!
I heard it on NPR on the way home; however, they included the factoid that Joe would not pay more taxes under Obama's plan. There's a not-bad response that they have to make up Joe the plumber (the guy who would take on a $250,000 a year job except that his taxes would be $900 above what they are under Bush, so forget it) because they can't find any real people who act that way. Or just Joe Biden's "How many plumbers do you know who make a quarter of a million dollars a year?"
TNC, regarding Frankie's pessimism, have you seen the Tim Dickinson piece in the new Rolling Stone? GOP helmed voter purging, fraud, manipulation, etc. is more than hype. It's scary as shit.
@Deborah: Brings to mind when the the Club for Growth was desperately searching for a farmer with enough assets to qualify for the 'death tax,' as they refer to it.
Unfortunately (for them), the estate tax actually works, insofar as the high floor for qualification excluded everyone other than, like, Monsanto. It was an under-the-radar spectacle that deserved more press at the time.
Do we know if Joe's children are really his? How do we know that his mother-in-law isn't pretending that a child that she had late in life wasn't "really" her daughter's and is being raised by Joe and his "wife"?
@Jaybird: Well, since our neo-Ptolemy found it fitting to place Joey at the center of the universe, both during the debate and in the ensuing ad barrage, I'll defer the fact-checking to him as well.
And of course, 'it would be irresponsible not to' is obligatory.
Time to go watch a pair of movies, folks; maybe MSNBC ought to show them back-to-back.
The first is Tim Robbins 1992 classic Bob Roberts. It predicted in many ways the rise of the Religious Right two years before the Contract on America resulted in the Dems losing Congress. While the details of the film haven't been imitated by real life (no guitar-playing right-wing-folk-singing pol has yet to emerge; Sarah Palin and her flute doesn't count) the film was spot on on one thing--a shift in the media dynamic which made certain forms of racist demagoguery politically acceptable again. Politicians still can't go out and cry "N----r"! to get elected, but there are lots of things they can say that have the same meaning, and we've heard them a lot this time around.
The second is Barry Levinson's equally damning 1997 flick Wag the Dog, which describes several pages of the Karl Rove playbook to a T. Create a fake narrative which which to frame issues. Joe the Plumber is the latest incantation of this; see also Jessica Lynch. One of the interesting aspects of the film is many thought it was about Clinton, who went into Yugoslavia while Monica-gate was going down. (Both occurred after the film was released). The book actually names Bush 41 as the President, suggesting the first Gulf War was faked; the film eliminated any references to real presidents or events.
Scotty,
Being from Illinois didn't get them to endorse Stevenson. The Tribune is as consistent a Republican paper as you can find.
E.J. Dionne on NPR just now: "There are 4 things John McCain needs to do to turn his campaign around. Unfortunately nobody knows what those things are."
Apsaras -
Isengard's in Hyde Park? I knew I moved to Chicago for a reason. Geographically, I think that puts me around Fangorn. Um, if I change the scale a bit. (Seriously, I loved that imagery.)
eric k beat me to it.
The Tribune is a Republican Paper.
Period.
Color me shocked when I clicked on the site and found that endorsement.
I just need to say something about St. Louis, from that article you linked to.
St. Louis County really should include the city, which is right inside of it, and when they say "St. Louis County" that just means the St. Louis Metropolitan Area minus the core.
And speaking of, there were 100,000 people in Downtown St. Louis listening to Obama today:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/18/12630/064/131/634471