That's why an Obama defeat would be met with resignation more than rage. No one is more tired of talking about racism than black people. The disenchantment with protest politics, the fatigue from refighting old battles over school integration and affirmative action, even the rise of politicians like Massachusetts governor Deval Patrick point to a shift in the disposition of black America. The big issues of the day aren't so much racial profiling and police brutality as the achievement gap, the incarceration rate and unemployment. The great race conversation has not only decreased in volume; for black people, it's also become much more introverted. At this moment, black America is in the grips of a kind of barbershop conservatism that is more concerned with its own progress than with the attitudes of whites.
So, yes, an Obama defeat would be greeted with a loud sucking of the teeth and a deepening of self-doubt. A loss would be hugely disappointing, and to put it crudely, it would also be more of the same. But it is also true that the biggest change has already taken place. The Obama campaign has been the anti--O.J. trial, a 24-hour ongoing drama about a black man cast not as a problem but, potentially, as the solution.
« The Weather Underground | Main | We wuz robbed » What if Barack loses?10 Oct 2008 09:24 am
I try to stay away from prognostication. But even the kid has his moments of weakness:
Comments (45)Comments on this entry have been closed. |
Today's Headlines From The Atlantic |
The Beautiful Struggle: A Father, Two Sons, and an Unlikely Road to Manhood 
Copyright © 2009 by The Atlantic Monthly Group. All rights reserved.
I don't know, once again... I don't see the point of the story. But congrats on the publication. You're a rising star, TNC.
That was a great closing line...except for the word solution. That's a stretch. I hope black people don't think one man is a solution to anything other than their hopelessness, if applicable.
What is there to not understand? He's discussing the potential ramifications of an Obama loss- a good thing to do considering the republican fearmongers' assertions that the savage blacks will riot in the streets if the Muslim terrorist doesn't win.
I agree with your assessment- even now I know a LOT of folks who don't think that the government will let Obama win. If he loses they will feel vindicated, and convinced that it's more of the same old thing. Others think more like you- whether he wins or not, what a huge step this has been for our country.
I admit it, when he won the democratic primary I cried. I NEVER thought I would see such a thing in my lifetime- and I'm young. Change. Hope. He really has done a lot to inspire those things for some of us.
If the defeat happens, I don't think I'm going into work on 11/5.
While this won't be as emotionally crippling for as many whites as it will be for blacks, but I, a 23 y/o white guy currently living in Greenpoint, Brooklyn, who's wholly invested his mind into the election, I'm going to be about 15x more destroyed than I was when Kerry lost in 2004 or Gore had it stolen in 2000. I don't think I ever donated to Kerry, and I've already given much more than I can realistically afford to the Obama campaign.
I'm trying to figure out which nearby bodegas have the cheapest shit beer to drink myself into a coma with if it really goes bad. Over the line? Maybe. But I've got more than a couple coworkers who have been trying to keep my expectations and hopes grounded in case of the worst.
Sounds good on it face, and many have such thoughts and beliefs. At the core this is nonsense. In short it rest on the notion where one is presumed to be what another thought one should be. Anyone with an ounce of sense is not interested in a black President of the USA; this is the subtext of the notions in this article.
I think you also have to consider -how- he looses. If he had lost because Iraq miraculously stabilized and the Iraqi people promised us free oil for life, or because McCain had been preaching mortgage doom for the last 2 years and had a plan to get us out that would be one thing.
As it stands though, if he looses it will (probably) be because the message "he's not one of us" is powerful enough that it needs almost no evidence at all. If he looses it will be because every black man is -always- OJ, no matter what they say or do.
I think he's going to win, by the way
clarification: the first paragraph previously was for the first poster, the following words for TNC.
Also, if Obama loses I am not going to work the next day either. I will take advantage of being surrounded by good French wine (which I will stock up on beforehand, because if Obama loses then EVERY Parisian will be asking me why Americans are so stupid and racist everywhere I go- they love him) and look into moving here permanently, instead of for the 6 months in my contract.
My mother always says: this too shall pass. Whatever happens, black folks have learned to take the loooooong view.
Still, my heart. Not the time for this talk, time for action.
Off to New Hampshire!
Maaaaaaaan I don't even know. I've been trying to downplay my hopes but as his numbers keep rising, it becomes harder to do.
I want to say I won't be crushed if it happens because I can just rationalize it as more of the same but I would be crushed, because the country will have rejected a man who brings an aura of hope and unity, in a time it's sorely needed, for a band of merciless fearmongerers.
Obama is not perfect, and like all politicians he'll have trouble keeping the promises he's making, but as a man, he to me, epitomizes what a president should be.
A president shouldn't be a cowboy, unilaterally making decisions and dismissing all who disagree. A president should be intelligent and insightful and listen to everyone from his own advisors to the American people.
A man who while willing to break out the can of whoop-ass when needed remains diplomatic and gentlemanly even while being crucified by his opponents and critics.
It would be hard for me to not look negatively at the country should he be rejected for the prospects of more pointless war and erosion of freedom.
It also depends on how he loses. If it's another one of those deals where it might be suspect (like the last two elections) I can definitely see shit going down. In that case I won't be rioting but I would definitely show love to those who did.
I don't see the point of the story
Spoken like someone who doesn't have a ten-year-old family member who hates her hair and eye color, whose classmates tell her she and the other kid of her race 'should be boyfriend and girlfriend because you're both X.' Spoken like someone who's never been pulled over for driving while black, or been told he must be good at math because he's 'one of them.' Spoken like someone who was told the state college was 'good enough,' while her classmate-- the one who came in just under her in GPA-- was told he was wasting his life if he didn't go to West Point.
Privilege: You're soaking in it.
"Spoken like someone who doesn't have a ten-year-old family member who hates her hair and eye color, whose classmates tell her she and the other kid of her race 'should be boyfriend and girlfriend because you're both X.' Spoken like someone who's never been pulled over for driving while black, or been told he must be good at math because he's 'one of them.' Spoken like someone who was told the state college was 'good enough,' while her classmate-- the one who came in just under her in GPA-- was told he was wasting his life if he didn't go to West Point.
Privilege: You're soaking in it."
Persia, that was um, wow, beautiful?
No lie, that brought a tear to my eye.
Nice article, TNC. But is it just me, or is it weird that Time didn't run a byline at the top? I didn't realize you were the author till I got to the end and read the bio.
I can't speak to what it will feel like for black people if he loses. I do know that it will devastate me. I have not given a shit about any politician since the 70's. After seeing Bobby and Martin killed and being put at personal risk by Nixon, I barely voted for years, much less participated in a campaign. It is different for me now.
I NEED for Obama to win.
Very well written article, Ta-Nehisi.
On disappointment: I've always said that real disappointment is one of the most painful human emotions to deal with. So I wonder what it does to the soul to build up defense mechanisms against disappointment, as you noted in the article. It seems to me that disappointment transformed to apathy crushes hope, which in turn destroys confidence and trust. I understand the defensive posture, as the alternative is anger, which can be just as transmorgifying. But the former seems a somber soul.
So I hope for an Obama win, I hope for the return of the hopeful soul.
I took two days off (Thursday and Friday) after Kerry lost. (I thought I could tough it out on Wed). And I didn't like Kerry that much --I really, really like Obama-- and while found the country in bad bad shape it is nothing like the state we found ourselves now.
I can't put myself in a Black man shoes but still it will be utterly depressing. And McCain/Palin is even more terrifying than Bush.
IT.WILL.NOT.HAPPEN.
That is a truly fine and moving article.
But he's going to win.
You know, Persia, that was a really mean thing to say. I just said I didn't understand the point. Whether that betrays privilege or not... I mean it's a stretch. Why? Because the only thing you know about me is my alias. I mean, gosh: you have no idea how "underprivileged" my life has been. Thanks, though. Disagree and get attacked. Really high level commentary. Really uplifting. Awesome.
I'm sorry all those things happened to you, and are happening to you. But you don't know the shit I go through... doesn't seem you care.
Rage....lots of expletive deletives shouted...ugly hateful thoughts...looking for a fight... depression....not leaving the house...for a while...acceptance...moving on with a wtf was I thinking attitude...
I highly doubt Obama is going to lose. Gallup has a series of daily tracking polls that ask about the general economy, the respondent's personal monetary worries, and they have a daily Presidential tracking poll. While Obama's movements in the Pres. poll aren't perfectly correlated with the economic ones, it is astonishingly close.
http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx
EJ Dionne also made a good point in an otherwise dreadful column today. The one who underestimates and disregards his opponent often loses. Democrats demonstrated this in 2000 and 2004. McCain is following the recipe for electorial disaster right now. Republicans earlier tried to say Obama is Carter, but right now, Obama is more like Reagan with his offer of hope and his saying that the American people can solve this problem.
To step aside from race: For Obama-Biden, running the sort of well-disciplined, vision-of-the-future campaign they have been running, to lose at the last minute to McCain-Palin and the laughable, appalling, ridiculous, no-solutions-but-lots-of-hate campaign they've been running would knock out any hope of cooperation. You wanted the presidency to go to two clowns with not the slightest clue about economics except that it's nice to have a lot of money? (McCain personally by marriage, Palin with only Saudi Arabian style economic/energy expertise.) Fix the mess on your own. We're not helping. Have a few more rallies about how everything is the fault of the evil minority party of the last few years and some darker skinned people, and see if that fixes anything. It would be an awful, bitter time.
Though I do think, for all that there's a 20% who love every "terrorist-traitor-danger to our country" outburst, the people disgusted by it are far greater in number. If anything, I think we're seeing a re-splitting of the Republicans: having adjusted to the "look, he's our candidate even if he's been annoying in the past" thing, they wonder what they'll have left after this display.
It was pointed out that for McCain's staff, a respectable 2-5 point loss was acceptable for resume building. For McCain, there's no difference between losing by 2 points and 20 points; it's in his interest to try nutty stuff to change the campaign dynamic because without it he's losing. But for Republicans concerned about the future of the party, or about congressional races, having most districts disappointed-to-appalled with McCain-Palin's campaign is not good, even if the disappointed include some red districts which may return an incumbent.
I honestly can't even imagine it, Coates. I can't. Black people know that Obama is about as perfect a Black candidate as America will ever get. If they choose that old man, and that stupid unqualified, incompetent woman from Alaska, something will be broken for me and America. It truly will.
Obama's gonna win, but it's not going to be pretty when the dead-enders get the bad news. The folks we're seeing at McCain-Palin rallies who are saying things like 'we can't believe this is happening to us' and "kill him!" should be watched very carefully. They're crazy and they're armed.
The GOP strategy has already shifted to a post-election phase: Blame the election results on dirty tricks in swing states, blame Obama for the blizzard-like, radioactive fallout of the Bush years, and ignite the flammable base to reshape the GOP into an even more disgusting, Christianist, jingoistic movement. Old-school conservatives will have to start their own party. The GOP has been hijacked.
Deborah - what you said.
I'd just add that the sense of disappointment for all Obama supporters would be especially sharp because victory has started to look inevitable in the last few weeks. I'm not sure what scenario could overturn this, but it would be a bitter, bitter pill to swallow.
Tinisoli has a good point about reforming the party.
One of the best bits of Republican analysis I've read this season was by an ordinary guy posting at the NYTimes early in the primary. A lifelong Republican, he and his friends intended to go down November 4th and vote for whoever the Democrat was, ushering their party into eight years in the wilderness, trim away the scary people whose ranting turned away women and young people, rediscover their conservative ideals, and ensure that in 2016 the Republican primary debate did not consist of a dozen old white men. I wish I'd copied and saved it, because I always think of it when people start musing on the new shape of the Republican party.
I hope that guy is right. The argument reduced to absurdity, that one must vote for McCain in order to keep a Dem legislature in check even if McCain appears hapless and disconnected, shouldn't fly. But I hope there can be a resurgence of conservitavism that appeals to people like Kmiek, rather than this awful last gasp of the neocons united with the angry culture warriors.
"Privilege: You're soaking in it."
Persia: Can you please tell us who is soaking in privilege? It's not clear from where I'm standing.
Thanks
I believe at this time that the only way Obama can lose is by election fraud and voter disenfranchisement in battleground states.
I haven't allowed myself to contemplate a McCain/Palin presidency. That would put a lot of pressure on the Democratic Congress, and they have consistently shown a lack of political courage. But their numbers will improve in 2008 and that might help, although their real problem seems to be leadership and an inability to build consensus within their own ranks.
Other than that, McCain/Palin could only mean more pain and suffering for the nation and the world. McCain would be one term, and Palin would run in 2012 but could not be elected. If McCain were to die, Palin serves out his term but still could not be elected. The Democrats would probably run Hillary in 2012 if either of those were to occur.
On a personal level, Obama losing would haunt me forever. Having grown up in the Jim Crow south, I became emotionally attached to the historical moment along with believing that he has been the best candidate of them all. His losing would be painful.
there would be a major generation gap full of resentment and bile, since young people would know their best shot at change was taken away by a bunch of blinders-wearing fogies. and the fogies would be smug, thinking they had demonstrated wisdom.
old folks vote far more avidly than do the young, a problem for obama.
TNC,
They forgot your byline, man. Shoot off an email or something. Good look, though.
I think that if he looses, I'll be depressed. And if there's malfeasance, I'll protest, as I think we all should.
But more importantly, I'll be taking a serious look at this country, my country, and what its values are. I look at the McCain/Palin message and their rallies and I could not be further opposed to the America they believe in. It's been eight long years, and with the choice we face in this election, I think we must ask ourselves whose country this is.
I'm young and on the job market. I was raised by immigrants and am not afraid of internationalism. On Nov. 5th, I'm afraid it might be time to look overseas.
More frightening than Obama's loss: What if Obama wins, and then his presidency is an abject failure? That would be much worse than a simple loss: for race, for the left, for the country as a whole. I don't even want to think of what doors that would open for the loony right in 2012.
I'm with you, Rikyrah, but it's not just that Obama is "about as perfect a Black candidate as America will ever get." In my opinion, he is about as perfect a Democrat we will likely see anytime soon. ...His vision, his campaign's discipline, his ability to inspire, the soundness of his policies, his thoughtful and reasonable tone, his judgment, hell, his physical attractiveness, his calm under pressure, his subtle toughness and measured but forceful response to attacks... People have said he's run an imperfect campaign, but I truly don't see what he could have done differently to increase his chances. This is our shot. (By 'our' I mean Democrats and liberals, as well and black people.) If Obama can't get it done, we're in serious trouble. [By no means do I mean to imply that race and that foreignness BS will not be a major contributing factor to his defeat. Just that I don’t see any white Democrats with the skills to do better next time.]
"More frightening than Obama's loss: What if Obama wins, and then his presidency is an abject failure? That would be much worse than a simple loss: for race, for the left, for the country as a whole. I don't even want to think of what doors that would open for the loony right in 2012."
That is something I've been contemplating myself.
I definitely think there's something to the idea that others have brought forth regarding the continually ramped up vitriol and hatred by McPalin and their cadre of religious terrorists.
Knowing at this point they probably can't win, their secondary goal being to create enough mistrust, fear and outright hatred within the country to make the next 4 years extremely difficult for President Obama (love the sound of that BTW) to navigate.
I don't know what kind of expectations people have of an Obama presidency, but I suspect some folks are setting the bar way too high and expect miracles from this man and I worry that they may turn on him quickly if he doesn't live up to them.
It's going to take more than 4 years to fix the problems facing the country, far more.
I think he's the right man for the job, but I don't know what kind of timetable the people of America have him on.
Beautifully written and real.
You've got a way, TNC.
Nice one.
That was a truly, beautiful essay.
I remember standing on line voting for Kerry and I was so sure. A woman in front of me said, "This is Mt. Airy, Philadelphia. This place has NOTHING to do with America. Don't be so sure that we are going to win." When Kerry lost I was shocked, but I always remembered that woman.
We don't know what will happen. We don't know if comfortable racists, who always sit it out, will vote this time. We do know if down and out bigots will suddenly remember to vote.
I do not trust the polls although they bring me comfort. We just have to turn out Obama's base, our base.
I wonder what Glenn Loury is thinking these days. It would be great to read a book on prominent black academics and their resistance to Obama.
@ Oguejiofor
I'm on the same wavelenght as you here. Yeah a lot of people said they would leave last time but for me at least this time will be very different. Bush has confirmed himself as an abject failure & McCain has confirmed all he wants to do is continue on the same course. If Obama loses it will confirm to me a sickness in this country. Not because I think Obama is the pinnacle but because McCain has basically put forth no ideas, no solutions & for a man like that to win with a slogan of country first when it's been anything but, man I just don't know. This just will not be the country I thought it was.
@ a_h_roth
I have thought about this too. I feel very confident though that there is basically no way short of sabotage that an Obama presidency will be a bad one. All you have to do is look at the way the man has conducted himself & the way he has approached every bump or mountain on the road of this campaign. He has deftly handled each one. Now of course he will be facing much large hurdles with much more at stake than losing an election but he has the right foundation for dealing with any issue that's what matters.
Wow. This captures my feelings, and I'm sure the sentiments of many others, so clearly. And there's no shortage of concern - like some of the previous commenters, I'm also worried that once he's in office, the old partisan road blocks and bureaucracy will prevent him from getting things done. (This is in addition to my concerns about his safety, his family's safety, etc.)
But I appreciate Eddy's response on this - Obama does have the right foundation, temperament, and a lot of amazing supporters. He's also done a good job of gently letting me and other black folks know that he won't allow racial politics to paralyze him. No matter what happens, it is hard not to admire that. (But he's still gonna win.)
And yeah, what's up with the missing byline? I actually didn't realize that Ta-Nehisi wrote this until the end...
This is my first visit to this blog, but just from the thoughtfulness and tone of the comments, I know I'll be back.
I've thought long and hard about this, and as proud as it would make me to see a black president when we previously assumed there would never be one in our lifetime, I agree that this election is much more a referendum on how America wants its politicians going forward.
At stake is the interest of thounsands, maybe millions of young voters who would likely lose interest if they see the politics of fear and division again win out over thoughtfulness and compassion. And maybe not only young voters. Even I feel like, although I must vote just to honor the people who fought so hard to get me that right, it might seem pointless if we can't elect a candidate who has so clearly shown he has the temperament for the job.
I'm actually far more concerned about the possibility of Obama being (God forbid) assassinated while in office than I am about him being a poor president. He and his team have taken thoughtful, measured responses to everything thrown at them so far, and Obama strikes me as a man who would know when he's in over his head and turn to someone qualified to help, rather than trying to bull his way through and snowjob the American people. I think that even when his administration makes the wrong decisions, it won't be from lack of consideration given to the alternatives. I don't think we have to worry about him rushing off to war regardless of whether there's a need for one, for instance ... you know, just to throw out a hypothetical :)
I was much more worried a month ago when the polls were 47-46 and the electoral projections a lot closer. No doubt I still expect some drastic moves by the GOP camp that's been very good at winning elections lately, if not much else, but if the states are really tilting in Obama's favor the way projections are showing, dirty tricks and a stolen state or two -- while it still matters, might not matter to the outcome.
The way I see it is this though. We have the best player on the floor (best candidate), the best team/scheme/coaching staff (registration, money to spend, ground attack) and although the other team is going to be throwing hail marys or kicking onside kicks, you have to be comfortable that the best team usually wins. Hopefully with the lead, they're able to run out the clock here.
What if Obama wins, and then his presidency is an abject failure?
Compared to what?
I truly don't believe that a 'defeat' of Barack Obama will be met with resignation.
I believe there will be major major riots, by all supporters of Obama, be they white, black, brown, yellow, purple, green.
I don't think it will come to that though, I truly believe that Obama will win by a landslide.
It's the ultra right-wing, the Palin kind, that will be the problem.
The Secret Service better double up on their coverage of Obama, I'm afraid.
Truly, honestly, I'm afraid of Obama's and his family's life. God forbid, should anything happen to him or his family, I will lay the responsibility square to McCain, Palin, and the GOP. They would've made it happen.
I'm sick over the thought that this would even come up!!!
I would freak out if Obama doesn't win. It has nothing to do with race; I'm a white male.
It would have to do with Americans being foolish enough to give Republicans a 3rd chance after royally screwing this nation over for 8 years.
Any country stupid enough to do that has much bigger problems than racism.
At this point, I can't imagine it, just based on the polls. There is no Bradley effect big enough to take him out. I'm trying to imagine a series of events that would lead to it, and all I can come up with is Bush capturing bin laden. Even that, at this point, might be left as a shrug.
Mikel's comment, though, is important, and deserves to be repeated:
Knowing at this point they probably can't win, their secondary goal being to create enough mistrust, fear and outright hatred within the country to make the next 4 years extremely difficult for President Obama (love the sound of that BTW) to navigate.
I don't know what kind of expectations people have of an Obama presidency, but I suspect some folks are setting the bar way too high and expect miracles from this man and I worry that they may turn on him quickly if he doesn't live up to them.
It's going to take more than 4 years to fix the problems facing the country, far more.
I think he's the right man for the job, but I don't know what kind of timetable the people of America have him on.
Posted by Mikel
Persia that was beautiful and donovon I Need for him to win too. I have never been emotionally invested a in a politician but this campaign has changed me. For the better.
How about we don't even worry about this until nov. 4th? The time I spent wondering about an Obama loss, is time wasted from going out and supporting Obama via phone banking, canvassing, and registering voters (well, that day has already passed here in NM).
This white man from California thinks Obama is the best candidate that the Democratic party has nominated in years. He's smart, level-headed, articulate, and more. He managed to beat the Clinton machine, when Hilary had been considered a shoe-in for the nomination. I would be devastated if Obama were to lose.
I cannot even imagine what it would be like for those of you who are African American.
To respond to Greg,
I am well aware that the next four years will be tough. I don't know how well Obama, or anyone, will do given the economic environment. I will feel much more comfortable with Obama steering the nation through these crises than someone hotheaded and unpredictable like McCain or uninformed like Palin.
My expectations for Obama are as follows:
1. A return to separation of powers and an ending to the notion that the president can do anything he wants. We can be strong on terrorism AND respect the constitution.
2. Better cooperation with Congress. Less whining and more negotiating when a bill doesn't pass.
3. Speeches that motivate me to do more for the country rather than make me turn the channel in disgust.