ESPN breaks it down. I love LaDainian, but I'm not so sure that if stopped today, he'd be in.
UPDATE: I've been pwned. LT's a lock. You guys win. He did it so damn quick.
The Beautiful Struggle: A Father, Two Sons, and an Unlikely Road to Manhood 
Copyright © 2009 by The Atlantic Monthly Group. All rights reserved.
1. I think the 2nd most rushing TD's makes it about a lock for LT.
2. Eli Manning has never been one of the top 3 QB's in the league in any given year.
3. I would love for my man Warner to get in, but I don't see it happening.
4. Ed Reed would have to fall off the earth tomorrow to not make it in.
5. Edge deserves a bit more love, I think. He was so good for so long in Indy.
I think voters realize that RB's are going to have shorter careers, and fall off a bit faster. They might not burn as long, but as long as they burned bright, they get a look...
Coates
LT's career numbers are frikkin ridiculous. No way he isn't a first ballot HOFer right now. I had forgotten how sick they were till I had to look them up the other day.
Disclaimer: I'm a charger's fan, so I love LT and hate Eli..
I don't see how Eli can't make it. Like a politician he's in the dead girl/live boy category by now.
Eli? I don't get it. Way way way too soon to say he'll be joining his brother.
Antonio Gates -- well he's good, no doubt, but like the article says, he's going to need to continue being REALLY good for quite some time.
Ed Reed is an absolute monster. Go Ravens!
LT's in, Ray Lewis is in, and Polamalu and Reed are closing fast. (Now THERE would be a pair to go in together--can you imagine Troy and Ed in matching yellow blazers, maybe with Ronnie Lott to induct them? WRs from decades past would all be suffering sudden debilitating flashbacks...)
Here's my nonsensical explanation of why LT is a lock. I'm a lifelong Chargers fan. But I hate LT because he has destroyed my fantasy season for the last 8 years (the one year I actually had a chance to pick him, I foolishly took Shaun Alexander, who immediately broke down, based on my brilliant theory that LT was due for a serious injury - he ended up having the greatest fantasy season ever just to rub it in). Anyway, if a player is consistently dominant enough in fantasy that he can make a fan of his real life team hate him, well, that's just a damn fine player. (And a pretty lousy Chargers fan.)
It's funny- it doesn't feel like like LT should be a lock just yet, but when you look at those numbers...
It's funnny-I have a harder time determining hall-worthiness with football than I do with baseball or the NBA. I don't know if it's because careers are a bit shorter or because the role of each position is so much different,or the difficulty of judging defense or what, but it seems a lot harder to judge. Anyone else feel that way?
The hating on Donovan McNabb in that piece is ridiculous. 4 NFC Championships in a row, for crying out loud--how many QBs have ever pulled that off? Only once has he had a truly top-flight receiver to throw to, and we all know how that ended, and yet he's still put up those numbers. And he's not finished yet (though his days in Philly might still be numbered). If he's not in the HOF, something is seriously fucked up.
"Eli Manning has never been one of the top 3 QB's in the league in any given year."
Yes, I know I'm quoting myself, but I'd like to amend that 3 to a 5.
I think Brian Dawkins is closer to being in that being out. I don't know why they say he is a long shot.
Kevin Mawae is in. Period
Todd Heap will have a shot
Keith Bullock will be appreciated more after he retires
Hines Ward is in
If Big Ben wins another championship he will go in too.
Coates, guy is in for sure, especially considering the HoF would consider whatever upended his career in their determination.
k1
ryanculver.blogspot.com
Tomlinson is washed up, but his 128 rushing touchdowns is second all-time, and his average of 15.75 rushing touchdowns per season is highest in history.
He has more rushing touchdowns in 8 seasons than Marcus Allen had in 16. The game has certainly changed, but that's a remarkable achievement.
Shaun Alexander, T-7th on that list, has a more questionable case.
Tomlinson's rushing yards/season averages out to ~1470 (92.6/game), for the record. That's just shy of Barry Sanders' ~1520/season average (99.8/game).
I disagree with ESPN's assertion that Gates is a longshot. Dave Casper is in the hall of fame, and Gates' accomplishments are pretty close (and his career clock is still running).
I might be biased, since I played with him in college and all but ... TNC, he's definitely a first-ballot HOF'er.
With the exception of this year, L.T. has pretty much been the premier back in the league since 2002. Think about how many flash in the pans there's been since then ... Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, Steven Jackson, Willie Parker, Rudi Johnson, Travis Henry, etc etc etc.
L.T. has just churned out the yards - at damn near a record rate - while almost always being the focal point of the other team's defense. The Chargers have never had a Pro Bowl-caliber receiver until, I suppose, Antonio Gates. Then they traded their Pro Bowl qb just as he was coming into his own. Regardless, L.T. still pounded out the yards - and caught out of the backfield, too - on a franchise that was in such bad shape recently that Eli Manning refused to be drafted there.
Not to mention, he's in second on the list of NFL all-time rushing touchdown leaders. That alone should get him in on the first ballot.
"If Big Ben wins another championship he will go in too."
You know, at first I thought that might be wrong, but Canton is kind of funny. You can get in through stats or championships, really, so that's probably right.
Oh, and SG, you can give me a bwahaha for the SEC. I have no defense.
That list is missing Darren Sproles; I knew that son of a bitch was a first-ballot Hall of Famer immediately after spending an afternoon pointlessly chasing him around every inch of the field in 6th grade.
Seriously, though, LdT is a lock.
I don't really follow football closely anymore aside from the Ravens; I didn't even know Sproles was in the league (or that he'd dominated at K-State and been in the Heisman running) until I caught the Chargers game last week. Does anyone with better football knowledge than me know who Reed is in competition with when it comes to this remark in the article: Perhaps his biggest challenge at this point is competing against the all-time greats and making his case to be the greatest free safety ever.
Tomlinson is definitely in. I think the two main considerations for HOF (at least in football) are 1) Was this player one of the dominant players at his position for a significant period of time OR 2) Did he make a major contribution to a championship/memorable team.
Tomlinson hasn't done 2) yet, but he's definitely done 1). From '02 through last year either the best or at least 2nd best back in the league, and that's a damn good streak for a RB.
Based on the logic of 1) Mawae and Reed should be locks as well.
Zach
Honestly I think its between him and Ronnie Lott. Thats just my opinion though.
I'm still trying to figure out what Eli has done to merit HOF consideration so far. Sure, he quarterbacked a team to the Super Bowl. But no one actually thinks he was the primary reason. Do they?
Have they forgotten about what the Giants' defense did to the Bucs, Cowboys, Packers and Patriots in the playoffs last season?
And until that late season run, people were actually on the verge of considering Eli something of a bust. He wasn't even being mentioned in the same breath with the league's elite.
If Eli is up, then I'm going to pitch Trent Dilfer into the mix. Maybe Mark Rypien too.
I'll throw Brad Johnson in there as well.
You know, at first I thought that might be wrong, but Canton is kind of funny. You can get in through stats or championships, really, so that's probably right.
I think the only time championships makes a difference is if your numbers are marginal. No one in a skill position is getting in simply because they were on teams that won a lot of Superbowls (although I'm sure someone will quickly post an example of just what I'm talking about within minutes of hitting post).
Lynn Swann AND John Stallworth! (and I'm a Steelers fan)
Lynn Swann
Not being completely serious, and I know it was a different time, but his career numbers are kind of shit.
Just Another Greg,
That makes me feel better. I was prepared for the wrath of a Steelers' fan!
Lynn Swann AND John Stallworth! (and I'm a Steelers fan)
Yeah, those are guys for whom the championships made a difference. Take them and put them on other teams and they're not really in HOF consideration, except as "they were good, but not great." But another guy from those teams who didn't make it--at least I think he didn't--was Rocky Bleier. The championships weren't enough to overcome his lack of numbers.
You can't really look at Swann's and Stallworth's numbers because Of the kind of offense they were in but I mean damn the Steelers won FOUR count em FOUR Superbowls with those cats. Shit you would have a hard time finding a guy who started all of those years who SHOULDN'T be in the hall of fame. Thats just my opinion.
4 NFC Championships in a row, for crying out loud--how many QBs have ever pulled that off?
I honestly had no idea this criterion was considered the gold standard for HOF-worthiness, but I guess that means Tayshaun Prince is headed to Springfield.
Oh, by no means am I saying that they SHOULDN'T be in because their numbers in isolation aren't that impressive. No no no, not at all
Rather, just responding to Incertus' inquiry above, and saying that their contributions towards championship teams are the reason they're in, deservedly so in my opinion.
Actually, Steelers fans have been clamoring for Donnie Shell (amongst others) to get in the Hall, but there's a feelings that a 70's Steeler fatigue is starting to set in amongst voters.
Steve, that's not a fair comparison. McNabb was the leader and best player on those 4 teams. Tayshaun's a nice player, but he's not the #1 reason the team was good. Plus, the Pistons didn't win 4 conference championships in a row.
Steve
Apples and Oranges. Football isn't like Basketball. Team means a LOT more.
I honestly had no idea this criterion was considered the gold standard for HOF-worthiness, but I guess that means Tayshaun Prince is headed to Springfield.
Well, McNabb's numbers are close enough to warrant consideration already, so it's not just the four NFC Championships, and that he did it for the most part with a sub-par receiving corps.
Dawkins deserves more credit and Eli much less. Eli and the HOF shouldn't be in the same sentence at this point unless you're talking about him attending his brother's induction ceremony.
I'm tired of arguing about McNabb. I like him personally. I give him credit for suviving and thriving in a town like Philly. But his propensity to run out of gas late in games is troubling. Poor conditioning should never be an issue for a superstar and team leader in his prime.
"Plus, the Pistons didn't win 4 conference championships in a row."
Well, neither did the Eagles. They went to four in a row. They won one. If were going with that comparison, McNabb/Billups makes more sense. Those Pistons teams had four good players, but Billups made them click. Billups isn't a HOF player, but his years leading the Pistons has put him another level than his numbers really show.
I don't have a strong opinion on McNabb's HOF-worthiness (I would lean against, but then again, if it would spite Rush Limbaugh...). I was commenting more to point out the absurdity of picking a totally arbitrary criterion (he took his team to 4 conference title games in a row!!!) and acting like come on, anyone who has done that is OBVIOUSLY HoF material. Every single player with even an outside shot at the Hall of Fame has SOMETHING special on their resume that you can point to.
sgwhite claims: "Todd Heap will have a shot"
At paying admission at the door like everyone else. He's sure not being admitted by the voters. Ben Coates was a better player, and he probably won't get close, either.
Wonder who got the better of that Vick/LT draft day swap?
Didn't see that coming, I admit.
Troy Aikman went to 4 NFC championships in a role(3 super bowls), so did Jim Kelly...
Tom Brady went 4 out of 5 years...
Glad these posters straightened you out about LDT, homie--you were buggin on that one!
Of the others mentioned in that article, the only locks I feel are
Ray Ray (goes without saying)
Ed Reed (I agree, its him and Ronnie Lott for all time Safety)
Kevin Mawae (but HOF selectors as Dr. Z often notes have a real mental block about giving offensive linemen their due)
Kurt Warner (this season has all but made him a lock, and if the Cards contend for the playoffs again in 09 with him at the helm, its an unquestioned lock)
On the bubble - Ward, McNabb, Edge, Dawkins, Westbrook
Need five more years of dominance-- everyone else they listed
I don't think that Hines Ward has five more years left in him. I hope so. I love watchingh him play. Voters love scrappy guys. The dude makes big plays AND blocks. I think he's got a pretty good shot. He also has a SB MVP, right?
I hope Westbrook stays healthy for a couple more years and continues to put up crazy numbers. He's gotta be one of the most underrated players of his generation. Oh yeah, put Dawk in too!!
Juba,
Sorry, everyone else needs five more years of dominance. I'm with you now...
Incertus-
Steve Young also went to 4 straight championships, although Joe Montana never did it 4 times in a role, he did go to 6 Championships in the span of 8 years.
I think the thing that hurts McNabb with that argument(4 NFC's in a role) is his record in those games(1-3). When you look at the other guys who did it, Aikman, Kelly, Young, and the ones who just missed 4 in a role, but went to more than just 4 like Brady and Montana they won those games and got their team into the SB. Plus when McNabb did it, the NFC is regarded as being the weakest it has ever been.
The Eagles lost to the Rams who were two touchdown favorites. They also lost to the Bucs when they won it. The NFC wasn't weak those two years.
I don't think McNabb gets in right now. The heaving in the Super Bowl is what does him in. He came up short in the biggest moment that counted, Hall of Famers come up big. He's still got a chance to erase all that, here hoping...
Are people really talking about Hines Ward like he's in? Seriously? I don't care about Pro Bowls - tell me how many of his 11 years he was among the top five WRs in the league. The answer is zero.
Eli Manning? The guy with a career QB rating of 76.1? That Eli Manning? The guy who ranked 14th in the NFL this season in rating? The guy with a career regular season record of 25-30? The guy who's won playoff games in exactly one season?
Okay, just making sure.
Stacy-
I will concede the Rams, and Bucs. They were great teams. But I just remember those years as kinda being a crapshoot as to who would represent the NFC. The Eagles were always a main stay, largely because the East was so horrible. The Eagles faced the Rams, Bucs, Panthers, and Falcons. None of those teams ever sniffed another NFC championship(maybe Carolina this year). The AFC has always had the Patriots, Colts, Ravens, Chargers in the mix for most of this decade. Again I am comparing the NFC now to the NFC of the 80's and 90's when I grew up, so I admit my definition of a strong conference is skewed.
He came up short in the biggest moment that counted, Hall of Famers come up big. He's still got a chance to erase all that, here hoping
Like Jim Kelly or Dan Marino or Warren Moon?
Like Jim Kelly or Dan Marino or Warren Moon?
Marino held just about every major record when he retired, Kelly went to 4 Super Bowls to McNabb's 1, and ok...I'll grant you Warren Moon. So if McNabb finishes with Warren Moon-like numbers...he should be in. Guess I'm one of those Eagles fans who don't appreciate all that he's done. I've just seen him come up short in way too many games to consider him a Hall of Famer. Plus you get tired of him playing a victim all the damn time. Again, if he we wins the big game, all is forgotten and he's God...
No way Eli Manning is in, even close, at this point.
The only reason Hines Ward would be in, would be for consistency, and being a Steeler - one of the main reasons he was in the Pro Bowls he was in. Not, on a year by year basis, a top performing receiver - except for shining in that Superbowl game.
And of course, TNC should have known that LD was a lock. But he's blinded by his Emmet Smith love. (He's still wrong on Smith being a better back than Sanders, btw. Although Smith had a better career). So he can't see any other back, be "good enough", I think.
TNC and his Emmett doll need to get a room!
:)
One, can we keep it to current players in the league.
Two, Brain Dawkins is the only Eagle whom deserves to go. the problem is safeties aren;t valued enough and Ed Reed is ahead of him
Does anyone with better football knowledge than me know who Reed is in competition with when it comes to this remark in the article: Perhaps his biggest challenge at this point is competing against the all-time greats and making his case to be the greatest free safety ever.
Zach,
Ronnie Lott and Merton Hanks.
I'm skeptical about Eli Manning. He's never been more than an average quarterback and I think we've seen enough of him to know what he's about. If he wins a few more championships, he may deserve it on that basis. But as of today if Manning goes and either Kurt Warner or Donovan McNabb doesn't than something is seriously wrong.
LT is already in. He could hang it up early like Barry Sanders or play on long past his prime like Emmitt Smith. Either way he's in. And that assumes he doesn't get healthy, bounce back and put up a few more good seasons.
I have no animosity towards Eli Manning...but RIGHT now...if he deserves HOF-consideration...then so does trent dilfer.
The hating on Donovan McNabb in that piece is ridiculous. 4 NFC Championships in a row, for crying out loud--how many QBs have ever pulled that off? Only once has he had a truly top-flight receiver to throw to, and we all know how that ended, and yet he's still put up those numbers. And he's not finished yet (though his days in Philly might still be numbered). If he's not in the HOF, something is seriously fucked up.
He choked in 3 out of those 4. The one he didn't choke in, he decided to choke in the Super Bowl instead. Yeah, I know, you can blame it on "Big Red"(that's Andy Reid to most of you), too. As to the 4 NFC Championships question. I can do you one better. Jim Kelly made it to 4 Super Bowls in a row. I am surprised you forgot that. I know that Kelly got blown out in all but one(Scott Norwood's wide right), but he did better than McNabb because 4 Super Bowls tops four league championship games.
Two, Brain Dawkins is the only Eagle whom deserves to go. The problem is safeties aren't valued enough and Ed Reed is ahead of him.
Don't forget Polumalu.
LT is a lock. I'm surprised that anyone would even argue that he wasn't. He belongs with the top 10 RB of all time. It's like trying to argue that Shaq isn't a HOFer.
HOF locks currently still playing: LT, Favre, Ray Lewis, Brady, Peyton, Moss, TO, Marvin Harrison, Tory Holt, Tony Gonzalez, Jason Taylor, Derrick Brooks, Richard Seymour, Orlando Pace, Champ Bailey,
Borderline: Zach Thomas, Issac Bruce, Kurt Warner, Edge, Hines Ward, Fred Taylor, Ty Law,
Good Shot still young: Ed Reed, Brian Urlacher, Dwight Freeney, Steve Hutchinson,
More Time: Eli Manning, Troy Polamalu, Drew Brees,
Not gunna make it: McNabb, Brian Dawkins, Shaun Alexander, Jeff Garcia,
Shit. A *torn* groin muscle...
Tomlinson doubtful against Steelers with groin injury
http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page=nfl/news/newstest.aspx?id=4202472
In any case, go Chargers!!! (and yeah, LT's a Hall of Famer...)
Bruce? Borderline? You crazy. 2nd all time yards. Its a wrap, son.
Personally, if I had a vote I would boycott all QBs, RBs, and WRs, until there are more linemen and defensive players in. How is Westbrook in the picture but not Jon Runyan or Tra Thomas? Also, in any fair world Dawkins would be a lock.
@strategichamlet
read up on your TMQ i see?
In all seriousness, how Walter Jones, Jon Runyan, Matt Light, Jeff Saturday, Steve Hutchinson, Alan Faneca are NOT in the discussion is beyond me...Some of them (light, Saturday, Faneca) where intricit in getting the teams well into the play-offs and even title-shots...
Walter Jones, Jon Runyan, Matt Light, Jeff Saturday, Steve Hutchinson, Alan Faneca are NOT in the discussion is beyond me.
Well, those gents are not in the current discussion because we're talking Hall of Famers left in the playoffs.
For safeties, the HOF line goes Reed>Dawkins>Polamalu. Polamalu needs at least another 5 years to catch Dawkins. Reed is a cut above. He plays offense on defense.
Bruce
Because the discussion is about HOFers still in the playoffs which would eliminate all but two names on your list.
As for Runyon I always thought he was a little overrated. He is more dirty than good if you ask me and Strahan used to own his ass for 2 games a year. Not saying he isn't good but I don't know about HOF
Faneca is definitely getting there. One thing about O Linemen getting in though is name recognition. It shouldn't be that way but trust me when I say it is. Thats why I say Mawae is a lock because his name is recognizable AND he has pro bowls.
One guy who should get in but likely won't is Lorenzo Neal. He is arguably the best blocking fullback in the history of the league. He brings a physical nature to any offense he plays for. But because his stats are almost non existent he has almost no shot.
Bruce? Borderline? You crazy. 2nd all time yards. Its a wrap, son.
Maybe. I think you are too focused on stats, though. How many years has he played? I think he's legally 48 years old. I would compare his impact on the NFL to someone like Mark Clayton for the Dolphins. Clayton is not in the hall.
Left tackles get their due in the hall. You've got guys coming up like Jonathon Ogden and Orlando Pace who are locks, and maybe some others like Tony Bosselli.
Well...i may have jumped the gun just a teeenie bit...but i still stand by strategichamlet's point that the HOF is filled up with RB's, Qb's and Wr's....more Line-men need to get in, more safeties...otherwise it's just a club for former players 250 pounds and under.
I would LOVE to se Lorenzo Neal get in, btw...the O-line of SD should be recognized...as should the O-line of NE and Indy...they've been SICK for the last 4 years.
Because the discussion is about HOFers still in the playoffs
Oops. I obviously didn't pick that up either. Is there supposed to be a point to breaking the playoffs down in that manner? No star power?
Just Karl
No, the article Coates linked too was about players still in the playoffs who have a chance at the Hall and how good or bad those chances are. Then we started agreeing or disagreeing with their assessments and also bringing up guys they had missed. And thats why some of the names Bruce threw out hadn't been talked about.
Did TMQ make that point? I think that's been going around for a while though. I think Aaron Schatz made a point of it recently and that's where I picked it up, though I could be mistaken. In any case though, it does seem that if a QB is drafted high and wins a Superbowl people think the HOF is theirs to lose. I'm also skeptical of more than two players on the same unit, or even offensive players on a defensive team, etc. since there is a high probability that they are riding the other guys to artificially high numbers (e.g. I would be VERY skeptical of Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, or Edgerin James, given that they played with Manning and that line), but tough to know who are the great ones and who are the freeloaders since football is such a team sport. Maybe we should induct whole units by year instead of individual players.
strageichamlet
If a QB gets into the hall usually their primary reciever is also a lock. You would be hard pressed to find a HOF QB who doesn't drag at least one WR into the hall of fame in with him.
I read somewhere that about 50 players from any given year will eventually make the hall. So this year would include someone like Brett Favre and maybe someone like Matt Ryan or ADP 15 years from now.
You would be hard pressed to find a HOF QB who doesn't drag at least one WR into the hall of fame in with him.
Dan Marino. No RBs, either.
On several occasions. He has a yearly MVP-award devoted to Non-Rb Non-Qb Non-Wr players...I've heard it made by Schatz and a couple of others, but in my mind, it's always been one of TMQ's base arguments...btw...wow, Ravens are playing some disciplined football...im truly impressed.
I don't think Brady or P. Manning will take anyone with them. Maybe Peyton could take Jeff Saturday with him.
Marvin Harrison is a HOFer for sure.
Frank
Duper and Clayton still have time. Don't forget that Marino himself only got in back in 05. Now if one of them aren't in within the next 5 years ago that would be a good example
sgwhite says: "Duper and Clayton still have time. "
Yes. The rest of time. And they'll spend it all outside of the Hall.