Among Republican voters, even now, 71% would be likely to vote for her for President of the United States.
Inexplicably quitting, for less-than-clear reasons, has managed to endear Palin to her party more.
Somewhere, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee are probably smacking their foreheads, saying, "You've got to be kidding me."
I don't know. I think this is akin to picking Super Bowl favorites in before the season. What's that great Tyson quote? Everybody's got a plan until they get hit. I would be shocked if Sarah Palin wins the Republican primary. The rigors of the campaign tend to expose amateurs.
The Beautiful Struggle: A Father, Two Sons, and an Unlikely Road to Manhood 
You are assuming the Republican rank and file, which is comprised of activists and dilettantes far crazier than your Sunday picnic Republican, care one whit about amateurism. Given their shrinking numbers and their hardcore inability to reach out to anybody from Birthers, Young Earthers, and John Birchers, I'm not sure they care about winning for the next 10-20 years.
I think you might be giving the GOP rank and file a little too much credit. Her amateurism (read: proud ignorance and incuriosness) is exactly what many in the conservative electorate love most about her. The only real question is how big this group is---and we don't really know yet. If it's a sizable portion of what's left of the Republican rump, then we could be looking at a Palin nomination in 2012---followed of course by an electoral ass-whipping of Goldwateresque proportion.
This responds to both you and norbizness. I thought about that too. But yeah, I am giving them the credit. I don't think she can make it out a primary. Not with the media being the way it is now. Not with her people being so inept. Did you hear her spokesperson talking to Anderson Cooper?
The people who drafted the last 20 years of Texas GOP platforms (return to the gold standard, the Earth is 10,000 years old, we are a White Christian nation) could watch her spokeswoman dissect a puppy on the Anderson Cooper show and come away thinking that she (the spokeswoman and/or Palin, not the the puppy) was the victim of that ambiguously gay, silver-haired elitist.
T- I think that you are right on here. While I and others have compared her to W., because of the arrogant yet folksy everyman red-kneck appeal, the difference is that Bush was not under much national scrutiny before he got elected, was well disciplined with the media pre-election, and most importantly was a frontman for the Big Oil Haliburton types who were really electing the darth VP. Palin is just more extreme on all accounts than candidate Bush who ran as a man selling bipartisanship and compassionate conservatism. The real question is will Romney get taken out like H. Clinton did by someone not yet a national name?
Bush also had a much better reputation before his presidency. He was widely perceived to be a very successful two-term governor, and in addition to having the backing of the Halliburton wing of the GOP (the most opulent one, har-har) and, while he exposed his sort of rube-ishness on the campaign trail (couldn't find most countries on a map, knew little about important international issues), Palin is just on a whole other level.
Bush was disciplined with the media and he had Rove, and he listened to Rove. He was able to follow directions. Palin has no Rove (what, Bill Kristol? I think it's safe to say that Billy is no Karl Rove.) and even if she did, would she follow directions? She caught her main PR person, Meg Stapleton, flat footed with her resignation, blackberries notwithstanding.
But win or lose, if she runs for the nomination, it will be destructive for the GOP. It's not clear if she understands this or that, if she does, that she cares.
Actually Schmidt was a Rove disciple, so yeah, she wouldnt listen.
I wonder if Rove and Schmidt still talk.
The other possibility is that the Republican crazies will own the primaries, and more rational potential Republican voters will stay home out of depression or ennui. It's been known to happen.
TNC, since I am probably correct about Douthat, could you please unban my original nic?
domo arigato gozaimasu,
matoko_chan
Hey, matoko. The whole dead fish part of her speech was aimed at Krauthammer and Goldberg, so maybe you have a point.
What's interesting is that so far no 2010 candidates are falling over themselves to ask for her help. You'd thing there's be a stampede for her endorsement and much touted fundraising ability (especially Rubio, who needs the bucks). The only offer she's received is from Steele who really wants to talk to her about how she can help the GOP.
Personally, if I was a candidate that had any chance of winning, I'd be thinking twice about asking for her help. I'd be wondering whether she might upstage me in my own campaign or otherwise damage me. It's unclear if she'd be a manageable ally or a loose cannon.
However, it might be that there is a vast right wing conspiracy out to get Sarah Palin, and they've put the word out to the 2010 candidates.
Matoko,
I don't hate you, and I appreciate your e-mails. But your obsession with Ross is unproductive. This one is banned too, btw.
I'd be surprised if she even runs in 2012 -- I think she has other ambitions. But I think you're right that if she did run, she wouldn't make it out of the primary, not if she is the same Sarah Palin from last fall. She'd get chewed up in the debates. The problem, for the GOP, would be this though: anyone who attacked Palin would have his negatives shoot up.
Palin may not be the sharpest knife in the drawer, but she is, culturally, what Republican candidates (and some Democrats) often pretend to be: rural, church-going, a hunter, has worked with her hands, etc. Palin is smart enough to realize the appeal this accident of authenticity gives her, and she has the charm to work it.
I like Romney, but we can't have Romney sandbagging Palin. Even if he won the primary, that would kill him among Republicans in the general. If Palin runs in 2012, we'll a second-tier candidate to run and target her the whole time, while Romney stays above the fray, and talks about how he can fix the economy.
What do you mean "we," kemo sabe?
"What do you mean "we," kemo sabe?"
That should be clear from the context of the first sentence in the last paragraph: people who, like me, support Romney.
It actually sounds like she wants to unseat Michael Steele. Romney, Dave? Now there's an authentic man of the people. Good luck.
"It actually sounds like she wants to unseat Michael Steele. Romney, Dave? Now there's an authentic man of the people. Good luck."
I was thinking along the same lines re Palin. Either RNC chair, or creating her own grassroots organization.
If the economy is still sucking ass in 2012, people may prefer a guy with Romney's background and expertise to fix it to some faux man of the people.
She would probably manage the RNC horribly but raise funds spectacularly.
Three guesses as to which factor decides if she gets the job.
If the economy is still sucking ass in 2012, people may prefer a guy with Romney's background and expertise to fix it to some faux man of the people.
Having had Romney as a Governoer, all I can say is, Oh. Hell. No.
@Dave,
"I was thinking along the same lines re Palin. Either RNC chair, or creating her own grassroots organization."
Or maybe try to graft herself atop the Tea Party Movement. Why re-invent the wheel when you can appropriate a perfectly good one nobody is using?
I don't think she can make it out either, but it'll be a spectacular train wreck watching her try.
She would be brutally exposed. I'm definitely rooting for her to run, just so I can see how nasty Huck can get with her. My guess: very.
Agreed. And he'd have to get ugly to separate himself out for the constituency they share. And displaying that on national television would undermine him for the long haul. Mutual annihilation. Cool!
Also, I think those numbers are so high right now because Republicans view it as a big F-U to the elite librul media.
This is an important point. I think that sentiment is deeply felt among the remaining GOP faithful and drives a large part of their political activity.
I wouldn't be shocked; if she can take out Huckabee in Iowa, she's got a very good chance. I'm guessing NH will go for Romney, but I can't see Romney doing well in the South.
It won't be easy beating Huckabee as the returning champ, so she's gotta hope he makes some mistakes, which considering he's not likely to have a sex scandal emerge and he's not in government, may not be likely. But she has time to figure something out.
I'm still thinking Pawlenty could be a factor too--Obama won the North pretty big, so maybe more Republicans will push for him.
Sometimes I almost feel guilty about talking politics; it gets like talking sports, except the winner gets to decide who to bomb.
Pawlenty, my dear departing governor, scares me plenty. He is good at showing the rightwing that he's one of them (and he is) while coming off as a likable moderate to everyone else.
Following up on what Stacy said, it's obvious that the only categorical imperative in 21st century conservative thought is to "do that which drives liberals (i.e. anybody to the left of John McCain) crazy." I'm not saying that Andrew Sullivan is an actual liberal, or that he's been driven legitimately crazy by Sarah Palin, but 219 consecutive posts does seem to vindicate her as a 21st century conservative choice.
That's not Tyson, that's Joe Louis, man.
I thought it was Clausewitz. As in "No Battle Plan Survives Contact With The Enemy". But I looked it up and that quote was from Moltke (Helmuth Carl Bernard von Moltke).
You know, for the longest time I thought I would be delighted if she ran for the Republican nomination and won. My reasoning was that if she did, it would be a sure fire Obama win in 2012. I've since changed my mind. There are too many idiots that would actually vote for her and if the economy stays the way it is and the wars keep going like they are, then people might get fed up and she might actually win.
I don't know, man. If she's starting the race now, she's got a long way to run--and she's bound to get tired and cranky. It's been less than a week since she announced her resignation; she's done several interviews, but we STILL don't know why she resigned. If she's this obtuse over a matter of days, her hokey populist act will get really old, really fast. Three-plus years of that mess simply won't hold up.
And can you imagine her in a primary debate? Seriously? It'll look like Vanilla Ice vs. Wu-Tang Clan.
I would have agreed with that just a week ago, but the fact that her popularity is actually improving boggles my damn mind. Nothing she says makes sense - ever - and the fact that she has made it this far with those speeches and her ever-increasing lunacy is a testimony to the lackadaisical attitude some Americans take towards voting. We've been putting up with her nonsense for the better part of a year. People are voting based on faux populism, extreme ideology, and catch phrases rather than policy and competence. I think I'd prefer not to tempt the fates with her as a candidate. This country is in enough trouble as it is!
I agree completely. I saw Garry Trudeau (author of the Doonesbury comic) give a speech at Yale back before 2000. He was asked which of the republicans he would most like see to win the nomination. His answer was George W. Bush because, as he said, Bush was so crazy he hired a private investigator on himself and then announced to the press that the investigator couldn't find anything. He thought Bush was a joke and a sure source of hilarity. He was right on one count, but not on the other. Always be careful of what you wish for, because it might come true. I'd like the republicans to nominate the least potentially damaging candidate and for Obama to defeat them anyway. If Obama loses, we have to live with the result.
dylan
Debating is actually one of Palin's few strengths I think.
She held her own against Biden.
If by "held her own" you mean she basically ignored everything Biden said in favor of spouting clearly rehearsed platitudes and blatant lies that people like Sullivan had been covering for weeks prior all while winking like an overacting porn starlet, then yes. Yes, she did.
She WAS in a campaign, and it DID expose her, but it's apples and oranges - reality and rightwing reality. Her idiocy and cluelessness is a feature to them, NOT a bug. They see us shaking our heads at her clear not-ready-for-prime-time ness (and discussing it) and they think we are angry and scared, which is job one of a rightwing leader for them.
So SP has it all in their eyes - she just keeps looking better.
Yeah. I don't know why we pretend that objective truth matters in politics, especially when Palin is involved. The politicians will make it up, and the MSM will report on it like it's a football game.
They love her because, in their minds, she makes libruls crazy.
That's it. Nothing else there, nothing else needed.
I agree, TNC--look at Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson. HUGE popular support--until they actually began campaigning.
Whatever that 71% may think now, I feel certain that number will shrink by the middle of a primary campaign.
But, yes, Romney and Huckabee have gotta be in major WTF mode.
I can't see her as any sort of serious contender. During the general election, she was shielded from almost all media scrutiny by her handlers. She's not going to be able to get through the primary without holding a press conference.
When she was criticized last year, most conservatives simply used argued ad hominem, which they won't really be able to do in 2012. Think about it, it's one thing go after anyone who isn't supportive of the national ticket. It's quite another to actually take sides in a primary against her fellow conservative Republicans. If it's Huck, or Pawlenty, or someone else, it won't be those evil libruls and their useful idiots making the attacks. It will one of their own.
I think that their ability to overwhelm websites with their vitriol and to call in to radio shows makes people think the right wing crazies numbers are greater than they are. As TNC is probably reading, McClellan was slow to act because he was always under the mistaken impression that Confederate forces outnumbered his troops. That's a mistake that we as thinking people cannot afford to make.No matter what it looks like, we simply are not out numbered by fools.
Were these numbers about Palin's alleged popularity broken down and given any context? I'm guessing that she isn't as popular among young voters as is she is among those over 65. And let's face it, the over 65's are going to die at a much faster rate over the next three years than the under 25's. Are these folks who are so gung-ho for a Palin presidency already living in solidly republican states like Oklahoma? Obama can't win there anyway so it makes no difference. And I'm sure they didn't ask Democrats, because Palin on the republican ticket will insure enormous numbers of new voter registrations and even more votes for Obama than he received in 2008.
I agree with TNC. Exposing herself to the rigors of the daily grind of a Presidential campaign would be her undoing.
Every candidate gets into hot water at some time or another in a long campaign. Hillary had Tuzla, Obama had Rev. wright and that SF comment. It is a really skilled politician who can ride those storms out. She is not that person. She has not surrounded herself with those people either. And even if she did, every bit of evidence suggests that she knows better than they do anyway.
The press conference by the lake was instructive. Someone with a real team in place would have handled the situation far differently.
To use a football analogy, she is the Wasilla HS football team and Obama is The 2008/09 Pittsburgh Steelers.
Don't forget that Giuliani actively, and quite likely intentionally, drove his campaign over a cliff.
Democrats should hope to run against such high negatives, the only poll number that matters.
The 71% reflects nothing more than the sort of been-on-TV, nothing-but-name-recognition reflex that propelled serial careerist McCain to a nomination.
Intentionally? Why?
I'm not sure that Giuliani meant to do as poorly as he did. I do think that his presidential run was great promotion for his consulting company.
I think Steve is just misreading the question. It seems to me that 71% of Republicans are saying they'd vote for her *against a Democrat,* which actually seems awfully low to me, given that Republican candidates generally get ~90% of self ID'd Republicans in general elections.
I think Steve is just misreading the question. It seems to me that 71% of Republicans are saying they'd vote for her *against a Democrat
I was about to make this same point, put any Republican up against Obama and I'd bet they'd all get at least 71% of the Republican vote.
For those who are interested, here's the poll with the breakdowns and questions asked.
USA Today Poll
71% of the votes of 25% of the voters is 18% of the vote.
I'll cheerfully add in 50% of 20% who call themselves independent the day before the 2012 election. That's 10% more of the total vote.
Obama re-elected by 72%, anyone?
Palin has only ever run against people who actually give a fuck about sounding sexist or looking like they're beating up on a woman, and she got the Republican base behind her when the alternative, to them, was the communegro antichrist. Her entire game consists of alternating between sounding like Father Coughlin in high heels and playing the victim. Do you think that could possibly work against a conservative WASP who's free to completely unload on her? She'd get slaughtered in the Republican primary
communegro antichrist
Add 'superstar' and you've got a punk rock band.
We have to keep in mind that less than 30% of voters in the country identify as republicans, so we're talking about 70% of 30%. That is not a large number. Granted, I still can't believe even that many people would support her...
For all the talk about charisma and charm, it's shocking to me that none of the so-called political experts ever mention the other "C" word, the most important: Competency. Charisma only gets you so far. Yes, President Obama, then candiate Obama, had tons, but that's not what one him the election. It was his perceived competency in the wake of the economic crisis. Can any serious person tell me that they truly believe that if Mitt Romney, with all of his severe deficiancy in charisma, were on the Republican ticket wouldn't have helped John McCain when that crisis hit? I'm as big a supporter of Obama as they come, but I thanked God that he wasn't on the ticket at that moment.
imho, most posters are over-estimating the kind of scrutiny that she would be exposed to, in another national campaign.
despite her protestations, she was able to live within a cocoon during her time on the stump with mccain. she had not a single news conference. she selectively chose the interviewers she exposed herself to. (the couric interview was probably seen as a softball, considering couric's reputation.)
and what has happened since her ridiculous announcement has truly been amazing. instead of actually drilling down and asking tough questions about her supposed reasons for resigning, the media has essentially allowed her to dictate the terms on which any inquiries were to be conducted. she even summoned the media to the top of the world so a series of photo op, people magazine level interviews could be conducted.
and while i didn't see all of them i saw several of the interviews and despite obvious issues and questions, she has simply been allowed to smooth off the rough edges of the initial announcement she made last friday. open ended questions and rambling talking point answers.
and oh yes, these interviews were conducted in the shadow of a threat by palin: that anyone inquiring into certain delicate areas would be sued. the threat appeared to work, as no one - as far as i could tell - dared venture into those indelicate areas.
i would fully expect the same dynamic to hold throughout any campaign. as your colleague, andrew sullivan, continually notes, there are dozens of absolute lies and contradictions in her history of public statements. during the course of an interview, she will make what are obviously false - or at the very least, questionable - statements that any competent journalist should be able and prepared to follow up on. but it doesn't happen.
what makes anyone believe that it would be any different in 3 years?
she has stumbled upon a method and strategy for dealing with the media - a combination of intimidation, carrots (access) and the incredible advantage of having a "news" network that acts as a combination of public relations firm and media shield.
what has been going on the last few days is just a preview. wait till she gets that show on fox.
There's a huge difference between campaigning as the V-P candidate of a party's already-chosen nominee, and campaigning to become that nominee. She was kept under virtual lockdown with the exception of the Gibson/Couric interviews and the Biden debate. Primary campaigns simply don't afford that luxury.
She'll be eviscerated during a primary campaign and, as commenters above have pointed out, she will be eviscerated by people "on her own side." I can't see her having a snowball's chance in hell.
why won't she be able to control the media as a presidential candidate?
if she will be able to turn to her friends on fox whenever she wants to get her message out, why would she have to expose herself to less friendly voices?
because in the primary it is her vs other conservatives, the conservatives won't all circle the wagons to protect her, some will be for Romney, some for Huckabee, etc.
She's controlling the media now! Did you see the interviews yesterday? Was there any substanitive difference between yesterday's interviews with the MSM and the previous with Greta? You would expect the print interviews, especially Time's, to be more delving, but it seems Jay Newton Small handed Palin the pen and told her to write the interview to her liking.
republicans really do believe in and practice ronald reagan's 11 commandment: though shall not attack other republicans.
republicans simply approach those issues differently than democrats, who typically have tough and entertaining primaries.
it just doesn't happen on the republican side. remember the minor little dust-ups between romney and mccain?
that type of exchange would have barely registered if it had been dems, but because the combatants were republicans, a somewhat curt exchange became front page news. and that was between two guys who hate each others' guts.
they may not circle the wagons, but no one is going to really go after her and eviscerate her.
as noted, she has a devoted, rabid base that would absolutely turn on anyone who did so.
also, she will be able to use the huge war chest she is going to start accumulating now to intimidate anyone who might think of doing so.
and last, but not least, as a woman, it will always be tougher for the male candidates to attack her without appearing to be bullies.
anyone who thinks that this woman is going to allow herself to be attacked by her fellow republicans has not been watching her operate. the first man who dares to do so will get a warning shot that will warn off anyone else who might think of doing something similar.
AND she will have the full backing of fox news, to amplify whatever complaint she brings forth.
if she is not the candidate, it will be because of a self-inflicted mortal wound that will be so massive that even fox news will not be able to cover it up and make it go away.
Frankie D- except that whole Rove attacking McCain thing.
Also, the lockdown held (barely) for two months. In a media-focused general election campaign. You simply cannot win Iowa or New Hampshire by giving fluffy TV interviews. Primary voters in those states take their "first in the nation, retail politics" role very seriously. Combine the demands of a primary campaign with her inability to take advice with the need to keep the whole show going for nearly two years... she hasn't got a chance.
what has been going on the last few days is just a preview. wait till she gets that show on fox.
What happens when it's other Republicans criticizing her in a primary race? The biggest part of her shielding is people being able to say "it's just the liberal media bias" If Romney and Huckabee start going after her, she'll lose the biggest advantage she has.
they won't go into her most vulnerable areas.
they'll get into policy differnces and they will talk about her resignation and what that might indicate about her willing to fight.
but no one on the republican side will poke at her soft underbelly, the whole range of questions that would expose her as the psychotic fraud she is.
they cannot afford to do so. because of her popularity within the republican base, they will tread very lightly around those explosive issues, lest they suffer a backlash that could blow them out of the water.
also, palin has a real talent.
she is able to knock back attacks because she is willing to attack be incredibly nasty and she is willing to lie without reservation. and she gets away with it because no one is willing to escalate to the level she is willing to go to. very few people can simply flat out lie as she can, and do so without it being painfully obvious.
i've unfortunately dealt with a couple of pathological liars in my lifetime and she reminds me of those people.
never underestimate how important such a trait can be. while most politicians will draw certain lines, palin won't. and other republicans know this and that understanding will act as a real brake on how hard they will go after her.
"they won't go into her most vulnerable areas."
Mitt Romney will go wherever he has to. That guy doesn't know "finesse", he doesn't know "restraint", he's never heard of "backlashes", he's just nothing but hamfisted attacks, usually based on whatever the LAST campaign was about.
Seriously, if you're worried no one's going to be nasty enough to Palin, Mitt Romney is here to ease your worries.
As for Palin's "media manipulation", it's way overstated. The McCain people- who now hate her- may have been able to pull a lot of it off during the campaign, but it was falling apart at the end, with all the leaks, process stories, and interviews with McCain holding her hand. And even when they COULD limit the media to only covering Palin the way they wanted them to, the voters still hated her.
Look how she is now, without the campaign. She's not embarked on some grand media strategy, she's flailing, lurching from one scandal or pity-party to another. No rhyme, no reason, no narrative, no message. She's been okay at putting her name at the top of the newscycle, but that's different from real media manipulation.
If she does try her kind of media blackout thing, it's not gonna hold up for an entire two-year campaign.
I have to say that if any individual is currently supporting Palin as a candidate now that there isn't any reason to assume that they won't support her in 2012. She has been in the public eye for about, what, 8 months now? In that time I've seen her embarrass herself in any interview where the questions weren't spoonfed by Sean Hannity. I saw a debate performance where she was unable to answer any question on policy or even to accurately describe the responsibilities that the position she was seeking comes with. I saw nearly the entire McCain campaign staff throw her under the straight talk express for her incompetance. The resignation of her governorship and speech explaining it were utterly bizarre and no one really knows understands her motivations save Sarah herself.
Whew.
Now, if somebody can see all of that and still say that they would vote for her what do you really think that it would take to change their mind? I'm at a loss there. If she hasn't already convinced a person that she is not fit for public office I just don't know what would make the point.
I still believe that a majority of the total voting public is never going to give their vote to her but a majority of Republican primary voters, that could happen. Probably not. I hope not. Maybe.
Among Republican voters, even now, 71% would be likely to vote for her for President of the United States.
Inexplicably quitting, for less-than-clear reasons, has managed to endear Palin to her party more.
Somewhere, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee are probably smacking their foreheads, saying, "You've got to be kidding me."
HILARIOUS...
HILARIOUS....
I don't care if the Iowa GOP IS full of Holy Rollers...these are folks that take Presidential Politics seriously.
And, I didn't even get to the folks in New Hampshire.
I just don't believe she can babble from house party to VFW Hall in Iowa and New Hampshire, and it be acceptable.
Maybe I'm thinking more of Republican voters than I should, but I know the folks in New Hampshire, and unless it's gone crazy...no way she sells there.
new hampshire?
easy...
romney comes in with 30% of the vote.
jeb bush comes in with 20 percent of the vote.
huckabee gets 15 percent...
palin has her solid base of about 35% of republican voters.
what folks seem to forget is that this is not going to be a 2 person race. most likely, especially at that point in the race, there are 4 or 5 candidates in the primary, splitting the vote.
a well-funded candidate with a passionate following has the best chance in any particular state.
speaking of that kind of voter, if i'm not mistaken, didn't that paleo-nazi pat buchanan win new hampshire?
granted, it's changed since '96, but the republican voters are still pretty much the same.
and those buchanan voters are uncomfortably similar to palin's supporters.
Frankie d, Just want to say I think you've got the whole Palin scenario exactly right. Unfortunately.
I hear ya, frankied. I see where you're coming from about the GOP populace.
The biggest issue is what is happening with the economy in 2011-12. If the nation remains in the tank, which is a very real possibility, all bets are off.
On this, we need to applaud Sullivan. He's been truly on this from the beginning, and thank goodness.
To quote the "Quitta from Wasila", "I know that, I know that, I know that" Sarah Palin will not be running for president in 2012. Two main reasons:
Babygirl just doesn't want to work that hard. Forget what she says, look at what she actually does. Three times a quitter (not counting colleges.) If you are new at the game, unless you are a really serious person, the briefing books alone will kill ya'. And like her former national running mate, Babygirl may want to "become" POTUS, but she will probably be facing some primary opponents who, like Obama, actually want to "BE" POTUS. She does appear to love the limelight and attention but she can get all that and a lot more bucks with considerably less sweat. (BTW, if the economy is still tanking by early 2011, then all bets are off.)
As a former card carrying member of the GOP electoral establishment, I promise you, Babygirl and the First Dude scared the shit out of my former colleagues. Its true they did not know a lot about Gov. Palin when McCain tapped her, but what they learned first was that she could not be controlled or advised or schooled (see most recent Time interview) or honed or polished (shopping spree notwithstanding.) All of the above may endear her to the "base" but If you are not a member in good standing of the GOP electoral establisment, that's a non-starter.
One of the commentators on Kung Fu Monkey (great blog by the way, guy who wrote the first transformers movie and is a wirter/producer on Leverage, so too busy to post much unfortunately) won the Palin resignation with this gem:
She will be transferring to a couple other governorships until she builds up enough time to finish a term...
Seriously though, why is she on vacation now? When you give your 2 weeks notice to quit a job aren't you kind of expected to finish the 2 weeks? Your about to have plenty of vacation. The people of Alaska should be demanding that she pay back her salary for all the time she has taken off.