Comments for Why Palin Won't Make It Out Of A GOP Primary

Why Palin Won't Make It Out Of A GOP Primary

2009-07-10T18:00:00Z

Because her spokesperson is trading shots with a 19-year old kid. It makes liberals, like me, feel good that the GOP is a wreck, and the notion of Sarah Palin as the standard-bearer only increases the scale of that wreckage. It also validates a certain idea about certain voters, and their relative intelligence. I would just argue that we should not confuse a poll with the rigors of an actual election. A lot of you think I'm underestimating Palin. But I think people are underestimating the GOP. The desire to win has a way of taming folks.

Comment from sv on 2009-07-10

2009-07-10T18:14:02Z

There are a lot of people who are natural 'c'onservatives and were natural 'R'epublicans for a long time, but who can't f*** with this current GOP, and are either sitting out or voting other parties, write-ins, pulling their hair out, etc. You're right not to underestimate THOSE people - it's not just the desire to win which has made them eschew Palin et al (and expecting them to read things that way IS giving them a lot of credit, but I agree with you that this is the way things are gonna go), but more fundamentally, a desire to vote for somebody who *actually* stands for what they believe in, instead of incoherently mouthing support while backing it up with no substance whatsoever. She's not finished trying at politics, but she is done winning elections.

Comment from kerouax on 2009-07-10

2009-07-10T18:15:42Z

I would agree. There's no way in hell she's relevant in 2012. I just can't see it. And though it's currently easy to dismiss the GOP out-of-hand - with good reason - that ship's bound to be righted sometime soon, right?

I just worry about turning the entire party into a caricature (as tempting, and seeming justified as that impulse is). Further, I sure hope the party rights itself because (I think) a healthy GOP makes for a healthier democracy at large (I think...).

I'm not even sure if "taming" if most applicable here; common sense, at some point, has to return.

Comment from Invisman52 on 2009-07-10

2009-07-10T18:23:06Z

TNC and commentators:
Check out Glenn Loury and Brink Lindsey's bloggingheads from this week. And especially watch the last five minutes when Lindsey, a conservative-libertarian, lays into Palin and the GOP like you would not believe. He echoes TNC's sentiments, there. He actually says he wants liberalism to succeed if Palin if what conservatism is. It is a WONDERFUL five minutes. (The rest of the episode is solidly OK). Along similar veins I heard Colin Powell speak at Stanford earlier this year and he laid out some of the same problems that Lindsey does--in humorous and away from MEET THE PRESS fashion. (That show is awful; David Gregory is not good...)

Here is the bloggingheads link:

http://bloggingheads.tv/diavlogs/21007

Comment from brent on 2009-07-10

2009-07-10T18:23:38Z

I find it difficult not to laugh at this person. I get that its generally unhelpful to take your political opponents less than seriously but I actually find her outright laughable.

You're correct. She is engaging in a public feud with a teenager. I think even the crazier members of congress (I'm looking at you Michelle Bachmann) would know better but here we are.

Comment from eric k on 2009-07-10

2009-07-10T18:24:01Z

Yeah the GOP primary system pretty much always comes up with the guy with the best chance to win the general. Look at McCain, he probably was only the preferred choice by at most a third of their voters but he was probably the guy with the best chance, which says a lot about how bad the other guy's chances all were:-)

Comment from sans-culottes on 2009-07-10

2009-07-10T18:28:28Z

I don't want to spoil it, but he makes a pretty convincing case that Palin is the Marion Barry of Angry White Men. I honestly don't think she's really working on a run in '12. Someone around her would have managed to explain how boneheaded a play that would be.

Comment from MikeCee on 2009-07-10

2009-07-10T18:36:07Z

As an Obama Democrat I'd LOVE to see her run in the 12' primary. I agree TNC, there is no way in hell she wins it but she will peel away enough of the looney bin wingnut fringe from any legit R contender that they will be weakened or just plain ol looking silly by the time they get to the general. I say give us more of that real america for real americans jazz. Its better than watching cartoon network and the popcorn MSM would eat it up and ask for more.

Comment from pragmatic idealist on 2009-07-10

2009-07-10T18:38:15Z

So . . your point is that the Palin level of communication is too mature for the presidential Republican primary?

Comment from dmf on 2009-07-10

2009-07-10T18:50:49Z

that seems right, no pun intended, but don't sleep on folks like Chuck Hegel who read the coming anti-Bush backlash (and came out early and hard against Palin) and are now biding their time and watching the unemployment numbers et al pulling Obama's numbers down with them.

Comment from Sorn on 2009-07-10

2009-07-10T18:52:02Z

While everyone is focusing on Palin.....Marc Racicot comes in and takes the GOP from behind.......

Seriously, why can't she just go away? Does she love the lights? The glamour? Or is she the kid at the party who thinks she's cool, but, in reality, is too dumb to know everyone is laughing at her?

I think she'd probably be just as happy as a spokeperson for Philip Morris. She has enough white-trash sex appeal to be the new Marlborough woman.

Comment from Elise on 2009-07-10

2009-07-10T18:55:50Z

Here's the story unfiltered by the Huffington Post: Anchorage Daily News

Comment from kekemen on 2009-07-10

2009-07-10T19:17:31Z

I'mma come out and say this, and make my call now. The GOP is going to turn this around. I say watch out in 2012. Palin's not going to run - if she does, her own party is going to shut her down, fast, because they can't afford getting tased nonstop like this, with her antics. But the GOP is going to put up a fight. They're not just going to go away, no matter how much we liberals hug ourselves with satisfaction every time they embarrass themselves. Karma's a bitch for a reason, so I stay off the smug. And I don't underestimate the GOP machine.

Comment from ellaesther on 2009-07-10

2009-07-10T19:23:58Z

I'm a big ol' liberal, and I have to say, I am so not enjoying the GOP show. We have a two-party democracy, and when one party is this deeply dysfunctional, we all suffer. Honest to Moses.

Also, I've this before on these boards, but what the hell, I have writer's bloc on my own work so I'll repeat myself: Palin won't be nominated -- wouldn't be nominated if the primaries were next week -- because she's a wack job. Remember all the wack jobs who scared us so much last year? McCain got the nod. I didn't/don't like him and wouldn't vote for him, but he's not crazy. "The desire to win," as Mr. Coates points out, "has a way of taming folks."

Comment from Katherine on 2009-07-10

2009-07-10T19:33:04Z

She's not just engaging in a public feud with a teenager, she's LOSING. When a 19-year old unwed father comes off as the more mature and responsible party, the other side of the feud is NOT a serious candidate for President of the United States.

Comment from eric k on 2009-07-10

2009-07-10T19:34:43Z

I think the smart reps are waiting for 2016

Comment from TG on 2009-07-10

2009-07-10T19:34:51Z

TNC: Sarah Palin is "the Marion Berry of the GOP." Heh!
Did you get that one? Brink Lindsey just opened a keg of whup ass on the Palin circus.

Comment from CitizenE on 2009-07-10

2009-07-10T20:13:58Z

Ronald Raagan? You must be kidding me. Seen one redwood, seen 'em all? The guy's a pitchman for Boraxo soap on Death Valley Days (do any of you know what Boraxo soap is? Bad smelling, gray, granular hand soap that feels like fine grain sand between them when you wash. And Death Valley Days? A b grade tv western show of no particular merit that had the hottest, driest locale in America for a setting. That's what RR did in the 50s and early 60s). George W. Bush? the man who ran every business he had a hold of into the ground? Drunk, cokehead, draft dodger? Even as governor--dull as a stump?

I heard these things.

Believe me, no one took Ronald Reagan seriously in the least when he began his march on Washington. Ah, but he had acting skills, you say. And W.? Elected not once, but twice.

Comment from BillS on 2009-07-10

2009-07-10T21:20:22Z

Yeah, this is exactly what I've been thinking. There's just two real choices when you go to vote. If the majority of voters gets sick of one side, there's only one other place to go. Dangerous clowns do get elected.

The right wing keeps moving right; Nixon would seem like a lefty to almost any prominent republican today. They may not nominate Palin, but they'll sure pick someone from their whack wing. Really, what else do they have?

Reagan's speechwriter had a worthwhile article today in the Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124716984620819351.html), which actually touched on some of the democracy/meritocracy issues. It's a safe bet she'll be attacked by a lot of the people who praise Reagan.

Comment from pete from baltimore on 2009-07-10

2009-07-10T21:25:06Z

Ellaesther
I was going to make a comment but you said what I felt a lot better than i could.As you say "we all suffer".I also agree with you about Palin not having a chance.

People wonder why she doesn't say whether she will run or not.But if she had said that she would not run would anyone be paying attention to her right now.Would we even be having this conversation.All politicians like attention.She will try to stay in the spotlight as long as she can.

Once again Ellaesther your comment was right on the money.

Comment from pete from baltimore on 2009-07-10

2009-07-10T21:32:53Z

People here might think i am crazy for saying this. But my prediction is that Olympia Snowe or Susan Collins will run in 2012 and they will get the nomination.

Some people may argue that the far right hates both of them.Well , as Ellaesther mentioned a few comments ago the far right hated McCain as well and he won the nomination.

You don't have to get the majority of votes in the primary.You just have to get the most.Obama pretty much ended up running against Clinton.But McCain was able to stand back and watch his opponents destroy each other.

If there are 4 or 5 far right canidates in 2012 someone like Olympia Snowe or Susan Collins could have a very good chance.

As for Palin I think that she has almost no chance

Comment from Jennifer D. on 2009-07-10

2009-07-10T21:56:33Z

She might not make it out of the GOP primary, and oh how much I hope that is right, but I think she'll be in it. She's on the cover of Time magazine next week with the headline "The Renegade." She is media candy and they love their sweets.

Comment from Doctor Jay on 2009-07-10

2009-07-10T22:00:31Z

"The desire to win has a way of taming folks" My response to this, thinking of California state politics, is "if only".

California is in desperate structural trouble. We got there because a 2/3rds majority is needed in the Legislature to pass any budget whatsoever. It's built in to the Constitution via the Proposition system, which is also crazy. A simple majority of voters can amend the California constitution. It's nuts.

What it means is that the Republicans don't actually need to win a majority in the Legislature to stop the liberals from raising taxes, they just need to stay above 35 percent. So they stick to there extreme social positions and "no taxes". They don't have to be relevant or competitive around the state, just pander to their base, and they get a lot of their program.

The National scene is different fortunately. Palin is going to have to run well in states like Missouri and Iowa, and if I know Iowans, they won't like her much at all. To loud, too flashy, too much bedroom in the news. There will be slice that will be devoted to her, to be sure, but she's better off fundraising from them.

Comment from pete-rock on 2009-07-10

2009-07-10T22:38:32Z

I agree with the earlier poster who said Palin probably thinks she's not done, but she really is. As far as the GOP goes? I'm a liberal Dem who thinks they will right their ship around their moderates and fiscal conservatism. I still say they will be a force to be reckoned with and will even gain Congressional seats in 2010. Our economic morass will successfully be blamed on Obama.

But this is where it gets tricky. I wouldn't be surprised if the "Real American" social conservatives get left behind by the moderates, and then feel compelled to establish a third political party akin to the Dixiecrats of the '40s and '50s.

Comment from wendy on 2009-07-10

2009-07-10T23:03:56Z

Obama's aleady given them their 2016 option: Jon Huntsman.

The guy was looking like a reasonable choice already as Utah gov, a few years as ambassador to China keeps him out of the way and untained during the crazy years and he'll come back with solid foreign policy and international finance credentials.

Comment from anna perez on 2009-07-10

2009-07-10T23:45:48Z

Um, that would be me. Like many moderates and small "c" conservatives, i also support gay rights, a woman's right to chose, religious freedom (which includes the right to not be religious at all) and separation of church and state, all of which I view as privacy, equal protection or less intrusive gov.t. issues. As a result, I was for many years, happily a Republican (plus, 30 years ago a Republican US Senator gave me my first job in gov/politics on the advice of a Black woman.)

But the people who now control the party have lost their damn minds. So, I've left the party--just in time to vote for Pres. Obama, who even during the campaign struck me as more small "c" conservative than many may have thought. I do not support his every move. I wish we didn't have to have so much govt. intervention in the private sector, but the private sector has screwed up so badly in so many ways, thanks in no small part to extreme "laissez faire" policies and simple greed, that it is now, unfortunately, necessary.

Sarah Palin is a joke--a very bad joke (see today's Peggy Noonan column.) And as I posted earlier, her supporters' faith in her is "so childish as to verge on the imbecile."

Comment from Jennifer D. on 2009-07-10

2009-07-11T00:51:36Z

She has enough white-trash sex appeal to be the new Marlborough woman.

Hey, I resemble that remark! Just have to say - I can't tolerate the woman, but you have to give her fitness props. She was a high school athlete, was featured on the cover of Runner's World and she is pretty damn sporty.

Comment from eric k on 2009-07-10

2009-07-11T02:47:28Z

when you don;t actually do your job you have lots of time to work out

Comment from eric k on 2009-07-10

2009-07-11T02:49:20Z

yeah a system where 50%+1 can approve spending but it takes 2/3rds to pass the taxes to pay for it is an insane way to run a government

Comment from Ha! on 2009-07-11

2009-07-11T06:10:38Z

Come on now, that's not entirely fair; we've all seen the Obama six pack.

Comment from Marcos El Malo on 2009-07-11

2009-07-11T23:20:19Z

Me, as well. It wasn't until this year that I registered as an independent, but I never once voted for George Bush nor McCain. My general preferences for market mechanisms over regulation have been shaken by the financial crisis, but I always understood the need for some regulation and safety nets.

The basic contradiction tearing apart the GOP is the contradiction between the idea of Liberty and the idea of state enforced morality. Rather than face this schism between the fiscal conservatives and the social conservatives (which might require thinking), many Republicans are turning to a faith based partisanship, which requires a leader to tell them what they want to hear and to paper over the cracks. Thus Sarah Palin.

I've always had libertarian tendencies, but I've always thought that there were too many nut cases in the Libertarian Party. It is amazing to me that today the GOP is considerably more crazy while the LP is a portrait of sanity in comparison. (It is possible that this is because a number of sane conservatives have moved over to the LP from the GOP the last few years.)

Comment from Marcos El Malo on 2009-07-11

2009-07-11T23:22:11Z

He has some choice words for Bill Kristol as well.

Comment from Josh Jasper on 2009-07-13

2009-07-13T13:24:45Z

In between soap and Washington, he actually completed a term as governor.

Comment from colby on 2009-07-13

2009-07-13T17:22:50Z

Meh, both of those guys were very good at controlling their own image. Not being a brainiac was PART of that image, but the idea that they were just bone stupid wasn't nearly as prevalent as we like to think.

Palin, however, has completely lost control of her public image. The resignation is really a reflection of that.